Combinables Price Tracker

Clive

Staff Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Lichfield
Isn't it all about events?Who knows what 2019 will bring
The wheat market will either be:greedy: for those still to sell or:wtf:
As they say 'fortune favours the brave"
So too early to call Clives hand out!

Agree - long way to go yet

Look at the last season we were over £200 ex for feed, Iirc it didn’t happen until spring ?
 

Neddy flanders

Member
BASE UK Member
£45/t premium is fixed but not the feed base

Yes it was close to (but never quite) £200/t ex for a short period but it was a lot lower for much longer periods

With hindsight I should have sold some but was up to my neck in other things at the time so didn’t get round to it. I was foolishly waiting for that magic £200 ex figure I guess !

Time will tell though the current £185 June I could get plus £45 min premium I have locked is hardly a disaster !

I did sell all OSR at £348 and oats at £200 back in September so got something right back at the highs

I have had a good run of hitting close to market top for a several years recently - only normal to get it wrong somtines as well !

It’s not over until the fat lady sings !
cant ever remember being offered £45 premium?? is that for Montana? cant be for standard Grp 1?
 

Brisel

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Midlands
Lot can happen yet - especially with currency / Brexit going on

I’m still bullish on h18 crop

Wish I had sold some h19 new crop though when it was 170’s ex ! Or at least taken an option for £8 I was offered

£8 is cheap for that far ahead. On or out of the money?

I’m not so bullish. Much of the current market is only weak currency not bullish fundamentals. Slowing Russian exports and a smaller UK old crop are helping. 80% o/c sold here and pushing to get it cleared before 29th March too. I’m bullish to new crop but have taken a bit of cover on wheat.
 
£8 is cheap for that far ahead. On or out of the money?

I’m not so bullish. Much of the current market is only weak currency not bullish fundamentals. Slowing Russian exports and a smaller UK old crop are helping. 80% o/c sold here and pushing to get it cleared before 29th March too. I’m bullish to new crop but have taken a bit of cover on wheat.

Don't know how you can be bullish new crop, increased plantings in UK and Europe, primarily replacing lost rapeseed acreage. Corn still dirt cheap and will continue to replace wheat and barley in rations.
 

Honest john

Member
Location
Fenland
Don't know how you can be bullish new crop, increased plantings in UK and Europe, primarily replacing lost rapeseed acreage. Corn still dirt cheap and will continue to replace wheat and barley in rations.

It's another season. Wet June = low yields of crap sold forward at 150-160.

The only certainty is it won't be like 2018.
 

David.

Member
Mixed Farmer
Location
J11 M40
Don't know how you can be bullish new crop, increased plantings in UK and Europe, primarily replacing lost rapeseed acreage. Corn still dirt cheap and will continue to replace wheat and barley in rations.
You were singing that song in May, when £140 was over valued.
No offence meant, but you always come here with bearish sentiments, and always with the negative waves.
 

Clive

Staff Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Lichfield
So why aren’t you doing any now at 185 plus 45 ? You have to be super bullish to ignore that

Currency

It could swing massively with all the Brexit stuff going on

I’m pretty sure we are heading for no deal and have been since the referendum - I see the £ potentially loosing a lot more yet than it has

So I am bullish right now I guess hence no sales. I certainly dont see old crop price collapsing, it’s just a question of do markets have much upside still in the last 6months of the marketing period
 

Clive

Staff Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Lichfield
£8 is cheap for that far ahead. On or out of the money?

I’m not so bullish. Much of the current market is only weak currency not bullish fundamentals. Slowing Russian exports and a smaller UK old crop are helping. 80% o/c sold here and pushing to get it cleared before 29th March too. I’m bullish to new crop but have taken a bit of cover on wheat.

Looking back it was cheap at the time and I should have done some at £8

A crystal ball is always a useful trading tool though !
 

Andrew K

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Essex
£45/t premium is fixed but not the feed base

Yes it was close to (but never quite) £200/t ex for a short period but it was a lot lower for much longer periods

With hindsight I should have sold some but was up to my neck in other things at the time so didn’t get round to it. I was foolishly waiting for that magic £200 ex figure I guess !

Time will tell though the current £185 June I could get plus £45 min premium I have locked is hardly a disaster !

I did sell all OSR at £348 and oats at £200 back in September so got something right back at the highs

I have had a good run of hitting close to market top for a several years recently - only normal to get it wrong somtines as well !

It’s not over until the fat lady sings !
Sold little here too, but have like you sorted premiums.
Feel that prices could move by the time we get to Brexit anyway as fundamentals indicate lower stocks worldwide, Russians may have to put a lid on exports due to high internal prices or possibly the ports will freeze over. Obviously the pound may well nosedive if we get a no deal with the EU, so all to play for, IMO.
 

Clive

Staff Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Lichfield
Sold little here too, but have like you sorted premiums.
Feel that prices could move by the time we get to Brexit anyway as fundamentals indicate lower stocks worldwide, Russians may have to put a lid on exports due to high internal prices or possibly the ports will freeze over. Obviously the pound may well nosedive if we get a no deal with the EU, so all to play for, IMO.

and you didn’t even mention Trump !

Sometimes fortune favours the brave !
 

chipchap

Member
Mixed Farmer
Location
South Shropshire
No doubt things will be volatile because of BREXIT, however the European economies are, Germany excepted, in far worse shape than ours.
I feel the pound could well strengthen later in 2019, even against the Dollar if Trump is left in charge for too long.
 

fudge

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Lincolnshire.
I agree with the above. Price has spiked this season, historically these spikes very often only last one season. God only knows what will happen but not sell 100% carries it’s own risks. Of course in biblical times droughts lasted 7 years in which case ignore the above! BTW we have sold 90% of harvest 2018 and 1/2 a ton/ac of 2019 averaging £170 feed, plus some small premiums for that lot.

Like chipchap I am not convinced any down turn in currency value will last the whole of the next marketing season. Economically Brexit won’t be “that” bad, and the greater certainty will give traders other stuff to think about.
 

SFI - What % were you taking out of production?

  • 0 %

    Votes: 79 42.5%
  • Up to 25%

    Votes: 65 34.9%
  • 25-50%

    Votes: 30 16.1%
  • 50-75%

    Votes: 3 1.6%
  • 75-100%

    Votes: 3 1.6%
  • 100% I’ve had enough of farming!

    Votes: 6 3.2%

Red Tractor drops launch of green farming scheme amid anger from farmers

  • 1,287
  • 1
As reported in Independent


quote: “Red Tractor has confirmed it is dropping plans to launch its green farming assurance standard in April“

read the TFF thread here: https://thefarmingforum.co.uk/index.php?threads/gfc-was-to-go-ahead-now-not-going-ahead.405234/
Top