If I could answer that with certainty I'd be doing something other than farming.if overall world grain production dropped 10% what would the price do?
If I could answer that with certainty I'd be doing something other than farming.if overall world grain production dropped 10% what would the price do?
Don’t panic! Don’t panic! There’s going to be a wheat shortage and no bread on the shelves, but don’t panic buy!!If only the BBC would do a press release about a wheat shortage
10% would be quite a move, it would be very significant, not unreasonable to think it may double or more. Depends on stocks.if overall world grain production dropped 10% what would the price do?
It doesn't take a great deal of imagination does it!.
Don’t panic! Don’t panic! There’s going to be a wheat shortage and no bread on the shelves, but don’t panic buy!!
10% is a fraction of the potential reduction I'd say, on prime acres growing 10t/ha that's only a 1t reduction in yeild.10% would be quite a move, it would be very significant, not unreasonable to think it may double or more. Depends on stocks.
It will certainly have an effect on demand, the whole world will use considerably less nitrogen this year, there is no question about that.
It may not have a great effect on fertiliser companies turnover though, due to high price, but if will effect their bottom line if their costs of production are to be believed.
My Australian contact has told me,that in his opinion wheat at $370/£200 per ton isn't that appealing. Bear in mind this is marginal land with an average yeild of 2t/ha and a high of 3t/ha. If he's already debating if it's worth the risk, which is very present in western Australia and a vast area of canada (think serious drought and combining thousands of hectares just to collect next year's seed) then a vast area of the world is thinking the same.
In the UK we really don't have these kind of concerns, the worst that could happen is prices drop just after final fert application, when it's too late to fold your hand and we achieve a poor yeild. Even a drought by UK standards provides enough yeild to provide some return on investment.
It's my opinion that we will see a vastly reduced area of marginal land planted this year and subsequently a vastly reduced use of nitrogen, combined with the reduced usage on prime acres will add up to a massive reduction in use.
My greatest surprise is that the funds aren't going all in on next year's wheat futures yet, as surely a reduced volume is to be expected.
Well I've planted as much as usual and booked fert at an extortionate price, so yes I'm long, but not all in, yet.Have you taken a long position yourself yet?
Yeah, yeah!
We all know you bought all yours before the price rises.
Haven't sold any wheat or osr yet. Well done.
Could the mods make it a sticky at top of fertiliser and combinable price tracker threads?
Im no trader or market analyst but logic would suggest planting crops requiring less nitrogen use at present, soya, lentils and canola would be the preferred options over high n use crops like wheat and corn.Yeah. Technically Chicago wheat still in a strong uptrend. Corn looks possibly better value.
Interesting to see soyameal has retraced nearly all of its spike and nearly back at pre covid levels. Stocks are said to be good.
Do you know what the overlap between soya and corn/wheat is? Is high priced wheat/corn likely to replace much soya planting?
5t/ha is a good crop on a world basis. If you look at world wheat production figures a 10% reduction is unprecedented, so has potential to produce unprecedented price rises. 20-30% would have a lot of poor people go hungry.10% is a fraction of the potential reduction I'd say, on prime acres growing 10t/ha that's only a 1t reduction in yeild.
If you account for 10% marginal land out of production, 10% reduced yeild on prime acres and then unforseen weather events 20-30% reduction doesnt sound that daft does it
This is what I’ve been thinking with some weeks. To me, it’s like watching a car crash in slow motion and I hope I’m wrong.10% is a fraction of the potential reduction I'd say, on prime acres growing 10t/ha that's only a 1t reduction in yeild.
If you account for 10% marginal land out of production, 10% reduced yeild on prime acres and then unforseen weather events 20-30% reduction doesnt sound that daft does it
There's quite a few people with the lights off already around the world, Lebanon, China and parts of India.5t/ha is a good crop on a world basis. If you look at world wheat production figures a 10% reduction is unprecedented, so has potential to produce unprecedented price rises. 20-30% would have a lot of poor people go hungry.
The BBC aren’t reporting this in the same fashion as the poxy fuel shortages. Doesn’t suit the we don’t need farmers narrative.There's quite a few people with the lights off already around the world, Lebanon, China and parts of India.
People already wondering if they will be cold or hungry this winter in the UK. Russia putting export taxes on grain exports so it's people didn't go hungry...... the balance sheet is already pretty tight.
The world's gone mad and China's trying it's best to start a world war over Taiwan. Poor people going hungry is already happening.
I very much doubt any leader in the western world has considered that a remote possibility, I’m sure some in the third world will be well aware of it though and will have protection in place to try to stop it happeningAs any leader of a country will know, the quickest way to have your head removed from your shoulders is to have your population hungry…..
Just look at the CF shutdown, oh Jesus were going to run out of co2, not a mention of the farmers can't get any bloody fertiliser. People are yet to see the bigger picture here!The BBC aren’t reporting this in the same fashion as the poxy fuel shortages. Doesn’t suit the we don’t need farmers narrative.
I’ve already sold some in the £180s. Will likely do a couple more loads once drilled up.Nov22 closed at £189.50 today, would it be worth 1 ton/acre sell to cover N cost?
They probably ain’t aware of the possibilities, no shops or supermarkets have run out of food yet, nor will they in the near future. Maybe a few empty shelves here and there but nothing overly dramatic, there was no cooking oil in local Morrisons the other night but not a problem as there was plenty in Aldi.The BBC aren’t reporting this in the same fashion as the poxy fuel shortages. Doesn’t suit the we don’t need farmers narrative.