The war in Ukraine...

Danllan said:

Hmm... possible, but probably not realistic overall. I mentioned an Army chat-room earlier, it has contributors that are currently, verifiably (meaning known to me, or to people I know of and trust) operating in Ukraine. Some, who I don't know myself but who are accepted as genuine by others I do know, have given pretty high estimates of materiel being written off, but - other than for individual units - I haven't seen any claim higher than 70% overall, yet.

But the thing is, even if it's 'only' 50%, that still more than halves the operational effectiveness of the remaining Russian force over there, since its flank protection etc. now require a daft proportion of what remains.

I have seen it mentioned that Ukrainian SF have done an outstanding job in targeting the Russian logistical chain. And that means taking out bridges after convoys have crossed them and then in the front of them, and then mopping up... the number of units they have doing this is pretty high, so I'd not be surprised if the Russian truck fleet inside Ukraine has had more than 75% of its overall numbers put out of use. And, of course, without re-supply, everything else is shafted...

Your 3000 tanks tallies with what I've heard too; I don't know how many Russia really deployed in Ukraine, but I do know that the count of verified hits on them (geolocated by footage and differentiated by damage patterns) was over 600 when I checked last week, which is a huge number, probably more than half those deployed!



Ours, theirs, or both?

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Danllan said:

Hmm... possible, but probably not realistic overall. I mentioned an Army chat-room earlier, it has contributors that are currently, verifiably (meaning known to me, or to people I know of and trust) operating in Ukraine. Some, who I don't know myself but who are accepted as genuine by others I do know, have given pretty high estimates of materiel being written off, but - other than for individual units - I haven't seen any claim higher than 70% overall, yet.

But the thing is, even if it's 'only' 50%, that still more than halves the operational effectiveness of the remaining Russian force over there, since its flank protection etc. now require a daft proportion of what remains.

I have seen it mentioned that Ukrainian SF have done an outstanding job in targeting the Russian logistical chain. And that means taking out bridges after convoys have crossed them and then in the front of them, and then mopping up... the number of units they have doing this is pretty high, so I'd not be surprised if the Russian truck fleet inside Ukraine has had more than 75% of its overall numbers put out of use. And, of course, without re-supply, everything else is shafted...

Your 3000 tanks tallies with what I've heard too; I don't know how many Russia really deployed in Ukraine, but I do know that the count of verified hits on them (geolocated by footage and differentiated by damage patterns) was over 600 when I checked last week, which is a huge number, probably more than half those deployed!



Ours, theirs, or both?

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wounded out of an initial invasion force of 120,000? So around 67% rather than the 80+% I guessed at. Still pretty grim for the Russians.

Muck Spreader said:

Difficult to guess at, but the Ukrainians are claiming 28,000 Russian dead. So at least 18-20,000 actual fatalities, with a ratio of 1 death to 3 wounded (US WW2, 1 to 2.70, Vietnam 1 to 4) would give you a total of 80,000 dead and wounded out of an initial invasion force of 120,000? So around 67% rather than the 80+% I guessed at. Still pretty grim for the Russians.

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its yourself said:

This is what is waiting for the Russians in Finland.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1526827381931094016

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Ashtree said:

There you have it. Squaddies are but a statistic.

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Treg said:

Fate of hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers unclear as Azovstal resistance ends

Ukraine says there will be prisoner swap but some Russian officials have said forces could be tried or executed

www.theguardian.com

Becoming very unclear what's going to happen to these men , I hope their treated fairly, if the UN & Red Cross helped with the surrender, I hope their on the ground keeping a eye on what's happening to them.

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Treg said:

Vladimir Putin loses 42nd colonel in war with Ukraine

Vladimir Putin has lost his 42nd colonel in his war with Ukraine.

www.standard.co.uk

On average Russia losing a Colonel every 2 days.

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Treg said:

Vladimir Putin loses 42nd colonel in war with Ukraine

Vladimir Putin has lost his 42nd colonel in his war with Ukraine.

www.standard.co.uk

On average Russia losing a Colonel every 2 days.

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bobk said:

A leader a week will do

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Danllan said:

Which ever way we look at the numbers, I think the Russian losses can fairly be termed astonishing*. If told at the start that the Ukrainians were getting the better of the Russians, and asked what I'd guess their percentage of soldiers out of action to be, I think I'd have probably gone for something like 15, or maybe 20% max, and I'd have been including all injured in that figure.

The simple fact is that it's unsustainable for Russia, and some time pretty soon this is going to be very obvious to the Russian population. Even mass conscription won't help now, they couldn't be trained in time to be effective, and if sent without training they'll either be annihilated of rebel.

The Ukrainians are putting out a fairly predictable story of Russian units refusing to fight; I'm now starting to wonder if the Ukrainians have been telling us more truth that we realise for some time now...



*Of course, we have no idea what the true stat's for Ukrainian losses are - which will be a fascinating, though rather macabre thing to find out when the history is written. But Ukraine is, can and will put more motivated men on the line that Putin can ever hope to.

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Danllan said:

I did see it, and thought how awful that such a thing should happen; but having now seen the state and 'quality' of large sections of the Russian army, I'm not surprised.

I think it would be unfair to ask the Russians to fight against their own country, no matter how sickened they are by what is happening. As for 'persuasion', as I wrote a couple of months ago, these are mostly frightened kids - certainly some of them have acted appallingly, but many, probably most, haven't. POWs have an absolute right not to be 'persuaded', that's the sort of thing Putin's lot would do.

But, if I were in their position, I would have no objection to helping in a medical capacity.

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Devil's advocate said:

Seems surreal that in wartime conscripts can ring Mum & Dad up for a chat. I suppose they did send letters from Colditz (well in the tv series anyway).

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The British WWI prisoner of war who returned to captivity

A British officer captured during World War I was granted leave to visit his dying mother on one condition - that he return, a historian has discovered.

www.bbc.co.uk

Devil's advocate said:

So you did beleive it?

Those volodmere interviews are very good, he seems to connect very well with the Russian soldiers. When he speaks to their parents on the phone, well they are nuts.

Seems surreal that in wartime conscripts can ring Mum & Dad up for a chat. I suppose they did send letters from Colditz (well in the tv series anyway).

Devil's advocate said:

So you did beleive it?

Those volodmere interviews are very good, he seems to connect very well with the Russian soldiers. When he speaks to their parents on the phone, well they are nuts.

Seems surreal that in wartime conscripts can ring Mum & Dad up for a chat. I suppose they did send letters from Colditz (well in the tv series anyway).

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I think there very good and you see some that I believe show no remorse but go along with that they are a lot of young lads who say they haven’t had much training

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