The Son
Member
- Location
- Herefordshire
Offered CF 34.5%N £649 this morning delivery Feb, I have to commit by tonight apparently.
so the price is going down or your merchant committed at higher and wants to pass the loss to youOffered CF 34.5%N £649 this morning delivery Feb, I have to commit by tonight apparently.
Well I’m sat here having just taken my aunt to drop off some clothes to my uncle in hospital and 12 months ago I took the same road taking them for their 1st jabs and it’s like driving through heaven compared to last years hell looking at the roadside crops, hedge to hedge good looking crops, not half fields, missing patch’s or lakes or the headlands where there’s only odd bits of green after they had been puddled in, potential is clearly there.My cropping decision is made with half an eye on the prices in may / June. First priority is cover rent, then look at likely profit and risk. If I can make the same money with less risk and less investment, I'll do that. I expect a 20 percent return on cash invested in growing crop.
Exciting is not a word I would use. We are all playing roulette with our livelihoods. The bigger the bubble gets the more unstable it becomes. How much money we make is more down to chance than ever before. The markets will eventually crash when decides your fate.In effect what were experiencing with the fertiliser price is what happens when demand outstrips supply by a large amount.
The next few years are going to be exciting with the knock on effects to crop yields.
There won't be any loss for the merchant as they won't have taken a position. CF business all back-to-back.so the price is going down or your merchant committed at higher and wants to pass the loss to you
disagree, no one can survive without food. The only way food keeps cheap, is because we are stupid enough to keep pumping it out, as we are encouraged to, and accepting a lower price, by raising our yields, the best way we can, that's usually more fert.Exciting is not a word I would use. We are all playing roulette with our livelihoods. The bigger the bubble gets the more unstable it becomes. How much money we make is more down to chance than ever before. The markets will eventually crash when decides your fate.
I didn't say overnight, (imo it wont have a big impact on early 2022 spring prices)but some of the debate has been about new season prices of £500+ ...which is rubbish based on current prices. Also Gas prices reduce in the summer due to much lower demand. We were told in the past that Gas represents 70% of the production cost of AN and that Fert Producers do not buy gas forward.If 40% supply of something stops (European fertiliser supply) then prices increase significantly, just because the cost of production reduces, it doesn't mean that supply just magically appears overnight to reduce the sales price.
I dont agree, imo fert price is high due to cost of GAS, the fert producers have taken a view on production capacity due to the unprecedented situation and opened/shut factories based on what they can actually sell. The impact on crops yields you are correct.In effect what were experiencing with the fertiliser price is what happens when demand outstrips supply by a large amount.
The next few years are going to be exciting with the knock on effects to crop yields.
I don't see new season prices over £500. £300 maybe, but not £500.I didn't say overnight, (imo it wont have a big impact on early 2022 spring prices)but some of the debate has been about new season prices of £500+ ...which is rubbish based on current prices. Also Gas prices reduce in the summer due to much lower demand. We were told in the past that Gas represents 70% of the production cost of AN and that Fert Producers do not buy gas forward.
They cant have it both ways, if they had bought gas on forward contracts fert prices would currently be at 2019/2020 levels and all factories would be open. If they buy at spot prices the recent high AN prices will plummet very quickly as the new lower gas prices roll into the production lines !!!
so my store cattle price is going to increase?disagree, no one can survive without food. The only way food keeps cheap, is because we are stupid enough to keep pumping it out, as we are encouraged to, and accepting a lower price, by raising our yields, the best way we can, that's usually more fert.
If we cannot, or wont, buy and use fert, because it is uneconomic to do so, there is a choice, price of grain/meat/milk, goes up to cover the price, or, less is used, which decreases supply.
Globally, food supply/demand, is very finely balanced, any decrease in supply, means shortages, to stop those shortages, price will have to rise, to tempt us to increase supply, and that is by paying more. As fert price is a global commodity, the same argument applies to virtually all countries, across the globe, so they cannot import cheap food.
And, unless there is a huge reverse of 'climate change' policies/commitments, demand, will be greater than supply, for a long time. And that, for us, is good news.
Decreased use of fert, is also good news for the climate change zealots,, ............... until they go to buy their food.
If its just over 300 then those who usually by at the begining of the market will have to get a move on when the market opensI don't see new season prices over £500. £300 maybe, but not £500.
why?If its just over 300 then those who usually by at the begining of the market will have to get a move on when the market opens
I don't see new season prices over £500. £300 maybe, but not £500.
Blimey, did I just talk the price downI don't see new season prices over £500. £300 maybe, but not £500.
depends on how good they are.so my store cattle price is going to increase?