Brexit and lamb prices.

Frank-the-Wool

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
East Sussex
Sheep numbers can quickly be bred up like they
were before foot and mouth and then watch
supply and demand dictate prices.:cry:

Yes but will they?
We were discussing this and don't believe this is as likely and will become more like what occurred in NZ when subsidies disappeared.
With the end of BPS and ELMS still on the drawing board for for several years then higher prices for stock may well not lead to more sheep this time.
Grain prices are rising rapidly and there will be a much greater incentive to plough land up and as such rents may well increase or at least not reduce on the better land. The poorer higher land will be encouraged to plant trees or rewilded which will make keeping sheep more difficult.

We have already seen significant breeding improvements in many flocks with genetics increasing growth rates and prolificacy and this will surely continue. However there will be even more pressure to utilise grass and forage with concentrate feed prices now over £300 a ton and unlikely to be reducing.
Then there is the question of who will do the work on these extra sheep? There are not loads of young people in this area wanting to move electric fences in the wet cold and mud or going out on a Sunday morning when the Pikeys have driven through the electric fences.

Nearly two weeks of better sheep prices reminds me of the saying that "one Swallow doesn't make a Summer"! Many large store producers who sold lambs in late summer and the autumn saw better prices but not enough to encourage flock enlargement.
 

glasshouse

Member
Location
lothians
Yes but will they?
We were discussing this and don't believe this is as likely and will become more like what occurred in NZ when subsidies disappeared.
With the end of BPS and ELMS still on the drawing board for for several years then higher prices for stock may well not lead to more sheep this time.
Grain prices are rising rapidly and there will be a much greater incentive to plough land up and as such rents may well increase or at least not reduce on the better land. The poorer higher land will be encouraged to plant trees or rewilded which will make keeping sheep more difficult.

We have already seen significant breeding improvements in many flocks with genetics increasing growth rates and prolificacy and this will surely continue. However there will be even more pressure to utilise grass and forage with concentrate feed prices now over £300 a ton and unlikely to be reducing.
Then there is the question of who will do the work on these extra sheep? There are not loads of young people in this area wanting to move electric fences in the wet cold and mud or going out on a Sunday morning when the Pikeys have driven through the electric fences.

Nearly two weeks of better sheep prices reminds me of the saying that "one Swallow doesn't make a Summer"! Many large store producers who sold lambs in late summer and the autumn saw better prices but not enough to encourage flock enlargement.
Cereal prices will drop like a stone come harvest
 

Tim W

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
Wiltshire
I’d have no qualms about running sheep on arable breaks, and behind electric fencing. However, I would want a base to work from, either owned or with some security of tenure, otherwise one wet winter, or a landlord changing his mind, could lead you into a position where your grazing disappears overnight.

Haven’t you been in a similar position, where you’ve had to reduce ewe numbers at short notice because of someone else’s decisions? That’s got to be hard enough with a flying flock of mules, but must be heartbreaking if it’s a flock that you’ve been spending time & money improving.:(
I know when we use to take lots of grass keep round home, we regularly used to lose blocks at short notice, usually to a friend of the landlord’s agent, who would take it & trash it for a year, before they came back and offered it to us again.😡 I was certainly glad of the stability offered by getting off that hamster wheel.
The luxury of a stable base would be great but it's not the reality for many so i look at the loss/gain of land as an opportunity to expand /reduce numbers ----no other way of doing it at the moment
 
Most sheep farmers are farming in areas where arable isn't possible. So the fact they are going to have to sell their farms to buy expensive arable land to then farm sheep along an arable operation is unrealistic. Or you have arable farmers suddenly having a desire to chase sheep around in the rain in winter instead? It's all well saying from an industry point of view but the industry needs the people in it.

the future of the sheep industry is in the land of the combine (or at least partly), to think it’s going to be restricted to the far flung hills I’d a bit backward. It’s an open market, folk need to think smart, make contacts etc. For example every year we contract finish all of the lambs from a marginal welsh hill farm, they don’t sell as store and take the hit, they send them here, I fatten them and kill them at 18-20 kg on the hook, which at 5.50 a kilo is pretty tidy for welsh lambs with balls and horns, allows them to focus on the ewes etc and maximise their income from the sheep they hve.
 

MDL POWERUP

Member
Agree industry needs people to run/work it
But if you think we are the only people who can do that you are wrong
For every shepherd who can't/wont adapt/move there will be others that will rise to the challenge, it's always been that way

Graziers on arable rotations are likely to be share farmers/contract graziers rather than land owners
You don't need to own land to farm ----in fact buying land and expecting to earn a living from farming and a return on investment is probably a poor expectation to have ?

All of which is a long way from brexit and lamb prices :)
Whole communities in some places have been based on livestock farming for hundreds of years. Expecting them all move to an arable area to set up electric fences and play second fiddle to arable farmers is not realistic. And just to say someone will replace them seems a bit foolish, how much is passed down from the older generation?
I agree that buying land doesn't make sense to an accountant. But if I could I would. Once bought it's not easily spent and only the bank can take it off you.
the future of the sheep industry is in the land of the combine (or at least partly), to think it’s going to be restricted to the far flung hills I’d a bit backward. It’s an open market, folk need to think smart, make contacts etc. For example every year we contract finish all of the lambs from a marginal welsh hill farm, they don’t sell as store and take the hit, they send them here, I fatten them and kill them at 18-20 kg on the hook, which at 5.50 a kilo is pretty tidy for welsh lambs with balls and horns, allows them to focus on the ewes etc and maximise their income from the sheep they hve.
I'm not arguing that lowland or arable ground is not for sheep. But to think we can replace all hill bred lamb by farming sheep on arable land is backward. As you said you finish Welsh lambs, bred on a hill.
 
If u want to keep sheep with electric fences u wont do it for long
Especially when every breakout will be a pr disaster with your “ landlord”

What world do you live in? Huge numbers of folk run sheep all year round on electric. I’ve spent the last five years running circa 1500-3000 breeding ewes at one block almost entirely behind electric their whole lives, and most lambs we produce or buy in and fatten never see a stock fence. Yes they do break out but usually because they are hungry, the weather is sh!t or a deer has smashed the fence / dog has pushed them through. Plenty of grants for stock fencing if arable farms want to hVe a crack at that to.
 
Of course not --- i just speak from experience of running these systems in arable/lowland/high human traffic areas
It's easy enough to do

Don't worry about it ---you run your system & others will do it differently, it's fine :)

To be honest the more folk with a “that’s impossible” attitude the better, the less that try the more chance there is for some of us to succeed. The last few years have seen a massive influx of folk all trying to do the same thing in the same areas, which leads to a bit of an issue at times .....
 
Whole communities in some places have been based on livestock farming for hundreds of years. Expecting them all move to an arable area to set up electric fences and play second fiddle to arable farmers is not realistic. And just to say someone will replace them seems a bit foolish, how much is passed down from the older generation?
I agree that buying land doesn't make sense to an accountant. But if I could I would. Once bought it's not easily spent and only the bank can take it off you.

I'm not arguing that lowland or arable ground is not for sheep. But to think we can replace all hill bred lamb by farming sheep on arable land is backward. As you said you finish Welsh lambs, bred on a hill.

I didn’t say we could replace them all, but sadly they need to be able to produce a store at a price that makes them competitive and at which they make money if they want to survive. Or to partner up with a finishing block. To be honest I can produce lambs here cheaper than I can buy in off a hill farm ......
 

andybk

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
Mendips Somerset
Whole communities in some places have been based on livestock farming for hundreds of years. Expecting them all move to an arable area to set up electric fences and play second fiddle to arable farmers is not realistic. And just to say someone will replace them seems a bit foolish, how much is passed down from the older generation?
I agree that buying land doesn't make sense to an accountant. But if I could I would. Once bought it's not easily spent and only the bank can take it off you.

Serious Question as per @CopperBeech post above , if you had a choice would you sell as stores as per normal year on the bottom of the market sep/ oct , or would you take a punt and send them (maybe your best ) to a finisher and sell after christmas into spring , or have them back and sell as breeders and take that rise (hopefully) yourself , less cost of job ? as long as clear rules over issues like weather / scab / cocci / worms are set up .
This of course might mean buying better genetics for finishing rather than donkeys that look good in a store ring , but can only be a good thing long term
 

Tim W

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
Wiltshire
Whole communities in some places have been based on livestock farming for hundreds of years. Expecting them all move to an arable area to set up electric fences and play second fiddle to arable farmers is not realistic. And just to say someone will replace them seems a bit foolish, how much is passed down from the older generation?
This is the human part of the equation & of course the most difficult to square
I don't expect farmers of sheep will all move from one area to another ---if they are tied to the land then they will have to make a go of it probably by taking the govt. shilling , keeping less sheep & finding other sources of income off farm if not they may move elsewhere and do something else----we may not like it but that's the reality
New people are coming into the industry with more open minds/fewer ties(land & family)/willingness to relocate and these are the people that are setting up to replace any shortfall caused by lower stocking rates in the hills etc
Not all of what the older generation can pass down is always relevant in the new world

The world is constantly changing ---if you are in a generation where there is major change afoot you can go with it or try to ride it out
Often the ones that survive are those that adapt and move on
 

MDL POWERUP

Member
I didn’t say we could replace them all, but sadly they need to be able to produce a store at a price that makes them competitive and at which they make money if they want to survive. Or to partner up with a finishing block. To be honest I can produce lambs here cheaper than I can buy in off a hill farm ......
All of the above is true, and I have a deal where I finish or grow hill lambs on in return for gimmer lambs which works well. My issue is, on arable rotations you will not have enough keep through spring,early summer to breed these lambs to replace the hill lambs that are lost. Otherwise why aren't you breeding everything yourself now and making more money? I have no issue with other people finishing their lambs etc, quite the opposite. It also puts the whole sheep industry at the mercy of the arable industry which could be a potential disaster. If more and more pesticides etc are being banned more acres are going to be needed for arable in lowland situations to make enough produce.
 

MDL POWERUP

Member
Serious Question as per @CopperBeech post above , if you had a choice would you sell as stores as per normal year on the bottom of the market sep/ oct , or would you take a punt and send them (maybe your best ) to a finisher and sell after christmas into spring , or have them back and sell as breeders and take that rise (hopefully) yourself , less cost of job ? as long as clear rules over issues like weather / scab / cocci / worms are set up .
This of course might mean buying better genetics for finishing rather than donkeys that look good in a store ring , but can only be a good thing long term
I'm not a hill or upland farmer myself, but I like the idea of sending to finishers (myself being one) bit try to imply the uplands hills are no longer the place for sheep is not the answer as it will present shortfalls I'm the industry.
 

Nithsdale

Member
Livestock Farmer
There's an awful lot of arable ground can't carry many sheep before it's in a bloody mess - especially in the more recent wet winters we've seen.

I can see SOME sheep being brought back into arable areas in the future... but I can't see it being the be all future of the sheep industry some on here seem to be suggesting.

Us upland boys won't be rushing down the valley anytime soon
 

andybk

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
Mendips Somerset
I'm not a hill or upland farmer myself, but I like the idea of sending to finishers (myself being one) bit try to imply the uplands hills are no longer the place for sheep is not the answer as it will present shortfalls I'm the industry.
Thats in no way what im implying , they will always be the nurseries and summer of the uk flock, just a new way of doing things to protect and enhance the environment, we practically do it now , just need a bit more incentive needed for the arable boys to follow suit , and in my experience its the agronomist that is the stumbling block , whether thats to do with kick back of agri chems or more work (or variables ) if sheep graze in winter i dont know .But thats usually the reason used not to graze
 

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