- Location
- Bay of Plenty NZ
Why not? The scenario as I see it is not for Corbyn to win but for May to lose, same result just possibly the better of the two bad options for a number of the electorate.
Prepare yourselves for
- Thread starter holywell farmer
- Start date
- Location
- Limousin/Charentes toad land
Danllan
Member
- Location
- Sir Gar / Carms
No, the residual enrichment of Eurosceptic MPs will not allow for that.The division will just be back to pre 1973. Join the eu - remain as Noby no mates
Danllan
Member
- Location
- Sir Gar / Carms
Not that you have any record, interest or intention of trying to paint a bleak picture...Have you just come back from a tour in Afghanistan? I hear the whacky backy from those parts causes even the most balanced to suffer acute bouts of dillusionment!
A UNITED Tory party
You even have a date in mind. 2019.
What .... say around twenty to three on A Tuesday afternoon
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- Location
- Northumberland
Have you had a few nice bottles with your evening meal last night? A completely deluded post.Pro EU Tory MPs are still in the majority in the commons,and presumably if the ref vote was spread evenly,then you assume that 48% of all Tory party workers and activists etc,are just going to change their minds over night."due to general attrition and constituency selections"-just like momentum in the Labour party then,they can deselect all the Anna Soubrys and Nicky Morgans etc,and replace them with Rees-Mogg,Gove,and Leadsome clones.That will really win them the next election.not.(And you nicked my post about Amber Rudd,apart from her wafer thin majority)
- Location
- Northumberland
"residual enrichment of eurosceptic MPs"?-please enlighten us.
Danllan
Member
- Location
- Sir Gar / Carms
By deluded you mean something you disagree with, daft.
I don't assume there was an 'evenly' spread vote in the referendum, that is a stupid suggestion because it would require extrapolating it to UKIP and Liberal voters of whom, respectively, 95% voted to leave and 68% voted to remain. I was a Conservative member and still have many friend and family who are, so 61% of Conservative members voting to leave didn't surprise me; nor has the fact of the vast majority of those who wanted to Remain accepting the result. I do assume that very, very few who voted to Leave will change their minds.
You appear ignorant of the internal dynamics of the Conservative party, the constituency associations have, even post-Cameron, near full autonomy and are not afraid to use it. PPCs do need to be approved by central office, but it is a very, very rare thing for a candidate to be imposed, the associations do the choosing. During the referendum campaign it became clear that the membership, from constituency to constituency were at odds with Europhile MPs, the conclusion is obvious, the MPs will tow the line or be replaced.
If you understand what residual enrichment means this needs no explanation, add the newly selected PPCs and you will see a large majority of Eurosceptics.I dislike Momentum and the hard Left, no matter. There will be deselections via the Labour Party's own constitutional mechanisms, the same can and will happen in other parties, including the Conservatives.
Stop sulking, we will still trade with Ireland and you lot will dump the EU anyway when the going gets tough, or cease to be anything even resembling a nation state.
- Location
- Limousin/Charentes toad land
I think my scenario is far more likely, esp once the economic reality makes a real difference to real people.
Will the EU entertain the idea of a rejoining? Depends on the UK behaviour of the divorce?
Danllan
Member
- Location
- Sir Gar / Carms
I disagree regarding the various scenarios, but you could be right.
As for re-joining...
. There would have to be a referendum, can you imagine the likes of Anna Soubry, Chukka Umunna, Tony Blair and Nick Clegg selling that? It would go something like this:Europhiles: 'Hello everyone, yes, they'll let us back in, what's that, more money? Well, they want a bit from us, alright, a lot more really. The terms? Err... well, we have to join the Eurozone, we have to contribute to an EU army, we have to surrender even more sovereignty than before, obviously have no borders etc., and err, abide by the new amendment to the Constitution, sorry, Treaty. What new amendment? Err, the one that says you can never choose to leave the EU'.
Most people in the UK: 'F*ck off'.
And I have been accused of being delusional...
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- Location
- Limousin/Charentes toad land
I disagree regarding the various scenarios, but you could be right.
As for re-joining...
Europhiles: 'Hello everyone, yes, they'll let us back in, what's that, more money? Well, they want a bit from us, alright, a lot more really. The terms? Err... well, we have to join the Eurozone, we have to contribute to an EU army, we have to surrender even more sovereignty than before, obviously have no borders etc., and err, abide by the new amendment to the Constitution, sorry, Treaty. What new amendment? Err, the one that says you can never choose to leave the EU'.
Most people in the UK: 'F*ck off'.
And I have been accused of being delusional...
I am sure you thought this thing through?
As before, everything that was wrong was the EU s fault. Soon to come, everything but everything will be brexuts fault. The backlash will be huge, especially as things are sure to be worse than before
Danllan
Member
- Location
- Sir Gar / Carms
I note your complete lack of support for selling re-joining to the British people. We shall see.
- Location
- Northumberland
I am not Irish,but as English as you could get,and am now looking on Brexit as an observer,possibly the same as member Hindsight does.I know how the Tory party associations work;there is no secret there.According to your analysis,they will have alot of deselecting to do before the next election for them to be "united" again.About 60-70 in very pro remain seats.Many new Tory candidates in these will probably lose,or if they do win,i think they will "enjoy" a different kind of "residual enrichment" to the one you think.
- Location
- Limousin/Charentes toad land
I heard one real time arguer for leaving before last June. It was a loud somewhat the worse for drink English "lady" in our local French bar. Her argument was (loud enough for the whole bar to hear
) "if what we are doing isn't working then let's change it". Which did to some extent make some sense to me although I couldn't see why things weren't working to such a bad extent?Anyway, it is that, that you will be up against, when new no mates uk is not working as well as before, folk will very quickly be looking for change. Don't forget the majority of the 52% who voted with you have nothing like the passion for leaving the eu that you have (which I admit is admirable enough) and will soon loose patience with the difficult years you admit yourself will come at the beginning.
I don't see this in anything like the immediate future so the names and messages you use will be irrelevant.
What will be relèvent will be, for example, nhs waiting lists hitting 6 million, which would happen anyway but because of your beloved referendum, will now be solely the fault of Brexit.
How long was the uk knocking on europes door last time? 15 years? How long this next time? As I say, depends on the nature of the divorce. Walk away without paying your commitments and you could be looking at never again
Maybe the substantial numbers of remoaner Tories can be put in an old folks home, whilst the sensible Tories go about Brexit.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-tory-conservative-policy-forum-a8054106.html
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-tory-conservative-policy-forum-a8054106.html
Danllan
Member
- Location
- Sir Gar / Carms
I doubt that very much. As I wrote, we shall see.
I heard... How long was the uk knocking on europes door last time? 15 years? How long this next time? As I say, depends on the nature of the divorce. Walk away without paying your commitments and you could be looking at never
...The EU is in no way a fee trade organisation it is a large protectionist one. We will have some short term tightness, but following that we'll be fit and fighting in the world market. EU members will be alright for a while, but they can't put off the inevitable, it is a closed system and as such it simply won't be fit for trade on the bigger stage. EU states will be the ones struggling to pay for their services because they, well, even more of them, won't be able to balance their books.
As for walking away without paying... setting aside our net Half a Trillion Pounds of contributions to EU 'solidarity', setting all that aside, we have already said that the current EU budget will not suffer from our choice to leave. A perfectly fair stance to anyone other than a hater of an independent UK.
- Location
- Limousin/Charentes toad land
As I say, your faith I this comic strip is applaudable. Personally I hope you are correct as my own circumstances are for the next few years tied within a web of uk companies and the mass shambles that I foresee are certainly not in my interests. Doesn't change my opinion though, no matter how much I wish it
, i assume you wear blinkers?Yes the EU is protectionist. It protects its interests on the world market because it’s scale allows it to do that and because it’s downright necessary. If you think USA, China, Japan are not protectionist in the same way as EU, you are dreaming.
Cut loose from EU and with much smaller leveraging power, UK will most probably fail to get fair and balanced reciprocal trade agreements with those countries mentioned above. Relatively small compared to these, fractured political system, no experience in trade agreements, badly in need of new agreements all add up to a cluster fudge situation.
Danllan
Member
- Location
- Sir Gar / Carms
As I say, your faith I this comic strip is applaudable. Personally I hope you are correct as my own circumstances are for the next few years tied within a web of uk companies and the mass shambles that I foresee are certainly not in my interests. Doesn't change my opinion though, no matter how much I wish it
I find your faith in the EU and the EC remarkable and rather, regarding the EC in particular, rather suspect, I assume you wear a blindfold.
Revealing your true colours again? Oops. I have made no mention of other countries recently and wouldn't expect any to sign up for an agreement against their own interests, nor will we; mutually beneficial agreements are what it is all about. Remember that word, mutually, as Ireland ceases to be anything but a 'region' within the EU. No, hadn't mention other countries, but note that you haven't mentioned South Korea, Canada, Australia etc. all failing miserably and dying a long, lingering economic death in the real world market. Not.
Carp, whine, snipe and so on, it is amusing although a little sad. You do write as someone afraid, you needn't be, as I wrote earlier, we will still trade with Ireland on good terms. We'll probably still be your best friend when your people want their democracy back; friendly old John Bull helping Kathleen ni Houlihan back on to her own two feet again.
RagnarHairybreeks
Member
- Location
- Gloucester
To be fair Danllan " South Korea, Canada, Australia etc. all failing miserably and dying a long, lingering economic death in the real world market. Not."
Isn't really a fair comparison.
South Korea has a huge, high tech manufacturing base (we steadily destroyed or exported most of ours over the last three decades. Catapult schemes and things like the MTC are starting to push us back in the right direction, but very little, very late in the Global scheme of things.)
Canada and Australia. Both massive countries with huge natural wealth.
Britain is, I'm afraid, a small island with an ageing population, relatively little industry, dwindling natural resources and a huge social burden. Not really comparing eggs with eggs.
Isn't really a fair comparison.
South Korea has a huge, high tech manufacturing base (we steadily destroyed or exported most of ours over the last three decades. Catapult schemes and things like the MTC are starting to push us back in the right direction, but very little, very late in the Global scheme of things.)
Canada and Australia. Both massive countries with huge natural wealth.
Britain is, I'm afraid, a small island with an ageing population, relatively little industry, dwindling natural resources and a huge social burden. Not really comparing eggs with eggs.
I find your faith in the EU and the EC remarkable and rather, regarding the EC in particular, rather suspect, I assume you wear a blindfold.
Revealing your true colours again? Oops. I have made no mention of other countries recently and wouldn't expect any to sign up for an agreement against their own interests, nor will we; mutually beneficial agreements are what it is all about. Remember that word, mutually, as Ireland ceases to be anything but a 'region' within the EU. No, hadn't mention other countries, but note that you haven't mentioned South Korea, Canada, Australia etc. all failing miserably and dying a long, lingering economic death in the real world market. Not.
Carp, whine, snipe and so on, it is amusing although a little sad. You do write as someone afraid, you needn't be, as I wrote earlier, we will still trade with Ireland on good terms. We'll probably still be your best friend when your people want their democracy back; friendly old John Bull helping Kathleen ni Houlihan back on to her own two feet again.
Gosh, I’m impressed with your knowledge of Eire.
Now as to us being a region in Europe. Economically you are correct. The globe is now a minuscule place in terms of time and distance. We quite frankly have little other choice other than to be a very small part of a much larger economic entity. It doesn’t bother us. Need to keep food in mouths of babes as they say.
Even the mighty Britain’s place in the world has changed from one of total economic and military dominance to one of economic and military partnership with old adversaries and colonies! And yes, I know that might well be hard to accept, but it’s a reality. Of course the Tory party or a large part thereof have yet to come to terms with that reality. Their denial and blatant daily incompetence in the exit process now started, threatens to seriously damage Britain.