Drought

Kiwi Pete

Member
Livestock Farmer
How EXACTLY can we prepare ?

It's either a one in ten year drought,
Or, a never ending monsoon.
Crops or varieties that suit a drought, won't suit a monsoon.
A decent long range forecast might help a bit.
What are long range forecasts like in other parts of the world ?, do you have to pay for a decent service ? @Blaithin , @Farmer Roy , @Kiwi Pete ?
Forecasts are pretty useless in terms of bringing the right stuff at the right time - ours talk the talk... but when it comes to it... they tend to completely overreact after an unpredicted foot or two of snow took out electricity to about a quarter of the south island for a few weeks - now any low in the Tasman comes with warning etc so is worse than no forecast at all for farming info :banghead::banghead::banghead:

I have a bit of faith in the Ken Ring "the Moon Man" for predicting trends out a little way (y) based on how the lunar and sunspot cycles etc influence weather patterns, actually pretty close (but also a little bit like a horoscope)

The best preparation for me, and most local pastoral / cropping farms is simply to allow and adjust and prepare for some total failures, explore worst case scenarios.
It is getting to be a different risk, and higher stakes (your signature says it) so much lower input and "hippy" management strategies: no bare soil, companion and cover cropping that will at least be salvageable by livestock if unsuccessful to harvest in the window - just been discussing the use of sheep as a PGR / fungicide replacement for cheaper cereals

Simplify systems to reduce essential time inputs - so bringing in off farm income can be done more easily, and some contracting offsets machinery costs, engineering in the workshop, every drop helps - if not it simply means more leisure

For me, regenerating our soils and leave them alone -! so it works as soil and isn't like 'play-doh' - learning about improving water cycles has been a big one for me, and improving infiltration to handle what comes - storing what we get for when it doesn't.... if our year's rain came in 3 days nothing would runoff the surface, 8 inches per hour it can handle now

Deep ripping on the contour to divert rainwater from natural catchments across slopes to share any mega rain events across more area - like the KeyLine system

Trees - help to create microclimates and raise temperatures at the shoulders of the season to push out growing seasons

Biodiversity - usually some plant will be loving it, whatever the weather, so cover more bases

Better grazing management is obviously the biggest one for livestock farming, longer rotations and longer grass means better chance of success and less unnecessary spending on drugs and crack to bandaid complications from overgrazing

The main one is integration of livestock on cropping farms, it really went out of fashion but it is back with bells on now, even if it isn't very profitable it drastically reduces costs so boosts profits, or reduces losses in the crops

Using that liquidity of stock trading, my intentions of finishing lambs this year went out the window and so did they, and still made my intended margin, saved a lot of feed that way.

Lots of different angles; but mainly environmental adjustments and being more aware that as farmers we create many of the issues by our actions: we wreck natural cycles and then have little comeback from it, and some are too reliant on things being "average" when they never are...
I am setup to prey on those types of farmers with winter feed, and plenty of cash can be pulled straight off the sharemarket to create opportunities, or seize them - I would never have all my eggs in the farming basket, times have changed there.
Expansion is definitely not for me, I bought a small piece with the immediate intention of onselling it for a profit, more farm = more time... we only have so much time
 
Last edited:

glasshouse

Member
Location
lothians
Forecasts are pretty useless in terms of bringing the right stuff at the right time - ours talk the talk... but when it comes to it...
I have a bit of faith in the Ken Ring "the Moon Man" for predicting trends out a little way (y) based on how the lunar and sunspot cycles etc influence weather patterns, actually pretty close (but also a little bit like a horoscope)

The best preparation for me, and most local pastoral / cropping farms is simply to allow and adjust and prepare for some total failures, explore worst case scenarios.
It is getting to be a different risk, and higher stakes (your signature says it) so much lower input and "hippy" management strategies: no bare soil, companion and cover cropping that will at least be salvageable by livestock if unsuccessful to harvest in the window - just been discussing the use of sheep as a PGR / fungicide replacement for cheaper cereals

Simplify systems to reduce essential time inputs - so bringing in off farm income can be done more easily, and some contracting offsets machinery costs, engineering in the workshop, every drop helps - if not it simply means more leisure

For me, regenerating our soils and leave them alone -! so it works as soil and isn't like 'play-doh' - learning about improving water cycles has been a big one for me, and improving infiltration to handle what comes - storing what we get for when it doesn't.... if our year's rain came in 3 days nothing would runoff the surface, 8 inches per hour it can handle now

Deep ripping on the contour to divert rainwater from natural catchments across slopes to share any mega rain events across more area - like the KeyLine system

Trees - help to create microclimates and raise temperatures at the shoulders of the season to push out growing seasons

Biodiversity - usually some plant will be loving it, whatever the weather, so cover more bases

Better grazing management is obviously the biggest one for livestock farming, longer rotations and longer grass means better chance of success and less unnecessary spending on drugs and crack to bandaid complications from overgrazing

The main one is integration of livestock on cropping farms, it really went out of fashion but it is back with bells on now, even if it isn't very profitable it drastically reduces costs so boosts profits, or reduces losses in the crops

Using that liquidity of stock trading, my intentions of finishing lambs this year went out the window and so did they, and still made my intended margin, saved a lot of feed that way.

Lots of different angles; but mainly environmental adjustments and being more aware that as farmers we create many of the issues by our actions: we wreck natural cycles and then have little comeback from it, and some are too reliant on things being "average" when they never are...
I am setup to prey on those types of farmers with winter feed, and plenty of cash can be pulled straight off the sharemarket to create opportunities, or seize them - I would never have all my eggs in the farming basket, times have changed there.
Expansion is definitely not for me, I bought a small piece with the immediate intention of onselling it for a profit, more farm = more time... we only have so much time
how much is k line irrigatyion stuff?
 

Chae1

Member
Location
Aberdeenshire
I want to see some of these dying drought struck crops! ?

Come on show farmer Roy how your suffering.

I suspect not a lot.

I'll give it a fortnight without rain then I'll have some crops dying on knapps.

Until then I'm enjoying the nice weather. Being able to get up every day and do what I want and not spending time looking for a day without rain.
 

hendrebc

Member
Livestock Farmer
20180521_124728.jpg

NOT A DROUGHT
This field was turnips this winter and had standing water on it for most of that. It was a bloody swamp. Its clay and had capped quite badly after that and its only just dried enough to be able to drive on it. Am quite glad to see the cracks to give it a good aerating without having to drag more metal through it. Will regrass it sometime this month or next. Not a drought though but someone with shallow rooted crop in it might call it dry or even a drought.
Whats everyone else got to show then? o_O
 
I want to see some of these dying drought struck crops! ?

Come on show farmer Roy how your suffering.

I suspect not a lot.

I'll give it a fortnight without rain then I'll have some crops dying on knapps.

Until then I'm enjoying the nice weather. Being able to get up every day and do what I want and not spending time looking for a day without rain.
Yes it won’t be long before we are looking for dry days instead of when the next rain will be - time to crack on!
 

CornishTone

Member
BASIS
Location
Cornwall
How EXACTLY can we prepare ?

It's either a one in ten year drought,
Or, a never ending monsoon.
Crops or varieties that suit a drought, won't suit a monsoon.
A decent long range forecast might help a bit.
What are long range forecasts like in other parts of the world ?, do you have to pay for a decent service ? @Blaithin , @Farmer Roy , @Kiwi Pete ?

As a rule the forecast isn’t too bad but I think it is getting harder for them to predict. The BOM are increasingly hedging their bets in this area. We’ve been forecast an equal chance of above or below average rainfall for months now as all the models can’t figure it out. May was supposed to be average but we’ll need a sh!t load of rain now for it to be average. November was the last time we had a rain event that gave us 10mm in one go. We are still some way below average but they keep saying the winter months will be “and equal chance of above and below average rainfall”.

There are still parts just to the east of the Murray River that have had no rain as yet and have yet to sow anything.

As Roy said, the D word is very much a dirty word out here!
 

Farmer Roy

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
NSW, Newstralya
How EXACTLY can we prepare ?

It's either a one in ten year drought,
Or, a never ending monsoon.
Crops or varieties that suit a drought, won't suit a monsoon.
A decent long range forecast might help a bit.
What are long range forecasts like in other parts of the world ?, do you have to pay for a decent service ? @Blaithin , @Farmer Roy , @Kiwi Pete ?

Forecasts are pretty useless in terms of bringing the right stuff at the right time - ours talk the talk... but when it comes to it... they tend to completely overreact after an unpredicted foot or two of snow took out electricity to about a quarter of the south island for a few weeks - now any low in the Tasman comes with warning etc so is worse than no forecast at all for farming info :banghead::banghead::banghead:

I have a bit of faith in the Ken Ring "the Moon Man" for predicting trends out a little way (y) based on how the lunar and sunspot cycles etc influence weather patterns, actually pretty close (but also a little bit like a horoscope)

The best preparation for me, and most local pastoral / cropping farms is simply to allow and adjust and prepare for some total failures, explore worst case scenarios.
It is getting to be a different risk, and higher stakes (your signature says it) so much lower input and "hippy" management strategies: no bare soil, companion and cover cropping that will at least be salvageable by livestock if unsuccessful to harvest in the window - just been discussing the use of sheep as a PGR / fungicide replacement for cheaper cereals

Simplify systems to reduce essential time inputs - so bringing in off farm income can be done more easily, and some contracting offsets machinery costs, engineering in the workshop, every drop helps - if not it simply means more leisure

For me, regenerating our soils and leave them alone -! so it works as soil and isn't like 'play-doh' - learning about improving water cycles has been a big one for me, and improving infiltration to handle what comes - storing what we get for when it doesn't.... if our year's rain came in 3 days nothing would runoff the surface, 8 inches per hour it can handle now

Deep ripping on the contour to divert rainwater from natural catchments across slopes to share any mega rain events across more area - like the KeyLine system

Trees - help to create microclimates and raise temperatures at the shoulders of the season to push out growing seasons

Biodiversity - usually some plant will be loving it, whatever the weather, so cover more bases

Better grazing management is obviously the biggest one for livestock farming, longer rotations and longer grass means better chance of success and less unnecessary spending on drugs and crack to bandaid complications from overgrazing

The main one is integration of livestock on cropping farms, it really went out of fashion but it is back with bells on now, even if it isn't very profitable it drastically reduces costs so boosts profits, or reduces losses in the crops

Using that liquidity of stock trading, my intentions of finishing lambs this year went out the window and so did they, and still made my intended margin, saved a lot of feed that way.

Lots of different angles; but mainly environmental adjustments and being more aware that as farmers we create many of the issues by our actions: we wreck natural cycles and then have little comeback from it, and some are too reliant on things being "average" when they never are...
I am setup to prey on those types of farmers with winter feed, and plenty of cash can be pulled straight off the sharemarket to create opportunities, or seize them - I would never have all my eggs in the farming basket, times have changed there.
Expansion is definitely not for me, I bought a small piece with the immediate intention of onselling it for a profit, more farm = more time... we only have so much time

err, I think Pete pretty much nailed it there (y)
I think those principles or a variation on them are as useful & valid whether you are on 100 acres, 1000 acres or 100,000 acres

my problem is, for various reasons all my eggs are currently in the farming basket, so it doesn't give me as many options

as for forecasts, personally I pay little attention to them apart from the immediate short term ones.
I don't think the problem is lack of accuracy or any failings on the part of BOM or whoever, rather that weather & climate is moving into an increasingly unpredictable & extreme patterns with increased volatility.
This is a topic quite often debated here, better forecasts. However, by the very nature of "forecasts", "predictions" & the extreme variability of weather, what % of accuracy is acceptable, or actually achievable ? If people base major decisions on a forecast weather pattern ( eg - me, with no moisture, taking a punt & planting 2000 acres because the long term forecast is for wetter than average ) without taking other risk management actions & a holistic approach to their whole business & the forecast is wrong, who's liable ? Do I blame my own management, or do I blame the BOM ? Personally, it would be my fault, but not all would see it that way
 
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CornishTone

Member
BASIS
Location
Cornwall
err, I think Pete pretty much nailed it there (y)
I think those principles or a variation on them are as useful & valid whether you are on 100 acres, 1000 acres or 100,000 acres

my problem is, for various reasons all my eggs are currently in the farming basket, so it doesn't give me as many options

as for forecasts, personally I pay little attention to them apart from the immediate short term ones.
I don't think the problem is lack of accuracy or any failings on the part of BOM or whoever, rather that weather & climate is moving into an increasingly unpredictable & extreme patterns with increased volatility
this is a topic quite often debated here, better forecasts. However, by the very nature of "forecasts", "predictions" & the extreme variability of weather, what % of accuracy is acceptable, or actually achievable ? If people base major decisions on a forecast weather pattern ( eg - me, with no moisture, taking a punt & planting 2000 acres because the long term forecast is for wetter than average ) without taking other risk management actions & a holistic approach to their whole business & the forecast is wrong, who's liable ? Do I blame my own management, or do I blame the BOM ? Personally, it would be my fault, but not all would see it that way

Yup, this!

It’s interesting, I’ve only been here 3 years yet I’ve been through the driest year in 50 years, the wettest year in 90 years and one of the worst fires the state has ever seen.

Of course you can’t make any sort of judgment on just 3 years, so I bow to Roy’s lifetime of experience, but most people are saying the same thing here, the extremes are becoming more common. Which in turn means the term “average” becomes less and less relevant.

It’s like any forecast though, the further forward you look the more of a lottery it becomes!
 

Farmer Roy

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
NSW, Newstralya
so @CornishTone , are you seeing a downturn in your business ? It is not only farmers who hurt, but also their suppliers & service industries, along with every other business & retail outlet in rural / agriculture reliant towns

talking to someone at management level from Landmark the other day, he was saying the merchandise side has virtually come to a halt, apart from a few lick blocks etc. He did say though that senior management were gearing up for a very busy time ahead, talking to & negotiating with clients, working through this period for beneficial outcomes for both parties, some people only a few hours west of here are facing 3 years of no income . . .
 
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CornishTone

Member
BASIS
Location
Cornwall
It’s very up and down at the moment. Every time we get a little rain event it goes mad for a week as confidence builds. There’s an equation which estimates every mm of rain bring $1 million to the states Ag sector.

We had a very, very slow start in the build up to autumn when things would usually be going out on farm in preparation. That really didn’t happen in earnest till ANZAC day, by which time people would usually have already been sowing.

We’ve had a couple rains now so everything has been done in a bit of a rush. I think overall we’ll be a little bit down on “average” but inevitably people will eventually sow something so it shouldn’t be by a lot.

Been quite surprised by the amount of pasture seed going out. I suspect on the back of good beef, lamb and wool prices there’s a bit of money in the system to take a chance on the rain.

Dry land species like Phalaris, Cocksfoot and Fescues have been in very short supply nationally which, I think, tells it’s own story. Either it’s been too dry to get any seed yield or people are gearing up for a dry time... or a bit of both.

End of financial year will tell the story in full I guess.

It’s a funny old season by all accounts!
 

Kiwi Pete

Member
Livestock Farmer
i meant k-line
Not too bad, about $6k for a ten pod kit pipe and a Honda pump
closer to 10k for the 15 pod kit and bigger pump

We get plenty of rainfall, storing then utilising it is cheaper than sprinkling it on top and encouraging even less root depth - you can't beat that early nitrogen for growing a nice leafy plant with not enough root system to hydrate itself though.... :unsure:

unprotected soil surface
+monoculture
+nitrogen
+dry
=drought
View attachment 673992
NOT A DROUGHT
This field was turnips this winter and had standing water on it for most of that. It was a bloody swamp. Its clay and had capped quite badly after that and its only just dried enough to be able to drive on it. Am quite glad to see the cracks to give it a good aerating without having to drag more metal through it. Will regrass it sometime this month or next. Not a drought though but someone with shallow rooted crop in it might call it dry or even a drought.
Whats everyone else got to show then? o_O
Good aeration - don't mess with that :cool:
This is why your frogs didn't spawn. :)
 

DRC

Member
Just had 15mm in an hour .
Thought we might get a storm around that time,as it went very windy here and the temp dropped quickly . It was rough all night, but no rain. We often miss showers here, as they either follow the welsh hills to the west, or skip off down the Cheshire gap.
 

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