Real Margins

Overby · Nov 12, 2021

I'm not an arable man but am interested in the current situation.

I was with 2 pals the other day, one of whom was delighted at the price he was getting for his wheat, the other, whilst glad the price is up, reckons due to the huge rises in inputs everyone is kidding themselves and margins are actually currently squeezed.

What's the general htoughts?

teslacoils · Nov 12, 2021

Next year's margin could be anything. Too many unknowns to speculate.

7610 super q · Nov 12, 2021

Yeah. wheat/ barley in the £200-250 range OK. If it drops back to £100....

The main thing is the weather. Folks seem to have forgotten 2020 already. Spring drought followed by monsoon harvest = 2 ton/ acre ( Probably less ) here.

teslacoils · Nov 12, 2021

Cost of growing wheat, if you got your fert somewhere in the middle, around £50/AC dearer than last year. Ah chem up a little bit. Diesel up.

Harvest wheat at £200/t and a normal crop, then I'd say margins are up on normal. Last harvest margins were really good.

Oldmacdonald · Nov 12, 2021

OhAye said:
I'm not an arable man but am interested in the current situation.

I was with 2 pals the other day, one of whom was delighted at the price he was getting for his wheat, the other, whilst glad the price is up, reckons due to the huge rises in inputs everyone is kidding themselves and margins are actually currently squeezed.

What's the general htoughts?

One of your pals is an optimist, and one of your pals is a pessimist.

D14 · Nov 14, 2021

OhAye said:
I'm not an arable man but am interested in the current situation.

I was with 2 pals the other day, one of whom was delighted at the price he was getting for his wheat, the other, whilst glad the price is up, reckons due to the huge rises in inputs everyone is kidding themselves and margins are actually currently squeezed.

What's the general htoughts?

Currently selling wheat at £270/tonne and managed to buy next years Nitrogen at £230/t so assuming normal yields we will be doing well over 2 years of accounts. However in 2023 if input prices remain where they are we will be loosing money without a doubt.

Overby · Nov 14, 2021

D14 said:
Currently selling wheat at £270/tonne and managed to buy next years Nitrogen at £230/t so assuming normal yields we will be doing well over 2 years of accounts. However in 2023 if input prices remain where they are we will be loosing money without a doubt.

Thanks for the honest and sensible reply

Adeptandy · Nov 14, 2021

Wheat & Barley prices may be good now, but early selling & break crops for some of us will kill any chance of a profit this year

4course · Nov 14, 2021

Adeptandy said:
Wheat & Barley prices may be good now, but early selling & break crops for some of us will kill any chance of a profit this year

by this year do you mean 21 or 22 harvest ?

Wombat · Nov 14, 2021

Yields this year were a bit down on normal as a dry spring and wet july knocked a bit off but better than 2020 with all spring cropping, prices are good higher than for a while and fert was £230 for this year but £450 for next year so i would say up a tad on normal

Adeptandy · Nov 14, 2021

4course said:
by this year do you mean 21 or 22 harvest ?

21 harvest

whitefox · Nov 14, 2021

Oldmacdonald said:
One of your pals is an optimist, and one of your pals is a pessimist.

a pessimist is just a more "experienced" optimist

Case290 · Nov 14, 2021

Made that X9 look cheep
Real margin (joke)
Not here

goodevans · Nov 14, 2021

Oldmacdonald said:
One of your pals is an optimist, and one of your pals is a pessimist.

Sat in a pub and the one had finished his pint and the other one hadn't started

Secret Agronomist · Nov 14, 2021

Adeptandy said:
Wheat & Barley prices may be good now, but early selling & break crops for some of us will kill any chance of a profit this year

Yep, my wheat this year will be just on 200 average! Will I manage that next year? Fert bought early so should be ok. The root crops are what worries me, carrots and potatoes have contract prices that are in no way aligned with agricultural inflation, also heavy users of fuel. At least I don't have to worry about landlords wanting higher rents.

Real Margins

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