Combinables Price Tracker

Clive

Staff Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Lichfield
Just sold the last 18% of 2017 harvest wheat for £200/t for June 2019. Very nearly sold this around 6weeks ago for £165/t. That gives me an average of £162.50 for harvest 2017 wheat. All feed wheat.

Attention now turns to 2018 crop marketing whilst keeping a very close eye on 2019 and 2020 as well.

Had 125t milling wheat of carry over from H17 that I'm glad i didn't get around to moving now - didn't expect markets to get quite this high but always thought (unfortunately) there would be no pressure on storage space this year !

Have to say I'm beginning to suffer from "rabbit in the headlight" syndrome now and I expect a lot of farmers are


so esteemed TFF experts ..................... where is the top ?
 

Daniel

Member
Had 125t milling wheat of carry over from H17 that I'm glad i didn't get around to moving now - didn't expect markets to get quite this high but always thought (unfortunately) there would be no pressure on storage space this year !

Have to say I'm beginning to suffer from "rabbit in the headlight" syndrome now and I expect a lot of farmers are


so esteemed TFF experts ..................... where is the top ?

Unless we see some uplift in meat, milk and egg prices I should think feed wheat is getting to the limits of affordability. Which would mean demand dropping?

Got a shed which needs clearing in September, can get £165 for 2019 and £158 for September 2020 at the moment.

Have sold a lot of wheat for below that in my short career!
 

franklin

New Member
I keep getting texts from a rep along the lines of "here is a reason prices have got to the top" then another one later in the day saying it's gone up two quid.

However the vivergo pull has slowed as for the last few years our ex farm price has been the futures price. Now it seems futures back to our delivered price. I'd like to see two hundred for November as my sell point. I don't like it in the shed forever.
 

Clive

Staff Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Lichfield
most of the wheat producing world does seem to be in a bit of a state right now however and world stock not exactly abundant

much as I feel the top is close where will all the wheat come from ?
 

Tom.6420

Member
Livestock Farmer
Unless we see some uplift in meat, milk and egg prices I should think feed wheat is getting to the limits of affordability. Which would mean demand dropping?

Got a shed which needs clearing in September, can get £165 for 2019 and £158 for September 2020 at the moment.

Have sold a lot of wheat for below that in my short career!
True, but for the guys who have just spent £35/bird on a brand new shed of 32 000, and quarterly mortgage payments of £35000 there's no choice but to keep buying feed wheat at any cost. This probably applies to a lot of livestock sectors at the moment.
 

Clive

Staff Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Lichfield
True, but for the guys who have just spent £35/bird on a brand new shed of 32 000, and quarterly mortgage payments of £35000 there's no choice but to keep buying feed wheat at any cost. This probably applies to a lot of livestock sectors at the moment.


yes only those without debt / rent or employed labour can afford to switch of a production system .................... this is not many farmers !


you can trade without profit for years but you only run out of cashflow the once !
 

Daniel

Member
True, but for the guys who have just spent £35/bird on a brand new shed of 32 000, and quarterly mortgage payments of £35000 there's no choice but to keep buying feed wheat at any cost. This probably applies to a lot of livestock sectors at the moment.

Yes but the more extensive cattle farmer can offload a few animals to market, maybe drop that far flung bit of grazing land etc?

The chap with no mortgage on his poultry sheds can produce cheaper than the chap with the mortgage, would be a nice position to be in!
 

Tom.6420

Member
Livestock Farmer
Yes but the more extensive cattle farmer can offload a few animals to market, maybe drop that far flung bit of grazing land etc?

The chap with no mortgage on his poultry sheds can produce cheaper than the chap with the mortgage, would be a nice position to be in!
Yes he can, but he's probably not a huge feed wheat buyer anyway. Point is even at unaffordable levels demand might not fall off as fast as you think it might.
 

Brisel

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Midlands
Had 125t milling wheat of carry over from H17 that I'm glad i didn't get around to moving now - didn't expect markets to get quite this high but always thought (unfortunately) there would be no pressure on storage space this year !

Have to say I'm beginning to suffer from "rabbit in the headlight" syndrome now and I expect a lot of farmers are


so esteemed TFF experts ..................... where is the top ?

Expert? Ex = has been. 'spurt = a drip under pressure! :D

£200/t is a big resistance line IMO. Expect lots of sales of paper that keep it no higher than that. UK wheat is £10/t too expensive to export so forced harvest sales will have to go somewhere else. You're not alone in believing that store space will be ok so I expect a lot of physical grain staying within these shores. For 7th August there isn't reliable information around as to how bad the NW European harvest really is yet so IMO this is a sentimental market not a fundamental one. Buy a rumour, sell the fact.

Volatility is assured!

My bet is £200/t LIFFE Nov 18 is the peak, so £4.75 above where it is now.
 

SFI - What % were you taking out of production?

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Red Tractor drops launch of green farming scheme amid anger from farmers

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As reported in Independent


quote: “Red Tractor has confirmed it is dropping plans to launch its green farming assurance standard in April“

read the TFF thread here: https://thefarmingforum.co.uk/index.php?threads/gfc-was-to-go-ahead-now-not-going-ahead.405234/
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