The Perfect Storm

ski

Member
A new book by Sebastian Hunger, 'The Perfect Storm', he has a wonderful description of how big boats go to the bottom, a crisis starts slowly and grows gradually but at a certain point becomes exponential. Can we map this description below on to modern agriculture since sometime in 80's or 90's. Now of course you can object and say what on earth do boats and agriculture have in common, and that's the question really, and if there are correlatives then what actions do we need to take?

The more trouble she’s in, the more trouble she’s likely to get in, and the less capable she is of getting out of it, which is an acceleration of catastrophe that is almost impossible to reverse... If there’s enough damage, flooding may overwhelm the pumps and short out the engine or gag its air intakes. With the engine gone, the boat has no steerageway at all and turns broadside to the seas. Broadsides exposes her to the full force of the breaking waves, and eventually a part of her deck or wheelhouse lets go. After that, downflooding starts to occur. Downflooding is the catastrophic influx of ocean water into the hold. It’s a sort of death rattle at sea, the nearly vertical last leg of an exponential curve.

Probably no comparisons of course are accurate but perhaps there is some truth in these types of analogies, which surely must merit our consideration.
 

le bon paysan

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
Limousin, France
A new book by Sebastian Hunger, 'The Perfect Storm', he has a wonderful description of how big boats go to the bottom, a crisis starts slowly and grows gradually but at a certain point becomes exponential. Can we map this description below on to modern agriculture since sometime in 80's or 90's. Now of course you can object and say what on earth do boats and agriculture have in common, and that's the question really, and if there are correlatives then what actions do we need to take?

The more trouble she’s in, the more trouble she’s likely to get in, and the less capable she is of getting out of it, which is an acceleration of catastrophe that is almost impossible to reverse... If there’s enough damage, flooding may overwhelm the pumps and short out the engine or gag its air intakes. With the engine gone, the boat has no steerageway at all and turns broadside to the seas. Broadsides exposes her to the full force of the breaking waves, and eventually a part of her deck or wheelhouse lets go. After that, downflooding starts to occur. Downflooding is the catastrophic influx of ocean water into the hold. It’s a sort of death rattle at sea, the nearly vertical last leg of an exponential curve.

Probably no comparisons of course are accurate but perhaps there is some truth in these types of analogies, which surely must merit our consideration.
Sebastian Junger
Got TPS and WAR, very salient at the moment.
 

Jackov Altraids

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
Devon
I think that it is very relevant to agriculture and particularly for food production. The shorter supplies get, the challenge is not to consume the seeds/ replacements which you need to increase production.
I fear it also applies to climate change and biodiversity.
 

Yale

Member
Livestock Farmer
At the moment it seems UK ag is rudderless.

I‘ve got to a point where I can’t see the sustainability in modern equipment with shocking electronic reliability.Then there’s the exponentially expanding cost of all this stuff.

It makes me feel like going back 50 years,skeleton stocking rates and much reduced output with vastly less costs.

I think the term for this is regenerative agriculture.

There must be a lot out there who feel like this!
 

Werzle

Member
Location
Midlands
More and more people think the s.hit is going to hit the fan at some point. Hearing more and more stories of bad news within uk ag with farmers selling up , folks missing finance payments, staff shortages, cant afford fert ,cant afford to comply with the new slurry rules etc. Farms who are reliant on labour, fuel, finance and massive inputs are going to be hit hard.
 

capfits

Member
More and more people think the s.hit is going to hit the fan at some point. Hearing more and more stories of bad news within uk ag with farmers selling up , folks missing finance payments, staff shortages, cant afford fert ,cant afford to comply with the new slurry rules etc. Farms who are reliant on labour, fuel, finance and massive inputs are going to be hit hard.
All of us then.
Only ones I hearing is labour shortage.Maybe different in different areas.
 
A new book by Sebastian Hunger, 'The Perfect Storm', he has a wonderful description of how big boats go to the bottom, a crisis starts slowly and grows gradually but at a certain point becomes exponential. Can we map this description below on to modern agriculture since sometime in 80's or 90's. Now of course you can object and say what on earth do boats and agriculture have in common, and that's the question really, and if there are correlatives then what actions do we need to take?

The more trouble she’s in, the more trouble she’s likely to get in, and the less capable she is of getting out of it, which is an acceleration of catastrophe that is almost impossible to reverse... If there’s enough damage, flooding may overwhelm the pumps and short out the engine or gag its air intakes. With the engine gone, the boat has no steerageway at all and turns broadside to the seas. Broadsides exposes her to the full force of the breaking waves, and eventually a part of her deck or wheelhouse lets go. After that, downflooding starts to occur. Downflooding is the catastrophic influx of ocean water into the hold. It’s a sort of death rattle at sea, the nearly vertical last leg of an exponential curve.

Probably no comparisons of course are accurate but perhaps there is some truth in these types of analogies, which surely must merit our consideration.

Too complicated for me.

Does he mean we are fecked.

Yes I think so.

Selling land for development seems the base of agriculture UK.
 

Jackov Altraids

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
Devon
Too complicated for me.

Does he mean we are fecked.

Yes I think so.

Selling land for development seems the base of agriculture UK.

It's not complicated, it's just about identifying tipping points in any system/ circumstance and understanding that as long as you hover around the pivot point, everything is very simple.
Once it starts to tip, all forces begin to act together to increase the rate of change exponentially which leads to an unstoppable and often catastrophic outcome.
 
At the moment it seems UK ag is rudderless.

I‘ve got to a point where I can’t see the sustainability in modern equipment with shocking electronic reliability.Then there’s the exponentially expanding cost of all this stuff.

It makes me feel like going back 50 years,skeleton stocking rates and much reduced output with vastly less costs.

I think the term for this is regenerative agriculture.

There must be a lot out there who feel like this!
Yet if you listen to government ministers they seem to think investing in tech is the future, encouraging and pushing us that way, from electronic ID for stock to things like vary rate fert spreaders, offering grants to get us on the treadmill.
Having watched a vary rate fert spreader at work,I’ve got to say they seem wonderful things. I’m sure over enough years, probably 20+ here I’m sure it would be worthwhile But there probably isn’t a worse combination than fert and electrics , the probability of such a machine getting close to that age without major problems is practically nil. It may make perfect sense for the bigger farms , many that will put more fert through one in a single year, a month even, than I will in a decade or more, but for smaller farms the savings will never stack up.
 

Ffermer Bach

Member
Livestock Farmer
@spin cycle ,Why do you perceive globalisation a disaster?
there seem many advantages, however, along with improved communication there seems to be a power shift away from individuals towards both multi national companies and a coterie of very rich individuals who have power above that wielded by elected politicians.
 
Yet if you listen to government ministers they seem to think investing in tech is the future, encouraging and pushing us that way, from electronic ID for stock to things like vary rate fert spreaders, offering grants to get us on the treadmill.
Having watched a vary rate fert spreader at work,I’ve got to say they seem wonderful things. I’m sure over enough years, probably 20+ here I’m sure it would be worthwhile But there probably isn’t a worse combination than fert and electrics , the probability of such a machine getting close to that age without major problems is practically nil. It may make perfect sense for the bigger farms , many that will put more fert through one in a single year, a month even, than I will in a decade or more, but for smaller farms the savings will never stack up.
Contractor with a 2 year old varispreader managed to put in exactly the right information and something malfunctioned and the 5 acre field got 1800 kg instead of 750, a lot of it on the one run because it went full open and wouldn't shut again. To be fair I was allowed a ton of fertiliser, he was going to try and get it back from the dealer. Never liked to ask how he got on though. Bit if thats at 2 year old, what will it be like at 15?
 

ski

Member
@spin cycle ,Why do you perceive globalisation a disaster?
Globalisation is not good for farming, ( and most small businesses) as it drains power away from small producers and concentrates it with large organisations. What negotiating power do you really have when selling grain or buying fertiliser compared to your supplier? Very Little. The same is true with equipment and national regulation, we are passive recipients and any idea that we are not is wishful thinking. It encourages by its ethos and through its promoters to make you think in the abstract or 'bigger picture' yet we can not live satisfactorily in this way, we live in the particular, our life is particular to each of us and we can't flourish living with an abstracted mind set.
 

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