Combinables Price Tracker

yellow belly · Apr 30, 2018

Basis to futures is not a fixed amount it depends on paper supply and demand as well as physical supply and demand

If London future gets too high relative to other futures markets And currrency markets the would be a killing to be made this would only last seconds once it was spotted

As stated London futures are based on delivery to store any where in the uk so Kent is near to normal basis as there is more grain than consumers can use but more northern grain is needed by consumers so grain has to be moved normally grain moves a short distance so trucks can do several loads per day but when grain goes further it takes longer so there is a shortage of longer distance hauliers

Wilberforce · May 3, 2018

Feed Wheat at £160/ton ex farm today. North Shropshire.

4course · May 3, 2018

Sonoftheheir said:
Wheat futures on the r

Wilberforce said:
Feed Wheat at £160/ton ex farm today. North Shropshire.

and futures may are 144.70 ( no one has yet given a good enough explanation as to why the disparity which for spot/nearby is way out of kilter but even more of a concern to me is I sold a load last week at less than 160 so missed out yet again ,que sera sera. Who was it on here predicting wheat to be 200 by xmas when it was 130ish at the time last year

Baling Hay · May 3, 2018

4course said:
and futures may are 144.70 ( no one has yet given a good enough explanation as to why the disparity which for spot/nearby is way out of kilter but even more of a concern to me is I sold a load last week at less than 160 so missed out yet again ,que sera sera. Who was it on here predicting wheat to be 200 by xmas when it was 130ish at the time last year

I am pretty sure an explanation has been given multiple times as to why the cash price is much higher than the futures!!

How much would it cost to haul wheat from a futures store in Kent all the way up to Yorkshire?

Renaultman · May 3, 2018

Steakeater said:
I am pretty sure an explanation has been given multiple times as to why the cash price is much higher than the futures!!

How much would it cost to haul wheat from a futures store in Kent all the way up to Yorkshire?

£15.30 a tonne?

crazy_bull · May 3, 2018

Renaultman said:
£15.30 a tonne?

Try nearer £20 probably more,

Costs £15-6 to get from Huntingdon to North Yorkshire if you can find a haulier willing.

C B

Renaultman · May 3, 2018

crazy_bull said:
Try nearer £20 probably more,

Costs £15-6 to get from Huntingdon to North Yorkshire if you can find a haulier willing.

C B

I remember hauling intervention wheat out of Ely to Teesport for about a fiver a tonne. Many many years ago.

crazy_bull · May 3, 2018

Renaultman said:
I remember hauling intervention wheat out of Ely to Teesport for about a fiver a tonne. Many many years ago.

Fuel about 20p a litre?

C B

Renaultman · May 3, 2018

crazy_bull said:
Fuel about 20p a litre?

C B

No would be 40 or 50 I think. It was about 26ppl when I first started but used to run North at that time. all other costs would be about 1/4 of the price mind.

chaffcutter · May 3, 2018

@Wilberforce only a fiver haul to Cerestar?

Wilberforce · May 4, 2018

chaffcutter said:
@Wilberforce only a fiver haul to Cerestar?

Lloyds mill at Oswestry is the nearest.

Grain Buyer · May 4, 2018

there's a big difference between nearest and best paying this year. I'm collecting wheat from a farm that is less than a mile away from a chicken feed mill and taking it nearly 200 miles!! Crazy market dynamics this year.

chaffcutter · May 4, 2018

You on £160 yet then Andy?

Hampton · May 8, 2018

Is anyone using Richard Counsell’s stable price tool now new crop is £150+?
Looks useful and keeps the upside option open

crazy_bull · May 8, 2018

Hampton said:
Is anyone using Richard Counsell’s stable price tool now new crop is £150+?
Looks useful and keeps the upside option open

Is it actually running? Or still at theoretical stage.

C B

Hampton · May 8, 2018

crazy_bull said:
Is it actually running? Or still at theoretical stage.

C B

Think it’s running, website looks open for business

Hampton · May 8, 2018

crazy_bull said:
Is it actually running? Or still at theoretical stage.

C B

Out of interest, from the other side of the fence, if it is in operation, do you see it as a decent tool or a bit of a nonsense?

crazy_bull · May 8, 2018

Hampton said:
Out of interest, from the other side of the fence, if it is in operation, do you see it as a decent tool or a bit of a nonsense?

If he can make it work, (from what I understand he needs to get many sectors of agriculture involved for the model to work, even globally, think the old adage up horn down corn etc, it meant his financial backers spread their risk about, else they are massively exposed to a single market) then I think it is good, he is certainly a clever chap and has some wizz kids in the background so am sure he will make it work if he can.

C B

Hampton · May 9, 2018

crazy_bull said:
If he can make it work, (from what I understand he needs to get many sectors of agriculture involved for the model to work, even globally, think the old adage up horn down corn etc, it meant his financial backers spread their risk about, else they are massively exposed to a single market) then I think it is good, he is certainly a clever chap and has some wizz kids in the background so am sure he will make it work if he can.

C B

He's obviously a switched on chap, but what I couldn't understand was why he needed to use the 'horn' sector to cover the risk. Surely he could use virtually any other commodity? Or is it just that down corn up horn means that the hedge is a proven trait?

crazy_bull · May 9, 2018

Hampton said:
He's obviously a switched on chap, but what I couldn't understand was why he needed to use the 'horn' sector to cover the risk. Surely he could use virtually any other commodity? Or is it just that down corn up horn means that the hedge is a proven trait?

He was looking for trends I think, but the down corn up horn was the one that inspired him I believe, and by getting other sectors of Ag to use price insurance it spread the risk. To use a non Ag commodity it would require the producer of that commodity wanting to take out price insurance. By default that would require a choppy uncertain market else why would you want price insurance, it is a product for primary producers only, so big mining firms probably don't fit the bill (last bit I'm not sure on) just remembering what he said at the Sentry Conference.

C B

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