If I could answer that with certainty I'd be doing something other than farming.
Fertiliser Price Tracker
- Thread starter TFF
- Start date
DeeGee
Member
- Location
- North East Wales
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Don’t panic! Don’t panic! There’s going to be a wheat shortage and no bread on the shelves, but don’t panic buy!!If only the BBC would do a press release about a wheat shortage
Will Blackburn
Member
- Location
- Cheshire
10% would be quite a move, it would be very significant, not unreasonable to think it may double or more. Depends on stocks.
It doesn't take a great deal of imagination does it!
I'll be looking into wheat put options this week, as with Nov22 price where it is there's money to be made but I'd hate to miss out on the potential for £300/ton by selling now, and the thought of losing the my shirt at £150/ ton by going long with no cover doesn't bare thinging about.
10% is a fraction of the potential reduction I'd say, on prime acres growing 10t/ha that's only a 1t reduction in yeild.
If you account for 10% marginal land out of production, 10% reduced yeild on prime acres and then unforseen weather events 20-30% reduction doesnt sound that daft does it
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- Location
- Northern Ireland
Have you taken a long position yourself yet?
Well I've planted as much as usual and booked fert at an extortionate price, so yes I'm long, but not all in, yet.
By selling nothing and commiting to grow the stuff I've took a long position. That's about as much risk as I'm prepared to take, but if I had money to risk, buying wheat futures at nov22 price even as high as it is could still be a big earner.
- Location
- Northern Ireland
Yeah. Technically Chicago wheat still in a strong uptrend. Corn looks possibly better value.
Interesting to see soyameal has retraced nearly all of its spike and nearly back at pre covid levels. Stocks are said to be good.
Do you know what the overlap between soya and corn/wheat is? Is high priced wheat/corn likely to replace much soya planting?
Interesting to see soyameal has retraced nearly all of its spike and nearly back at pre covid levels. Stocks are said to be good.
Do you know what the overlap between soya and corn/wheat is? Is high priced wheat/corn likely to replace much soya planting?
Yeah, yeah!
We all know you bought all yours before the price rises.
Haven't sold any wheat or osr yet. Well done.
Could the mods make it a sticky at top of fertiliser and combinable price tracker threads?
No point taking it out on me because you have it wrong this year
I have just kept going in the same way I always do, always buy fert early and always hold crops late. Seems it’s my year this year
don’t always get it right though. Just look at what’s happening in the world at the moment. Do you think it’s all going to unwind in 5 months when you will want fert on your farm? If you are going to plant the crop you will want the fertiliser (nitrogen). Good luck
Im no trader or market analyst but logic would suggest planting crops requiring less nitrogen use at present, soya, lentils and canola would be the preferred options over high n use crops like wheat and corn.
How each grower will react would depend in their personal outlook on the market and perceived risk, as I said before the UK has a very dependable climate compared to other regions, we'll always get a crop, wether we can get it off the field is our main concern.
Will Blackburn
Member
- Location
- Cheshire
5t/ha is a good crop on a world basis. If you look at world wheat production figures a 10% reduction is unprecedented, so has potential to produce unprecedented price rises. 20-30% would have a lot of poor people go hungry.
CORK
Member
- Location
- East Cork, Ireland
This is what I’ve been thinking with some weeks. To me, it’s like watching a car crash in slow motion and I hope I’m wrong.
The term “unprecedented” gets over used but the current situation is that.
A number of consecutive harvests where the stock/use ratio has been falling and a weather event in the NW of the United States leading to high world grain prices. The 21 harvest price for OSR must be a record in itself and it continues to rise.
Now throw in the fertiliser factor which effects every region of the world……
Many regions of the world are never sure they’ll have a crop when they plant a seed. Drought, hail etc can wipe it out. Many of these farmers don’t have a guaranteed payment from the government like we do. These growers may well not risk normal rates of expensive fertiliser (if they can get/afford it).
All we need then is another weather issue in an important crop region and hey presto, you have a grain scarcity of the level that governments stop exports to feed their own population/curb internal inflation.
As any leader of a country will know, the quickest way to have your head removed from your shoulders is to have your population hungry…..
There's quite a few people with the lights off already around the world, Lebanon, China and parts of India.
People already wondering if they will be cold or hungry this winter in the UK. Russia putting export taxes on grain exports so it's people didn't go hungry...... the balance sheet is already pretty tight.
The world's gone mad and China's trying it's best to start a world war over Taiwan. Poor people going hungry is already happening.
Will Blackburn
Member
- Location
- Cheshire
The BBC aren’t reporting this in the same fashion as the poxy fuel shortages. Doesn’t suit the we don’t need farmers narrative.
Tarw Coch
Member
- Location
- Bottom of Wats Dyke
I very much doubt any leader in the western world has considered that a remote possibility, I’m sure some in the third world will be well aware of it though and will have protection in place to try to stop it happening
Just look at the CF shutdown, oh Jesus were going to run out of co2, not a mention of the farmers can't get any bloody fertiliser. People are yet to see the bigger picture here!
- Location
- Shropshire
I’ve already sold some in the £180s. Will likely do a couple more loads once drilled up.
Like to sell my harvest movements early in case things go south. Rest can then wait for any recovery
Tarw Coch
Member
- Location
- Bottom of Wats Dyke
They probably ain’t aware of the possibilities, no shops or supermarkets have run out of food yet, nor will they in the near future. Maybe a few empty shelves here and there but nothing overly dramatic, there was no cooking oil in local Morrisons the other night but not a problem as there was plenty in Aldi.