How high is too high

hendrebc · Feb 19, 2018

Lamb is selling really well now great news but is it? I was told last week in ruthin that a big dutch buyer wasnt coming because the lambs were too expensive for them at current exchange rate. Didnt matter they still sold well but it got me thinking.
How high can lamb go before people in shops buying packs of meat cant afford it anymore?
What happens then? Lamb consumption is already in decline. If lamb prices go too high for too long the cost will eventually be passed on to the end consumer and then they will buy less. What happens then lamb prices drop due to lack of demand and people start eating lamb again. We will always have peaks and troughs in the trade and i dont see that ever changing but whats a fair price for everyone? So people can still afford to buy lamb and eat it regularly and we can stand a chance of making a living off the job. Tough question.

Northeastfarmer · Feb 19, 2018

Lamb can’t hang around at £70-80 forever, costs are rising, sooner or later £100 a lamb will have to be the norm

sherg · Feb 19, 2018

It would be interesting to know how much it has gone up in the supermarkets since Christmas it may have gone up a bit but I suspect our % of retail has moved far more and they're still making money, yes lambs can get to dear but they didn't stop eating them when the price jumped about 7 or 8 years ago. don't feel guilty for making a quid now they wont bat an eyelid if they beg them off you for the next 10 years

jendan · Feb 19, 2018

hendrebc said:
Lamb is selling really well now great news but is it? I was told last week in ruthin that a big dutch buyer wasnt coming because the lambs were too expensive for them at current exchange rate. Didnt matter they still sold well but it got me thinking.
How high can lamb go before people in shops buying packs of meat cant afford it anymore?
What happens then? Lamb consumption is already in decline. If lamb prices go too high for too long the cost will eventually be passed on to the end consumer and then they will buy less. What happens then lamb prices drop due to lack of demand and people start eating lamb again. We will always have peaks and troughs in the trade and i dont see that ever changing but whats a fair price for everyone? So people can still afford to buy lamb and eat it regularly and we can stand a chance of making a living off the job. Tough question.

The retail price does not alter much.The supply chain takes the hit,(if indeed there is one),but the next season they usually make sure they can get plenty in cheaper from abroad,and our market price plummets.Who knows next year with Brexit?

Yale · Feb 19, 2018

About time there were decent returns.

Nithsdale · Feb 19, 2018

Only way to secure excellent prices and keep our buyers (exports) is to sink the £.
It's just a bugger London and Westminster don't agree

GTB · Feb 19, 2018

Imo it's large sudden price increases that put customers off. If average lamb prices raised a few pence every year nobody would notice. As said the retail price doesn't vary much so the middle men are making money when lambs are cheap and absorbing some costs when very expensive. Personally I don't think lamb should ever be under £4/kg dw and needs to be closer to £5 to allow a decent margin so that some much needed investment can be afforded.

hendrebc · Feb 19, 2018

I get why people want high prices and if someone offered me £200 for my entire lamb crop id take it and not feel guilty about it id be quite chuffed

anyway back to reality

My question could have probably been worded better. Maybe sustainable average price would have been a better thing to ask peoples opinion on.
Wether we like it or not were competing with cheap chicken, pork and beef mince as well as a load of other vegan crap like quorn so price at the other end does come into it at the end of the day. Were does everyone meet in the middle and stay happy? Id guess @GTB was pretty close to it ar £4+ a kilo obviously rising with inflation? :scratchhead:

Gulli · Feb 19, 2018

hendrebc said:
I get why people want high prices and if someone offered me £200 for my entire lamb crop id take it and not feel guilty about it id be quite chuffed anyway back to reality
My question could have probably been worded better. Maybe sustainable average price would have been a better thing to ask peoples opinion on.
Wether we like it or not were competing with cheap chicken, pork and beef mince as well as a load of other vegan crap like quorn so price at the other end does come into it at the end of the day. Were does everyone meet in the middle and stay happy? Id guess @GTB was pretty close to it ar £4+ a kilo obviously rising with inflation?

Why not change what we are competing against? No point trying to out produce the cheap chicken/pork markets as we can't do the volume cheap enough or quick enough. Or for that matter consistently enough!
Start producing nice food and it will start selling better

monkeydog · Feb 19, 2018

is lamb/sheep consumption not rising in europe along with the increase in muslim population

hendrebc · Feb 19, 2018

Gulli said:
Why not change what we are competing against? No point trying to out produce the cheap chicken/pork markets as we can't do the volume cheap enough or quick enough. Or for that matter consistently enough!
Start producing nice food and it will start selling better

Good idea.
We need eating quality EBVs for that and for the processors to start paying for eating quality instead of confirmation. I dont know how they would do that though. I think NZ possibly Australia are starting something along those lines?

neilo · Feb 19, 2018

Nithsdale Farmer said:
Only way to secure excellent prices and keep our buyers (exports) is to sink the £.
It's just a bugger London and Westminster don't agree

I suspect they are more concerned about the opinions of the vast majority of the electorate that don't export lamb, but consider imported consumer goods and foreign holidays as life essentials these days.

neilo · Feb 19, 2018

hendrebc said:
Good idea.
We need eating quality EBVs for that and for the processors to start paying for eating quality instead of confirmation. I dont know how they would do that though. I think NZ possibly Australia are starting something along those lines?

What makes you think we're behind in the UK?

Recorded UK lambs that have been through a CT scanner have been having intramuscular fat levels measured for several years now. AFAIA that's all the antipodeans are using as a measure of eating quality, so we could be producing those ebvs sooner than you might think.
Would ram buyers pay any attention to them though, when plenty refuse to believe that any other ebvs are worthwhile selection tools? :scratchhead:

There will probably be a school of thought develop, that sheep with one ear longer than the other eats better or something.

Any move to increase eating quality will have to be consumer led, with a premium paid for better and/or penalties applied for worse, before breeding policies will change.

Green farmer · Feb 19, 2018

I don’t know lads. I think lamb as a product just ain’t being marketed right. The difference between what factories are paying farmers for beef and lamb is only around €1 / £1 a kilo. Who’s ever making the money out of it ain’t the farmer.

foobar · Feb 19, 2018

Surely in order to improve eating quality, you have to understand what factors of the animal's life & death have an impact on how it tastes? I know that since I started keeping sheep and eating my own I will never go back to supermarket lamb ever because it has so little flavour. My sheep graze on mixed herbal leys, are a slow growing breed and are hung for at least 7 days and they taste bloody marvellous. Compare that to a commercial fast growing breed grazed on single species rye grass (and possibly grains), which is then hung for maybe 2 days ...no thanks, not for me.

twizzel · Feb 19, 2018

foobar said:
Surely in order to improve eating quality, you have to understand what factors of the animal's life & death have an impact on how it tastes? I know that since I started keeping sheep and eating my own I will never go back to supermarket lamb ever because it has so little flavour. My sheep graze on mixed herbal leys, are a slow growing breed and are hung for at least 7 days and they taste bloody marvellous. Compare that to a commercial fast growing breed grazed on single species rye grass (and possibly grains), which is then hung for maybe 2 days ...no thanks, not for me.

My dorset x lambs finished quickly last year hung for 2 days and ate predominantly ryegrass and they tasted lovely

I think your post was a bit of a sweeping statement :scratchhead:

Back to the original question a lot of people list price as the main factor why they don't eat lamb... we had a half shoulder joint the other Sunday it made 6 meals for my partner and I throughout the week so even if that joint cost £15 in the supermarket it would have been good value. A lot of people don't know how to make the most of joints of lamb/beef/pork and make them last more than 1 meal.

unlacedgecko · Feb 19, 2018

hendrebc said:
Good idea.
We need eating quality EBVs for that and for the processors to start paying for eating quality instead of confirmation. I dont know how they would do that though. I think NZ possibly Australia are starting something along those lines?

US have had that for beef for decades.

beefandsleep · Feb 19, 2018

Lambs were worth £70 in the 70s. It’s too bloody cheap even now.

Kiwi Pete · Feb 19, 2018

Interesting question you pose, @hendrebc - surely it's too expensive already though?
Other than Easter, when is it really holding its own in sales?

Yeah yeah, I know, production costs.... but that's not the consumer's problem, depends whether you want to compete with chicken and beef or not, I guess?

Also, eating quality is only any good if you can afford to buy it, otherwise folk will walk by

hendrebc · Feb 19, 2018

Kiwi Pete said:
Interesting question you pose, @hendrebc - surely it's too expensive already though?
Other than Easter, when is it really holding its own in sales?

Yeah yeah, I know, production costs.... but that's not the consumer's problem, depends whether you want to compete with chicken and beef or not, I guess?

Also, eating quality is only any good if you can afford to buy it, otherwise folk will walk by

I dont see people getting any richer anytime soon. Chicken and beef arent going anywere so we need to at least try and compete somehow dont we? If we want to continue being sheep farmers we need someone to eat it no? If they cant afford to eat it what esle will will we do with it? Sell at a loss for a year or two to try and gain some ground again :scratchhead:

I dont know what the amswer is. Hell im not even sure i know exactly what my question is

How high is too high

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100% I’ve had enough of farming!

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