The Weather Forecasting Industry ?

P

Pilatus

Member
Location
cotswolds
As many industries besides agriculture put a lot of faith in weather forecasts ,I am surprised that Weather Forecasting Businesses "that charge for their services" do not have to comply with a British Standard of accuracy of weather forecasting like most other industries !!!;););)
Joking aside, I would be interested to know the weather forecasting service "TESCO"use ,during the summer months to predict when a warm spell is coming so that they can coordinate the supply train to provide for a glut of salad /barbecue supplies if a hot spell is coming.
I don't think the weather forecasting service they use would need to get their forecasts wrong very many times Tesco would be taking them to court for misleading information or some other way of going getting compensation for their inacurrate forecast.
As farmers put a lot of trust in weather forecasting services ,with much at stake,I do hope that those offering weather forecasts on this forum or elsewhere realise, the financial consequences if they are incorrect.
 
Steevo

Steevo

Member
Location
Gloucestershire
MX7 said:
As many industries besides agriculture put a lot of faith in weather forecasts ,I am surprised that Weather Forecasting Businesses "that charge for their services" do not have to comply with a British Standard of accuracy of weather forecasting like most other industries !!!;););)
Joking aside, I would be interested to know the weather forecasting service "TESCO"use ,during the summer months to predict when a warm spell is coming so that they can coordinate the supply train to provide for a glut of salad /barbecue supplies if a hot spell is coming.
I don't think the weather forecasting service they use would need to get their forecasts wrong very many times Tesco would be taking them to court for misleading information or some other way of going getting compensation for their inacurrate forecast.
As farmers put a lot of trust in weather forecasting services ,with much at stake,I do hope that those offering weather forecasts on this forum or elsewhere realise, the financial consequences if they are incorrect.
Click to expand...

I've got it....what we need is an assurance industry for the weather forecasters. That way we will know it's all being done to the minimum standards...and ideally British too! Now, what to call it.....Red Sky anyone??

It could then be expanded with "WWA - Whole Week Assurance" that would ensure that the forecast was correct from the start of the week, right through until the final end of the week, and not just for 90 hours at the start of the week.
 
Goweresque

Goweresque

Member
Location
North Wilts
Its not the same for retailers though is it? They don't need to know if its going to be dry and sunny in Leamington Spa on the 26th June, they just need to know roughly what conditions are going to be in for the entire UK (or general regions) for entire weeks at a time. So a forecast of 'Mixed showers and spells of sunshine this week in SW England, with average temps no higher than 18 degrees' will tell them all they need to know. Same goes for bad weather and the utility companies - they just need to know when storms are more likely so they can get prepared.

Farming is one of the few industries that needs very specific locational weather forecasts on a daily basis in order for it to function. I guess another is a related industry - fishing. I can't think of many others that are so weather dependent on a day to day basis.
 
METJEFFUK

METJEFFUK

Member
Media
Location
TRURO CORNWALL
One thing everyone must realise is weather forecasting is at the moment in time never going to be 100% right from the UKMO to the armature forecaster we can only give a guide to how the weather pattern will play out and in the UK it is extremely difficult to get the forecast right all the time, there are so many variables, especially when you go more 5 days ahead – so when you see long range forecast from anyone take it with a big pinch of salt the longer we go ahead more chance of the forecast going wrong .having said that forecasts up to 48 hrs are becoming more and more accurate.
Jeff
 
Paddington

Paddington

Member
Location
Soggy Shropshire
Don't know which forecasters our local supermarket chain uses but they often have plastic sledges and snow shovels by the checkout by October.
We had heavy showers yesterday 5mm and temperatures around 12C, yet the BBC online showed sunshine and 18C all day, perhaps a condition in the new BBC weather forecasting contract is that the winner has windows in their workplace ?
 
KMA

KMA

Member
Location
Dumfriesshire
Have to say the forecasters have had a hell of a job to do this year.

Am I right in thinking the weather is being more influenced by the continent this year rather than the azores and icelandic pressure areas? If it is then that makes the software less reliable if it bases things on previous patterns.
 
Goweresque

Goweresque

Member
Location
North Wilts
METJEFFUK said:
One thing everyone must realise is weather forecasting is at the moment in time never going to be 100% right from the UKMO to the armature forecaster we can only give a guide to how the weather pattern will play out and in the UK it is extremely difficult to get the forecast right all the time, there are so many variables, especially when you go more 5 days ahead – so when you see long range forecast from anyone take it with a big pinch of salt the longer we go ahead more chance of the forecast going wrong .having said that forecasts up to 48 hrs are becoming more and more accurate.
Jeff
Click to expand...


Says the man who just a week ago was posting the GFS chart for 10 days out as evidence we were going to be basking in sunshine for days on end.........
 
METJEFFUK

METJEFFUK

Member
Media
Location
TRURO CORNWALL
Just briefly what was said earlier and that too a certain extent backs up what I previously was saying weather is not an exact science maybe in the future will we be 100% accurate in forecasting more then 7 days ahead with any reliability but is a long off at the moment but what we can do with some confidence is see what trends the weather is taking dry/wet /cold/warm etc. So for expel next week is looking much more settled as the trend will for high pressure to take control, So in short if the forecast is more than 5 days ahead confidence will usually be low 48 hrs ahead confidence will be mod –to high that is why it’s always best to keep checking on a daily basis for updates .
bye for now
Jeff

Metjeffuk.com
 
Last edited:
Goweresque

Goweresque

Member
Location
North Wilts
METJEFFUK said:
Just briefly what was said earlier and that too a certain extent backs up what I previously was saying weather is not an exact science maybe in the future will we be 100% accurate in forecasting more then 7 days ahead with any reliability but is a long off at the moment but what we can do with some confidence is see what trends the weather is taking dry/wet /cold/warm etc. So for expel next week is looking much more settled as the trend will for high pressure to take control, So in short if the forecast is more than 5 days ahead confidence will usually be low 48 hrs ahead confidence will be mod –to high that is why it’s always best to keep checking on a daily basis for updates .
bye for now
Jeff

Metjeffuk.com
Click to expand...

And thats why sensible forecasters don't make forecasts 10 days out, just give vague indications, with heavy caveats, because more often than not they'll be wrong, which is no better than a dart board approach. So why do you keep popping up on here to tell us that its going to be lovely (or whatever) in 10 days time, or indeed any period of time greater than 4-5 days?

Being right 50% of the time isn't actually an achievement you know. I can do that with a coin.
 

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