Sectors most at risk post-Brexit 2020 to free trade deals

jackrussell101 · Jan 22, 2017

Hi everyone,

Just wondering what everyones opinions are on which agricultural sectors are most at risk from free trade deals allowing cheaper foreign food to be imported.

Personally, I see UK dairy and cereals market as the most globalised in price thus being less likely to have a shock. Subsidies could go which could cause pain for the arable sector although dairy would be less affected by that. Root crops would be less affected also I would think.

I see the red meat sector as fairly risky with the potential to import South American or someone else's beef and undercut our own supply. The EU will keep to protect themselves from this. Not sure about the poultry sector, I don't know enough about it.

What does everyone else think?

its yourself · Jan 22, 2017

jackrussell101 said:
Hi everyone,

Just wondering what everyones opinions are on which agricultural sectors are most at risk from free trade deals allowing cheaper foreign food to be imported.

Personally, I see UK dairy and cereals market as the most globalised in price thus being less likely to have a shock. Subsidies could go which could cause pain for the arable sector although dairy would be less affected by that. Root crops would be less affected also I would think.

I see the red meat sector as fairly risky with the potential to import South American or someone else's beef and undercut our own supply. The EU will keep to protect themselves from this. Not sure about the poultry sector, I don't know enough about it.

What does everyone else think?

Here's a link to what the Scottish food sector is saying.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/food-sector-faces-terrifying-tariffs-after-hard-brexit-1-4345486

It will not please most on here.

Tough.

turbo · Jan 22, 2017

its yourself said:
Here's a link to what the Scottish food sector is saying.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/food-sector-faces-terrifying-tariffs-after-hard-brexit-1-4345486

It will not please most on here.

Tough.

The link doesn't seem to work but I can guess it's another load of scaremongering

its yourself · Jan 22, 2017

turbo said:
The link doesn't seem to work but I can guess it's another load of scaremongering

It's the responses by Scotland Food and Drink and the respected and sensible James Withers.

If you don't like it I suggest you have a word with him.
The food and drink industry has legitimate concerns. Start answering them.

Old McDonald · Jan 22, 2017

jackrussell101 said:
I see the red meat sector as fairly risky with the potential to import South American or someone else's beef and undercut our own supply

There is a lot of SAmerican red meat in the supermarkets here, so obviously it is being imported. Also from Poland. A quick check in one supermarket last week (looking for Portuguese fillet( suggested about one third each SA, Poland and Portugal. Just a quick personal observation, not a purposeful check.

If the UK chooses not to import it now, why should it post-EU?

turbo · Jan 22, 2017

its yourself said:
It's the responses by Scotland Food and Drink and the respected and sensible James Withers.

If you don't like it I suggest you have a word with him.
The food and drink industry has legitimate concerns. Start answering them.

Like I said link doesn't work

its yourself · Jan 22, 2017

Old McDonald said:
There is a lot of SAmerican red meat in the supermarkets here, so obviously it is being imported. Also from Poland. A quick check in one supermarket last week (looking for Portuguese fillet( suggested about one third each SA, Poland and Portugal. Just a quick personal observation, not a purposeful check.

If the UK chooses not to import it now, why should it post-EU?

The UK is more likely to important cheap meat for 2 reasons. 1 It will be outside the EU and its import tariff and quota. 2 The UK will want trade deals with the Mercosur states and livestock agriculture can easily be sacrificed to get one.

its yourself · Jan 22, 2017

turbo said:
Like I said link doesn't work

So you have no concerns about market access?

Everything will be peachy wonderful and I'll get a magic pony a Range Rover and sheep will be £250 a lamb post brexit?

turbo · Jan 22, 2017

its yourself said:
So you have no concerns about market access?

Everything will be peachy wonderful and I'll get a magic pony a Range Rover and sheep will be £250 a lamb post brexit?

Do you read what I put

its yourself · Jan 22, 2017

turbo said:
Do you read what I put

Yes.
Oh. Dear. Google. Has. Stopped. Too.

Lol.

turbo · Jan 22, 2017

its yourself said:
Yes.
Oh. Dear. Google. Has. Stopped. Too.

Lol.

I Have more important things to do then look up remoaners rubbish on Google

gone up the hill · Jan 22, 2017

Ref the OP, it will partly depend on tariffs for food in and out of the UK and which country's ( if any ) are allowed to send food to the UK tariff free and if tariffs are put on lamb being exported to the French( for example )

You could have the situation that there is no tariffs on NZ lamb into the UK and no Tarriffs on lamb into France but then it could be the other way around etc etc..

If the French stopped buying UK lamb they will have to buy it elsewhere so it just means we will have to export our lamb elsewhere to fill the gap created and this is one crucial point people are missing.

If tariffs go against us badly then sheep/ beef will be first in the firing line, then arable ( due to less home use and many beef/sheep farmers extending their arable ground at the same time as demand decreases ) then dairy but it all depends what sectors might or might not have tariffs imposed!

Im afraid the reality of the question is no one is likely to know the answers to the OP's question for at least 12/18 months from now!

Henarar · Jan 22, 2017

its yourself said:
Everything will be peachy wonderful and I'll get a magic pony a Range Rover and sheep will be £250 a lamb post brexit?

you really think a magic pony would want a range rover ?
But if that is all it takes to make lambs worth £250 you go for it

its yourself · Jan 22, 2017

Henarar said:
you really think a magic pony would want a range rover ?
But if that is all it takes to make lambs worth £250 you go for it

Lamb will be £250 a head post brexit WTO trade deal.

Problem is that will be worth $1.

wanton dwarf · Jan 22, 2017

jackrussell101 said:
Hi everyone,

Just wondering what everyones opinions are on which agricultural sectors are most at risk from free trade deals allowing cheaper foreign food to be imported.

Personally, I see UK dairy and cereals market as the most globalised in price thus being less likely to have a shock. Subsidies could go which could cause pain for the arable sector although dairy would be less affected by that. Root crops would be less affected also I would think.

I see the red meat sector as fairly risky with the potential to import South American or someone else's beef and undercut our own supply. The EU will keep to protect themselves from this. Not sure about the poultry sector, I don't know enough about it.

What does everyone else think?

Unfortunately HMG & Media seem to think Brexit is all about doing what the EU did but with the rest of the world as well. Nope ... Brexit is about getting HMG to support the people of the UK first and foremost.

Not a few liberals down London, Bristol, Cambridge etc.

There are no more "It's the EU" excuses for not protecting and helping UK people & companies.

What exactly is a "Free Trade Deal" ?

Free Trade deals can be bad when dealing with very large countries because any excess production they have at home can be dumped on smaller markets with little consequence for the larger markets but massive consequences for small markets.

Case in point British Steel & Mr Cameron's failure to stop Chinese imports.

The general election is the place to fight these battles ... but the media either want "situation normal" which is unacceptable or "more situation normal" with other countries which is as bad if not worse.

The first issue that needs acceptance is the abysmal record of HMG protecting UK industry and sectors - followed by a recognition it's unacceptable.

I don't see any point negotiating anything unless HMG changes it's mindset. We are not here to service rich parasites in London.

Henarar · Jan 22, 2017

its yourself said:
Lamb will be £250 a head post brexit WTO trade deal.

Problem is that will be worth $1.

czechmate · Jan 22, 2017

gone up the hill said:
Ref the OP, it will partly depend on tariffs for food in and out of the UK and which country's ( if any ) are allowed to send food to the UK tariff free and if tariffs are put on lamb being exported to the French( for example )

You could have the situation that there is no tariffs on NZ lamb into the UK and no Tarriffs on lamb into France but then it could be the other way around etc etc..

If the French stopped buying UK lamb they will have to buy it elsewhere so it just means we will have to export our lamb elsewhere to fill the gap created and this is one crucial point people are missing.

If tariffs go against us badly then sheep/ beef will be first in the firing line, then arable ( due to less home use and many beef/sheep farmers extending their arable ground at the same time as demand decreases ) then dairy but it all depends what sectors might or might not have tariffs imposed!

Im afraid the reality of the question is no one is likely to know the answers to the OP's question for at least 12/18 months from now!

Another possibility you are missing is that they can easily produce it themselves. This hasn't passed the French govmt by as they are encouraging (via the subs) new entrants into sheep.
As to how many take it up, I am interested to see. On the one hand, beef is over done, cereals have been a catastrophe and the cash flow of getting into sheep is about as good as it gets in farming. On the other hand, all that bloody worming interferes with lunch and is not pleasant work in the hot sun

its yourself · Jan 22, 2017

Henarar said:

John Laurie.

Brilliant man. Friend of my grandparents family.

Here's his biography http://m.imdb.com/name/nm0491406/bio
A total gent and star.

Ashtree · Jan 22, 2017

No free trade deal with EU mightn't be all that bad for UK beef as it would make imports from Ireland less competitive. That's a lot of beef pushed out of the market so significant help to U.K. producers.
Of course there are many other complications.
Households will have less disposable income due to general inflation driven by lower sterling. Imports of lower spec dirt cheap beef from S America if a trade deal happens will be bad.
Of course loss of lamb trade to France might drive some sheepmen into beef. More volume doesn't help prices.
In Ireland beef men suffering from the loss of the beef market to UK will swing to sheep and take up the French lamb market lost by the UK !!!

gone up the hill · Jan 22, 2017

czechmate said:
Another possibility you are missing is that they can easily produce it themselves. This hasn't passed the French govmt by as they are encouraging (via the subs) new entrants into sheep.
As to how many take it up, I am interested to see. On the one hand, beef is over done, cereals have been a catastrophe and the cash flow of getting into sheep is about as good as it gets in farming. On the other hand, all that bloody worming interferes with lunch and is not pleasant work in the hot sun

The reply to that would be ( same as we get told about NZ lamb ) is that they would end up producing too much of one cut and will still need to import our lamb to make up the shortfall of the cuts they need.

Sectors most at risk post-Brexit 2020 to free trade deals

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Up to 25%

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100% I’ve had enough of farming!

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