Clarkson on the nail again?

Ffermer Bach

Member
Livestock Farmer
We are definitely better placed than most and you have summed things up well.

The current circumstances are such that for many, reducing production is the right business decision.

Every week that passes, more breeding stock are being culled, land left fallow and less fertiliser is being spread.

It is pretty critical to stop the probable decline pretty bloody quickly.
what is best for the individual, is not always what is best for society, and that is where government has a role, in making things best for the individual. I will give a fictitious example, I farm in the hills above a large conurbation. It is in my interests to drain my fields and clean my ditches, this gets rid of excess water from my fields quickly, however this causes flooding downstream, therefore, I should be paid to not clean my ditches for the greater good of society.

Individual business decision don't spent too much on fertliser. Government should recognise that is not good for society, so should tip the balance so farmers do continue to produce.

The first step in that, is for Government to recognise that there is a looming crisis, and this is were Clarkson's articles are great.
 

Humble Village Farmer

Member
BASE UK Member
Location
Essex
Of course there is a food crisis about to happen you would be mad to disagree with that.
ok lets not call it a crisis, lets call just it a major (massive) shortage

Clarkson isnt offerng a solution as he has no idea what the solution could be. but he is right in flagging up the very real dangers ahead
There's a proper crisis coming, but I think it's unlikely to be too serious in most western countries like the UK. Although, I suppose in a proper, proper crisis there would be a virtual shut down of international trade.
 
Location
southwest
There's nothing wrong with wanting to preserve one's home nation's culture and ethnicity.

Multiculturalism doesn't work. That's why London is awash with black gang bangers stabbing and shooting each other, Asian rape gangs prey on white girls, and the authorities we pay to protect us turn a blind eye in the name of racial harmony.

Just leads to more wars than anything else-look at Serbia, the island of Ireland, several middle East states etc.

Look up the term "ethnic cleansing"

And, of course, this is Putin's reason for sending the army into Ukraine.

Also Racist, but I suspect you don't mind being tarred with that brush.
 

BrianV

Member
Mixed Farmer
Location
Dartmoor
Three things wrong with Clarkson's scenario:

1. There isn't actually a shortage of oil or gas -there's just a supply/distribution issue

2. The hike in fert prices is due to 1.

3. 90% of Ukraine's land area is not a war zone, wheat etc. is being grown as normal.
Isn’t the problem that 90% of Ukrainian’s exports are mostly by sea which the Russians now in the main control plus with many of their silos still full then storing this years crop that they do manage to harvest will be short of suitable storage space
 

onesiedale

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
Derbyshire
Mainly, because someone needs to define 'crisis' for the question to mean anything.
A quick reference to Google throws this up;

a time of intense difficulty or danger.
"the current economic crisis"
Similar:
catastrophe
calamity
cataclysm
emergency
disaster
predicament
plight
mess
dilemma
quandary
setback
reverse
reversal
upheaval
drama
trouble
dire straits
hard times
hardship
adversity
extremity
distress
difficulty
fix
pickle
jam
stew
scrape
bind
hole
sticky situation
hot water
hell
hell on earth
hassle
stress
car crash
spot of bother

a time when a difficult or important decision must be made.
  • "when the crisis came, she does not appear to have hesitated"
    Similar:
    critical point
    decisive point
    turning point
    crossroads
    critical period
 

onesiedale

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
Derbyshire
A quick reference to Google throws this up;

a time of intense difficulty or danger.
"the current economic crisis"
Similar:
catastrophe
calamity
cataclysm
emergency
disaster
predicament
plight
mess
dilemma
quandary
setback
reverse
reversal
upheaval
drama
trouble
dire straits
hard times
hardship
adversity
extremity
distress
difficulty
fix
pickle
jam
stew
scrape
bind
hole
sticky situation
hot water
hell
hell on earth
hassle
stress
car crash
spot of bother

a time when a difficult or important decision must be made.
  • "when the crisis came, she does not appear to have hesitated"
    Similar:
    critical point
    decisive point
    turning point
    crossroads
    critical period
The important one I see here is the reference to making important decisions.
The danger I see coming is that those tasked with the job of making important decisions that effect on others are oblivious to what is coming, and the decisions they make will be irrational.

As for important decisions within my own business and life, I am comfortable with where I am at
 

Bald Rick

Moderator
Livestock Farmer
Location
Anglesey
Can I humbly suggest that a far better read than the Clarkson bit in the magazine is the Dominic Lawson opinion piece in the main section.

40F6DD4F-4DFE-481D-A22F-8465DC95D711.jpeg
 
Three things wrong with Clarkson's scenario:

1. There isn't actually a shortage of oil or gas -there's just a supply/distribution issue

2. The hike in fert prices is due to 1.

3. 90% of Ukraine's land area is not a war zone, wheat etc. is being grown as normal.

You’ve ignored Carrie’s obsession (despite increasing the UK’s and the Johnson clan’s population) with Net Zero.

That has severely impacted the amount of land available for food production, as it is in competition with solar panels
a million houses, maize for digesters and tarmac.

Add to that rewilding, wetlands and the subsidy ridden push to let our land ‘go back to nature’ or plant trees, and Houston we have a problem.

This government and its predecessors all think food can be imported. It can’t. It won’t be there - at any price.

Isn’t the problem that 90% of Ukrainian’s exports are mostly by sea which the Russians now in the main control plus with many of their silos still full then storing this years crop that they do manage to harvest will be short of suitable storage space

Trooo. Although some corn and oilseeds are moving west by rail to Poland and then Rotterdam.

Clarkson is correct in that if a percentage of global basic food supply suddenly disappears, the inbalance will cause more than just hunger in many countries.

Some countries, India is one, have stopped exports of wheat. While other EU members are tearing up their ‘greening’ proposals, in a dig for food policy.

Our government is asleep at the wheel, and has left us very vulnerable. IMO of course.
 

Grass And Grain

Member
Mixed Farmer
Location
Yorks
Strange one.

For years farmers have complained of oversupply. There's been more than sufficient food for past 60 years. Hence low prices and profitability.

Now we're looking at potential shortages, and we're complaining again.

Should the main thing we want to achieve be livestock farmers getting their costs passed along the supply chain.

Fert companies have passed on their increased costs, to am extent cereal farmers happen to be gettting more for grain. So do we want cheaper gas, or subsidised fert or government intervention? Or do we just work on livestock prices?
 

Humble Village Farmer

Member
BASE UK Member
Location
Essex
Strange one.

For years farmers have complained of oversupply. There's been more than sufficient food for past 60 years. Hence low prices and profitability.

Now we're looking at potential shortages, and we're complaining again.

Should the main thing we want to achieve be livestock farmers getting their costs passed along the supply chain.

Fert companies have passed on their increased costs, to am extent cereal farmers happen to be gettting more for grain. So do we want cheaper gas, or subsidised fert or government intervention? Or do we just work on livestock prices?
For this to work, all prices need to properly reflect the cost of production and properly reward the producer.
 

delilah

Member
Clarkson isnt offerng a solution as he has no idea what the solution could be. but he is right in flagging up the very real dangers ahead

What I said then. It's just a whinge.

This 'crisis' . Is it one of food production ? Or food distribution ? Or income ? It has been said that no-one ever starved with a dollar bill in their hand. Is that the issue that should be addressed; disposable income in the developing world ? I assume no-one is suggesting that we are about to go hungry in the west ?
 

Cowabunga

Member
Location
Ceredigion,Wales
He's an informed columnist though, having "done" some farming.

I doubt anyone really disagrees with what he says; some might just disagree with whatever he says because they don't like him.

What's missing for all of us, producer and consumer alike, is what the heck is the solution?
Is there a need for a centrally managed solution as far as the individual farmer is concerned. In fact the individual farmer is managing his/her business as they see fit for their own benefit even as we speak and breathe. Some are cutting back production. Many are using less fertiliser, some are carrying on as usual. Many are mitigating the perceived risk to their financial position. Not many are managing their business with the primary aim, or even a thought about avoiding a widespread famine irrespective of whether it hurts or benefits them financially.
So as always, every individual farm business has their own solution.
 

Cowabunga

Member
Location
Ceredigion,Wales
Clarkson is correct in that if a percentage of global basic food supply suddenly disappears, the inbalance will cause more than just hunger in many countries.

Some countries, India is one, have stopped exports of wheat. While other EU members are tearing up their ‘greening’ proposals, in a dig for food policy.

Our government is asleep at the wheel, and has left us very vulnerable. IMO of course.
It’s already happening in Sri Lanka and the latest is in Iran. Shortly Europe will probably experience the same with Turkey being first, having no money left to import food [or energy] at current or any economically viable price.
 

Cowabunga

Member
Location
Ceredigion,Wales
What I said then. It's just a whinge.

This 'crisis' . Is it one of food production ? Or food distribution ? Or income ? It has been said that no-one ever starved with a dollar bill in their hand. Is that the issue that should be addressed; disposable income in the developing world ? I assume no-one is suggesting that we are about to go hungry in the west ?
The simple fact is that it is likely that when there is a shortage, the people with the highest income can afford to buy while those on the lowest income can’t. It is completely pointless being idealistic and saying that incomes should be levelled worldwide because the simple fact is that it can never be. Up until lately world poverty was at its lowest level ever in history, or at least since the industrial revolution. That is about to change again, for the worse.
It is also complete bullpoo when people point out that in an increasingly wealthy society, the gap between rich and poor widens. Well duh! Of course it does because the gap between 0 and 50 is only half as much as between zero and 100. Simple economics or even basic maths. The aim should be to make as many people as possible relatively wealthy and as few as possible in real poverty. But to achieve the aim of not having poverty, wealth quality jobs has to be created.

It should be obvious that one of the major causes of poverty worldwide is conflict and war. Followed in a close second by corruption at all levels of society. Third is an inept governance including the inability to collect and utilise taxes.
 

onesiedale

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
Derbyshire
What I said then. It's just a whinge.

This 'crisis' . Is it one of food production ? Or food distribution ? Or income ? It has been said that no-one ever starved with a dollar bill in their hand. Is that the issue that should be addressed; disposable income in the developing world ? I assume no-one is suggesting that we are about to go hungry in the west ?
and this is where the solutions are very much out of our hands.
The decision makers have allowed people's incomes to be too disposable on what are now perceived as everyday items other than food.
Namely, housing/property and fuel/transport
There will be a crisis, but it isn't now It will be when the decision makers take the easy way out and kick the can down the road .
Classic example this weekend with the government stepping back from its obesity obligations so that people could continue to afford cheap calories - a wrong decision in my view
 

7610 super q

Never Forgotten
Honorary Member
We have the ability to feed the farming community via bartering I'd imagine, and be at least 80% self sufficient in the UK if the will is there ( It ain't ATM ). That's all that concerns me. I read quite often on here " They'll need to eat rather than spend on Sky TV and mobile phones ". I wonder. I reckon the clueless would rather starve than forgo their 3 trips to Portugal, and Nissan leaf.
Absolutely sick of all this farmer bashing on social media. Fudge um.
Going to make the effort to grow more fruit & veg in the garden every year for myself. Let them eat cake dog shIte, Monbiot's books, and public footpath signs.🖕
 

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Red Tractor drops launch of green farming scheme amid anger from farmers

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As reported in Independent


quote: “Red Tractor has confirmed it is dropping plans to launch its green farming assurance standard in April“

read the TFF thread here: https://thefarmingforum.co.uk/index.php?threads/gfc-was-to-go-ahead-now-not-going-ahead.405234/
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