Strain B1.1.529

Goweresque

Member
Location
North Wilts
Interesting but haven't all the variants of concern appeared either prior to vaccines being available or apparently from regions with extremely low vaccine availability/take up?

Evolution doesn't create the variants, it just selects the ones that get thrown up by random chance that are best adapted to the new environment. The vaccines have changed the environment, so evolution picks the variants best suited to the new normal. A variant with extra ability to evade the vaccines that arises in a low vaccinated country may not be overly successful there, but if it escapes to a high vaccinated one it can rapidly become the dominant strain.

Thats the problem, the viruses are incredibly fast moving and our defences are relatively slow. We are still jabbing people with a vaccine based on the original Wuhan strain of covid, we've already had 4 different significant strains since this whole thing started less that 2 years ago. And the last of those, Delta, has obvious ability to evade the vaccines, hence why cases are still high in highly vaccinated countries. We now face another version potentially even more infectious and better able to evade vaccines. By the time a booster based on the O variant is developed, produced and jabbed in arms to any significant degree the virus will have moved on and we'll be facing the same scenario all over again, with the Omega variant by then no doubt.

There literally is no end to this process. The virus is now endemic, like the flu virus, it will never be eliminated, thats physically impossible as it has significant infection reserves in various animals. You cannot vaccinate your way out of a coronavirus epidemic, everyone will have to get it multiple times in their life, and just like flu, it may very well kill them eventually. The best solution is not to try to prevent people getting it, its to work on cures to keep them alive once they do get it. That is the way out, not a never ending vaccination process and some sort of Twilight Zone of eternal lockdowns and other social controls.
 

Charlie Gill

Member
Location
Kent
Evolution doesn't create the variants, it just selects the ones that get thrown up by random chance that are best adapted to the new environment. The vaccines have changed the environment, so evolution picks the variants best suited to the new normal. A variant with extra ability to evade the vaccines that arises in a low vaccinated country may not be overly successful there, but if it escapes to a high vaccinated one it can rapidly become the dominant strain.

Thats the problem, the viruses are incredibly fast moving and our defences are relatively slow. We are still jabbing people with a vaccine based on the original Wuhan strain of covid, we've already had 4 different significant strains since this whole thing started less that 2 years ago. And the last of those, Delta, has obvious ability to evade the vaccines, hence why cases are still high in highly vaccinated countries. We now face another version potentially even more infectious and better able to evade vaccines. By the time a booster based on the O variant is developed, produced and jabbed in arms to any significant degree the virus will have moved on and we'll be facing the same scenario all over again, with the Omega variant by then no doubt.

There literally is no end to this process. The virus is now endemic, like the flu virus, it will never be eliminated, thats physically impossible as it has significant infection reserves in various animals. You cannot vaccinate your way out of a coronavirus epidemic, everyone will have to get it multiple times in their life, and just like flu, it may very well kill them eventually. The best solution is not to try to prevent people getting it, its to work on cures to keep them alive once they do get it. That is the way out, not a never ending vaccination process and some sort of Twilight Zone of eternal lockdowns and other social controls.
We can only work with what we've got.

Your solution is exactly what we are doing now. Maybe more emphasis on vaccine equity is needed?
 

The Agrarian

Member
Mixed Farmer
Location
Northern Ireland
Evolution doesn't create the variants, it just selects the ones that get thrown up by random chance that are best adapted to the new environment. The vaccines have changed the environment, so evolution picks the variants best suited to the new normal. A variant with extra ability to evade the vaccines that arises in a low vaccinated country may not be overly successful there, but if it escapes to a high vaccinated one it can rapidly become the dominant strain.

Thats the problem, the viruses are incredibly fast moving and our defences are relatively slow. We are still jabbing people with a vaccine based on the original Wuhan strain of covid, we've already had 4 different significant strains since this whole thing started less that 2 years ago. And the last of those, Delta, has obvious ability to evade the vaccines, hence why cases are still high in highly vaccinated countries. We now face another version potentially even more infectious and better able to evade vaccines. By the time a booster based on the O variant is developed, produced and jabbed in arms to any significant degree the virus will have moved on and we'll be facing the same scenario all over again, with the Omega variant by then no doubt.

There literally is no end to this process. The virus is now endemic, like the flu virus, it will never be eliminated, thats physically impossible as it has significant infection reserves in various animals. You cannot vaccinate your way out of a coronavirus epidemic, everyone will have to get it multiple times in their life, and just like flu, it may very well kill them eventually. The best solution is not to try to prevent people getting it, its to work on cures to keep them alive once they do get it. That is the way out, not a never ending vaccination process and some sort of Twilight Zone of eternal lockdowns and other social controls.

I can partly agree with that. But I do think that, while you cannot vaccinate your way out of a covid pandemic, you certainly can vaccinate your way through it until such times as there is enough general background immunity in the population, the health service has adjusted to whatever it needs to do to cope with the new problems, and when treatments have made sufficient ground.

I was just passing the remark to missus Ag this afternoon that the landscape of immunity is now well and truly established, with the best equipped people currently being those who have been double jabbed to Wuhan, and recently tested positive for delta, but without suffering lasting lung damage that would make them susceptible to new infection. Assuming that Omicron is a derivative of Delta, those people are in a favourable age profile are in decent shape for the new variant. We aren't all in the same (immunity) place at the same time, and it's just as well for the sake of the health system. But that's how nature intended it.
 

Goweresque

Member
Location
North Wilts
Your solution is exactly what we are doing now. Maybe more emphasis on vaccine equity is needed?

No its not what we are doing now. The idea of vaccinating young people and children is totally contra to what needs to be done, even if you ignore the ethical issues with giving young people a vaccine that is more dangerous to them than having the illness itself. Vaccinating everyone creates an environment where everyone's immune response is the same. This is incredibly dangerous, as it makes everyone vulnerable should a very virulent variant come along that is specifically targeted at avoiding the spike protein antibodies.

In nature, with viruses like the flu, the population does not all have identical immune responses, because they all catch different variants at different times. So there is a layered immune response within the population as a whole. A flu variant might be very good at targeting people with a certain immune response, but it won't go through the entire country as there are loads of different immune responses out there, which are better at coping with it. It does a number on the vulnerable ones but the rest survive fine. This is why we have 'bad' flu years - that years variant has evolved to target a new section of society that was previous immune, often an older cohort who then die in significant numbers from it.

We are now creating a highly vulnerable society, all our eggs are in one immunity basket in effect. Thats why vaccination should have been for the elderly and the immune compromised only, their need for protection in the short term is greater than the needs of society as a whole to have a varied immune response. Everyone else should have been left to get covid naturally over time and create the layered immunity we have to flu. We should certainly stop vaccinating children. That is insanity.

But of course this is politically impossible, because if you vaccinate the over 60s (say) plus those under 60 who are immune compromised, and someone who didn't get the vaccine dies then all hell breaks loose. We do not have a process anymore that says 'You know what, you will have to take a risk for the good of the collective as whole in the long term'. Even if the number of deaths in the future could be massively higher as a result, those deaths are theoretical, while any happening now are very much real, and are politically unacceptable. Which brings me back to the political event horizon - its far too short, and cannot make decisions that are painful in the short term, but the right one in the long term. It can only deal with the here and now.
 

Goweresque

Member
Location
North Wilts
you certainly can vaccinate your way through it until such times as there is enough general background immunity in the population

Thats the crucial point that hasn't been really answered yet. Does immunity that you get from having covid after vaccination equal (or exceed) immunity from having covid when unvaccinated? What evidence we have so far suggests that post vaccination infections do not create a long and lasting immunity in the way an unvaccinated infection does. People who catch covid after vaccination do not seem to gain a significant amount of nucleocapsid antibody response, which is one of the two main immune responses the body has to viral infections, the other being to the spike protein of course.

Its entirely possible that we have created vast swathes of the global population with a hobbled immune response to covid that can never be improved. If that is the case there never will be enough background immunity to suppress new waves of the virus. We will get seriously hammered every time one emerges, not only in the sick and elderly but at all ages and health conditions.

We will eventually discover all this of course. As the years go by it will become apparent if vaccinated people catch new variants more easily than the unvaccinated, if the same people catch it time after time after time while others never catch it all. The whole vaccination program is a mass experiment, and we are the lab rats.
 

Charlie Gill

Member
Location
Kent
No its not what we are doing now. The idea of vaccinating young people and children is totally contra to what needs to be done, even if you ignore the ethical issues with giving young people a vaccine that is more dangerous to them than having the illness itself. Vaccinating everyone creates an environment where everyone's immune response is the same. This is incredibly dangerous, as it makes everyone vulnerable should a very virulent variant come along that is specifically targeted at avoiding the spike protein antibodies.

In nature, with viruses like the flu, the population does not all have identical immune responses, because they all catch different variants at different times. So there is a layered immune response within the population as a whole. A flu variant might be very good at targeting people with a certain immune response, but it won't go through the entire country as there are loads of different immune responses out there, which are better at coping with it. It does a number on the vulnerable ones but the rest survive fine. This is why we have 'bad' flu years - that years variant has evolved to target a new section of society that was previous immune, often an older cohort who then die in significant numbers from it.

We are now creating a highly vulnerable society, all our eggs are in one immunity basket in effect. Thats why vaccination should have been for the elderly and the immune compromised only, their need for protection in the short term is greater than the needs of society as a whole to have a varied immune response. Everyone else should have been left to get covid naturally over time and create the layered immunity we have to flu. We should certainly stop vaccinating children. That is insanity.

But of course this is politically impossible, because if you vaccinate the over 60s (say) plus those under 60 who are immune compromised, and someone who didn't get the vaccine dies then all hell breaks loose. We do not have a process anymore that says 'You know what, you will have to take a risk for the good of the collective as whole in the long term'. Even if the number of deaths in the future could be massively higher as a result, those deaths are theoretical, while any happening now are very much real, and are politically unacceptable. Which brings me back to the political event horizon - its far too short, and cannot make decisions that are painful in the short term, but the right one in the long term. It can only deal with the here and now.
I'll agree on the kids but for the reason those jabs could be better used elsewhere. The rest doesn't make sense, vaccinated or not we are still going to catch it and have to deal with it.
 
I was just passing the remark to missus Ag this afternoon that the landscape of immunity is now well and truly established


As far as I understand there is no such thing as "Immunity" - vaccines make the immune system able to respond quicker and more effectively (We hope).

People still get ill and older people will still feel ill - just less will end up in hospital.

Perhaps inevitable now that the most dangerous form of Covid will one day appear - simply down to the fact of the Billions of hosts available to the virus all over the world.

HMG certainly won't be on the ball to stop it, it'll just be let in - lessons learnt.
 

Charlie Gill

Member
Location
Kent
Evolution doesn't create the variants, it just selects the ones that get thrown up by random chance that are best adapted to the new environment. The vaccines have changed the environment, so evolution picks the variants best suited to the new normal. A variant with extra ability to evade the vaccines that arises in a low vaccinated country may not be overly successful there, but if it escapes to a high vaccinated one it can rapidly become the dominant strain.

Thats the problem, the viruses are incredibly fast moving and our defences are relatively slow. We are still jabbing people with a vaccine based on the original Wuhan strain of covid, we've already had 4 different significant strains since this whole thing started less that 2 years ago. And the last of those, Delta, has obvious ability to evade the vaccines, hence why cases are still high in highly vaccinated countries. We now face another version potentially even more infectious and better able to evade vaccines. By the time a booster based on the O variant is developed, produced and jabbed in arms to any significant degree the virus will have moved on and we'll be facing the same scenario all over again, with the Omega variant by then no doubt.

There literally is no end to this process. The virus is now endemic, like the flu virus, it will never be eliminated, thats physically impossible as it has significant infection reserves in various animals. You cannot vaccinate your way out of a coronavirus epidemic, everyone will have to get it multiple times in their life, and just like flu, it may very well kill them eventually. The best solution is not to try to prevent people getting it, its to work on cures to keep them alive once they do get it. That is the way out, not a never ending vaccination process and some sort of Twilight Zone of eternal lockdowns and other social controls.
This just popped up and I thought you might find it of interest:

 

Goweresque

Member
Location
North Wilts
This just popped up and I thought you might find it of interest:


Thats what you would expect to see, step changes. Most mutations in the virus are small and provide no advantage to it, so all the strains just bumble along in tandem with each other, no one becoming more prevalent. But occasionally random mutation throws up a genuine contender, one with significant changes to its overall makeup that give it a evolutionary advantage (such as being able to evade previous immunity, or being much more infectious) That strain will rapidly become the dominant one, for a while, until the process repeats itself. Its what happens with the flu, which is why we have a different flu vaccine every year, the medical boffins try to predict how the flu will mutate next, and which new strain will be dominant, and use those as the basis for the annual flu jab. Sometime they get it right, and it helps, sometimes they get it wrong and an unheralded strain takes over and we have a serious flu epidemic.

Its interesting that such advantageous mutations seem to be be more likely to happen in patients with compromised immune systems, such as AIDS. Having a compromised immune system allows the virus to live in the body for a significant amount of time (months maybe) and thus the body becomes a viral test bed - as it reproduces any mutations that have changes that allow them to evade the body's immune system are preferentially favoured. This may be why new covid variants tend to arise in poorer countries, they have more AIDS cases (South Africa certainly has a lot) and more undernourished people who may have compromised immune systems.
 

Easedoff

Member
Livestock Farmer
South African health guy, just interviewed by Tom Swarbrick on LBC Radio, saying this variant is nabbing the young and unvaccinated in RSA.
At the moment it doesn't seem to be causing serious illness requiring hospitalisation, reported from another RSA medic.
 
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The Agrarian

Member
Mixed Farmer
Location
Northern Ireland
Reuters says 13 cases in Holland.

Interestingly, an NY Times reporter who was on one of the two flights to Schiphol, said that they were all couped up together for 30 hours while being processed. Then the 61 were quarantined, and the other 540 were released to the four winds.
 
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Gong Farmer

Member
BASIS
Location
S E Glos

Charlie Gill

Member
Location
Kent
That's not news
jack-nicholson-dans-the-shining.jpg


 

Bootneck

Member
Location
East Sussex
My cousin was flying in from Angola where he lives /works to see his dying grandmother. Was waiting for his flight transfer in dubai airport when Angola was placed on the quarantine list, now he will not be able to see his family for Christmas or his grandmother in her last days (refuses on principle to stay in a quarantine detention facility when he is healthy, vaccinated, tested, and she will be gone before he gets out anyway) And he says there is hardly any covid at all in Angola, no one talks about it, no one worries, its not a thing.
 

Bootneck

Member
Location
East Sussex
If vaccines are so bad why do we use them on farm animals?
Well, they are animals not humans, and we treat animals and humans slightly differently. and we don't use vaccines on animals that have not had the full range of tests. I myself have had all the usual childhood vaccines and also typhus, hep a, hep b, rabies, anthrax, yellow fever, so far more than most UK citizens have had. All fully tested, including long term health effects.so I am in no way an anti vaccine person. But I have not, and will not have, the covid vaccines until full phase 3 trials are finished and long term effects known. I've had covid, i was OK, I have antibodies, why do I need an experimental vaccine?
 

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Red Tractor drops launch of green farming scheme amid anger from farmers

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As reported in Independent


quote: “Red Tractor has confirmed it is dropping plans to launch its green farming assurance standard in April“

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