Farming without subsidies, is there a way....what's your suggestion.

Hilly

Member
Look at the store cattle trade the last few years in Oct/Nov/ Dec, every year without fail the price ends up on the floor in these months, as soon as the BPS payment lands in the majority of accounts the trade will suddenly jump £100/200 head which then puts it on a good footing for the next few months until the cycle starts again.

Also if subs go then a lot of smaller farmers will either quit or scale back their farming unless the deadweight price goes up to cover the lost BPS income.

Reality is that if all subs went the industry would be in for one hell of a shape up 2/3 years down the line and the likes of what hasn't been seen since the depression of the 1930's.
I will stick to reality and the reality at the moment is less subs for most and store cattle never been dearer, predicting the future is a waste of time there are factors no one knows about, anything could happen good or bad.
 

digger64

Member
You are missing the KEY fact that if subs go then suckled calve/ store cattle prices will drop by 20/30% at least so you will only be averaging £400/450 a suckled calve.

Also he is breeding pure bred native calves which when sold as suckled calve's will make a lot less than Contx BBx etc calves that you sell.
If the calf price dropped the overheads would too though
 

Hilly

Member
You are missing the KEY fact that if subs go then suckled calve/ store cattle prices will drop by 20/30% at least so you will only be averaging £400/450 a suckled calve.

Also he is breeding pure bred native calves which when sold as suckled calve's will make a lot less than Contx BBx etc calves that you sell.
I see charo bbx have a little premium over natives.........sometimes, not enough for me to tolerate the calving isssues etc etc and having to buy replacments in etc etc tried it all before they not worth the hassle.
 

digger64

Member
Apart from the hay his system don't sound much different to ours and we ave over 600
suck cows like low cost input...........end of
How long do you budget to winter feed /bed your cows ? I aim for 110 - 120 days feeding and put a bit of bedding down if we get wet snow and a little in march for calving ,not used any this year yet , only used some for calving last year .
 
Dead right there. In NZ the only ones scratching a living out of grain are the ones in the dead right areas for production. Grass grows cheap...
Has to be flat, has to be alluvial, fertile, the autumn climate has to suit harvesting etc etc, which hugely limits our production. We don't have much for export that I'm aware.. hence it's worth almost £200 for last year's wheat.
It's only because the market isn't swamped, and we aren't close to our neighbours that it's high. Drag us 20 miles from Melbourne and it would lose £50/tonne in a flash. It has little to do with COP or land prices, more what people can afford to pay.
Our good dairy seasons a few years back, crushed feed barley was $460 on contract.. landowner put his herd up from 1 manager, 1 staff for 1 herd of 560.. to 720 cows, extra staff unit, run 2 herds.. all to feed grain in the shed while topping grass to waste.. then the forecast payout drops from $7 something to $5 or below and he suddenly realises he has a stupid stupid consultant and a production based system [emoji17]
Now I know this is barely relevant to cost of UK production, but it has everything to do with rowing in the wrong direction with eyes wide shut. I told him so. My words were, if you want to feed grain to your cows, go overseas and do it!!

would it be fair to say dairy will be the way forward for UK AG if subs go? the profit on sheep and sucklers doesn't seem enough and grain will be dominated by big players in the good areas and unviable for anyone in the poorer arable parts
 
Anyone, such as @DrWazzock that wants to go go all sucklers is going to have a big investment to get a decent sized herd up and running. 100 cows will be at least £100k, unless your going to take years to build up.
Then if you end up with a gross margin of £200 a cow, you've made £20k before fixed costs, which won't leave much of a wage.
The good doctor has also said his brother and parents live on the farm, so without support, I just don't see how it all adds up.
20k before fixed costs is nothing a tractor repair & forklift payment could half that straight away
 

Henarar

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
Somerset
I see charo bbx have a little premium over natives.........sometimes, not enough for me to tolerate the calving isssues etc etc and having to buy replacments in etc etc tried it all before they not worth the hassle.
Could be worse, could have bloody Angus :mad:
 
would it be fair to say dairy will be the way forward for UK AG if subs go? the profit on sheep and sucklers doesn't seem enough and grain will be dominated by big players in the good areas and unviable for anyone in the poorer arable parts
Please tell... How will anyone scraping by raising beef, suddenly be able to afford to set up a milking parlour.
How many more dairy farms can the country have, before milk's getting poured down the drain as there's so much of it it's worth nowt.
 
Location
Devon
I will stick to reality and the reality at the moment is less subs for most and store cattle never been dearer, predicting the future is a waste of time there are factors no one knows about, anything could happen good or bad.

The reality is that this side of the border has been a flat rate BPS/SFP payment for several years, every year the price of stores goes down from Oct and stays low until the sub hits the majority of bank accounts, as soon as this happens the price of stores goes up £100/200 head.

And actually the same can be said of store lambs this year and when most people had their subs the trade for store lambs went up another £5/7 head.

If subs went then store cattle values will easily stay at the low Oct/ Nov levels all year around except for a few weeks in spring when grass fever hits.
 
Location
Devon
If the calf price dropped the overheads would too though

Only the cost of cattle will drop, the value of all other inputs will depend on the exchange rate and are not connected to the price of stores in any shape or form.

People that think input costs will go down if subs go are living in cloud cuckoo land im sorry to say!
 

DrWazzock

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Lincolnshire
Only the cost of cattle will drop, the value of all other inputs will depend on the exchange rate and are not connected to the price of stores in any shape or form.

People that think input costs will go down if subs go are living in cloud cuckoo land im sorry to say!

There will be a lot of suppliers stuck with their inputs then.

People need to understand that there could come a point when crops just wont be grown as without BP there just won't be the cash to grow them, even if some folk are daft enough to try.

Drilling next year's crops is only possible if you have the funds to buy the inputs. Optimism is a fine thing but it doesn't buy inputs.

The people who are in cloud cuckoo land are those who have been using BP for years to buy inputs and somehow think that they will be able to carry on buying inputs without BP. For many it just won't be possible, myself included. That's the reality. That's why a different approach is needed.
 

topground

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
North Somerset.
As a young man, so before any EU subsidies I was aware of the advice not to marry a summer graziers daughter, the reason being that her father would be buyng cattle when they were dear in the spring and sellng them when they were cheaper in the autumn so the family would be poor!
Nothing much has changed and the increase in December refered to earlier could well reflect demand as the numbers in the market drop after the autumn flush. On that basis I am not convmced that the sub has any influence on store prices, after all the finishers still have to make a profit and the market dictates the price accordingly based on supply and demand.
My own view for what it is worth is that the future of farmng livestock to make a profit will depend on the value of Sterling and the health of the economy. The 1930's also mentioned earlier was the era of the great depression and mass unemployment so drawing comparisons does not really take us anywhere unless Brexit promotes a world wide recession which seems unlikely. At the moment Joe Public has plenty of disposable income as the figures in the Tmes today confirm.
All the while my suckler beef competes on price because Sterlng against the euro and dollar is low and quality, so that traditional butchers want it and are prepared to pay for it to look after it, rather than the Supermarkets who want to steal it then ruin it I think there is a future.
Havng said that I am unlikely t be buying any shiny new kit to keep up with the neighbours just in case I am wrong!
I would be concerned if I was trying to make a living hanging on the end of a cows tail as a supplier of kit and services to the livestock industry and also the rural economy as a whole.
I believe the whole purpose of the EU common agricultural policy is to pump money into the rural economy to keep the peasants on the land and prevent rural depopulation, particularly in France, rather than to keep food prices low. I have seen no compellng evidence that the sub has any influence or effect on food prices in tne shops.
 
Last edited:

Henarar

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
Somerset
There will be a lot of suppliers stuck with their inputs then.

People need to understand that there could come a point when crops just wont be grown as without BP there just won't be the cash to grow them, even if some folk are daft enough to try.

Drilling next year's crops is only possible if you have the funds to buy the inputs. Optimism is a fine thing but it doesn't buy inputs.

The people who are in cloud cuckoo land are those who have been using BP for years to buy inputs and somehow think that they will be able to carry on buying inputs without BP. For many it just won't be possible, myself included. That's the reality. That's why a different approach is needed.
if the government really slaps farming in the face with no subs and trade deals/tariffs that work against farming some land will be left not farmed that's what happened last time the gov done it and it would happen again

having said that I think there will be subs available to farmers in 2021 and beyond, what shape or form they will be I don't know but they will be there
 

Hilly

Member
The reality is that this side of the border has been a flat rate BPS/SFP payment for several years, every year the price of stores goes down from Oct and stays low until the sub hits the majority of bank accounts, as soon as this happens the price of stores goes up £100/200 head.

And actually the same can be said of store lambs this year and when most people had their subs the trade for store lambs went up another £5/7 head.

If subs went then store cattle values will easily stay at the low Oct/ Nov levels all year around except for a few weeks in spring when grass fever hits.
Cattle are cheaper in oct becasue long winter ahead as the winter shortens price rises, store lamb trade is a total mystery to most, last years profit has more bearing on that trade than sub imo.
 

SFI - What % were you taking out of production?

  • 0 %

    Votes: 80 42.1%
  • Up to 25%

    Votes: 67 35.3%
  • 25-50%

    Votes: 30 15.8%
  • 50-75%

    Votes: 3 1.6%
  • 75-100%

    Votes: 3 1.6%
  • 100% I’ve had enough of farming!

    Votes: 7 3.7%

Red Tractor drops launch of green farming scheme amid anger from farmers

  • 1,294
  • 1
As reported in Independent


quote: “Red Tractor has confirmed it is dropping plans to launch its green farming assurance standard in April“

read the TFF thread here: https://thefarmingforum.co.uk/index.php?threads/gfc-was-to-go-ahead-now-not-going-ahead.405234/
Top