Milk price - for budgeting

Bramble · Jan 18, 2022

Whats the rollercoaster going to be doing for the next 12 months??? For a ‘standard’ litre liquid contract, by March my price will be up 40% in 12 months

Will spot prices/GDT keep going up? Will supply tighten further, or is everyone going to open the floodgates at the prospect of 40ppl and we will all be heading back to 25ppl in 12 months time???

….also tonight’s lottery numbers would be useful

Bald Rick · Jan 18, 2022

Personally I don’t see much appetite for expanding or ramping up output at the moment. Everything is ratcheting up.

I also prefer to budget on a lower price but then I’m a pessimist

Cows 'n grass · Jan 20, 2022

We've just done our budget for next year and used Arla's January milk price. Rather scarily it puts us on 55ppl+ through next October to December.

We produce the bulk of our milk through the first half of the year so it's slightly easier budgeting milk/feed/fert price because most inputs are bought and I think a price crash before late summer is unlikely.

Jdunn55 · Jan 20, 2022

Cows 'n grass said:
We've just done our budget for next year and used Arla's January milk price. Rather scarily it puts us on 55ppl+ through next October to December.

We produce the bulk of our milk through the first half of the year so it's slightly easier budgeting milk/feed/fert price because most inputs are bought and I think a price crash before late summer is unlikely.

My prediction is that the earliest the price will go down is when the spring flush comes through in 2023, summer and winter milk is always wanted and supply is going to be short this summer I reckon and probably winter coming because of lack of fertiliser brought and therefore lower cereal yields leading to less feeding over the winter

Personally I'm running with 35ppl for 4%bf and 3.3% protein

frederick · Jan 20, 2022

Jdunn55 said:
My prediction is that the earliest the price will go down is when the spring flush comes through in 2023, summer and winter milk is always wanted and supply is going to be short this summer I reckon and probably winter coming because of lack of fertiliser brought and therefore lower cereal yields leading to less feeding over the winter

Personally I'm running with 35ppl for 4%bf and 3.3% protein

Milk price can go down anytime China pauses buying. It now quite often goes down in autumn just as New Zealand comes on stream.
It is a mistake to think the UK seasonal supply any longer has much influence on when prices move.

More to life · Jan 20, 2022

frederick said:
Milk price can go down anytime China pauses buying. It now quite often goes down in autumn just as New Zealand comes on stream.
It is a mistake to think the UK seasonal supply any longer has much influence on when prices move.

In what circumstance would they stop buying dairy products tho. There's a lot of them to feed.

Jdunn55 · Jan 20, 2022

frederick said:
Milk price can go down anytime China pauses buying. It now quite often goes down in autumn just as New Zealand comes on stream.
It is a mistake to think the UK seasonal supply any longer has much influence on when prices move.

Does China import much from us though? My understanding is they're ramping up imports of dairy though not slowing down?

frederick · Jan 20, 2022

Jdunn55 said:
Does China import much from us though? My understanding is they're ramping up imports of dairy though not slowing down?

Yes but nobody is ever really certain of what stock they actually hold.
Just because we don't actually sell them much wouldn't make any difference if world price fell.

Manney · Nov 25, 2022

Just re-igniting this thread.

What price are people using Jan 23 - Dec 23 budget?

2021 we averaged 34ppl and this year we are on target to be just under 50ppl.

We've seen big milk price increases with input prices rising to match but will the dust settle in 2023 or are we still on the roller-coaster!?

easy farming · Nov 25, 2022

Manney said:
Just re-igniting this thread.

What price are people using Jan 23 - Dec 23 budget?

2021 we averaged 34ppl and this year we are on target to be just under 50ppl.

We've seen big milk price increases with input prices rising to match but will the dust settle in 2023 or are we still on the roller-coaster!?

I was planning 3 ppl off October price.
After Arla's latest missive might increase the cut for later in year re-cashflow.

Beef farmer · Nov 25, 2022

Manney said:
Just re-igniting this thread.

What price are people using Jan 23 - Dec 23 budget?

2021 we averaged 34ppl and this year we are on target to be just under 50ppl.

We've seen big milk price increases with input prices rising to match but will the dust settle in 2023 or are we still on the roller-coaster!?

We've done ours and il send you what we've done,
But we took money off the milk and kept inputs the same, I can't think milk price will drop too much, or else it will be a case of "where's the milk" fairly quickly

Bald Rick · Nov 25, 2022

Doing our budgets on 43ppl B&W standard litre averaged over Jan-Dec 2023

Feed might ease, Energy might rise
Weather? Who knows

Beef farmer · Nov 25, 2022

Bald Rick said:
Doing our budgets on 43ppl B&W standard litre averaged over Jan-Dec 2023

Feed might ease, Energy might rise
Weather? Who knows

With 240 ton of fert in store, I hope milk doesn't ease too much. Ffs could have serious egg on face when we spread it in april/aug

Bald Rick · Nov 25, 2022

Beef farmer said:
With 240 ton of fert in store, I hope milk doesn't ease too much. Ffs could have serious egg on face when we spread it in april/aug

All we have is millions of litres of slurry… and tbh I’ve not noticed a great deal of yield difference (yet) but I suspect that modern ryegrasses need a diet of AN from the bag

Think it will be mix & match with quite a lot of foliar feed used after 1st cut

Martyn · Nov 25, 2022

Organic iv put 45ppl across 12 months, iv fixed a lot our costs for the next couple of years, and already purchased seed & P&K for next year, weather is now the biggest unknown 🫣

Martyn · Nov 25, 2022

Organic iv put 45ppl for milk £4.80kg/beef across 12 months, iv fixed a lot our costs for the next couple of years, and already purchased seed & P&K for next year, weather is now the biggest unknown 🫣

Beef farmer · Nov 25, 2022

Bald Rick said:
All we have is millions of litres of slurry… and tbh I’ve not noticed a great deal of yield difference (yet) but I suspect that modern ryegrasses need a diet of AN from the bag

Think it will be mix & match with quite a lot of foliar feed used after 1st cut

Just used slurry last year?

Bald Rick · Nov 25, 2022

Beef farmer said:
Just used slurry last year?

No as we had carry over and bought 3 artic loads but used slurry and foliar N c/w trace elements from 3rd cut on and for winter rye.
Becoming a fan of foliar feeding

TheRanger · Nov 25, 2022

Jdunn55 said:
My prediction is that the earliest the price will go down is when the spring flush comes through in 2023, summer and winter milk is always wanted and supply is going to be short this summer I reckon and probably winter coming because of lack of fertiliser brought and therefore lower cereal yields leading to less feeding over the winter

Personally I'm running with 35ppl for 4%bf and 3.3% protein

Budgeting 35ppl here average price for whole of 23/24. Shouldn't be any worse than that, hopefully be higher.

Beef farmer · Nov 25, 2022

TheRanger said:
Budgeting 35ppl here average price for whole of 23/24. Shouldn't be any worse than that, hopefully be higher.

Is the cash surplus at the end of your budget okay?

Milk price - for budgeting

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