Comfort eating

Walterp

Member
Location
Pembrokeshire
In 1978 Jim Callaghan warned the labour unions, again and again, that failure to carry on supporting his (largely successful) prices/incomes policy to defeat inflation would cause chaos, and allow back into power the very Party that had caused that ruinous inflation in the first place. No one was listening.

Alongside the developed world's lowest literacy rate, the UK has one of the poorest political spheres: low levels of interest in political analysis, low calibre MPs, and a declining ability of the English ruling classes to differentiate between self interest and the national interest.

'You get the politicians you deserve.' (Socrates)

Today, no one is listening to the case for interest rates to revert to their mean - 5% base.

Yet the Fed wants it, and the Bank of England (probably the only context in which I can mention 'England' without being howled at by over-sensitive English reactionaries) wants it - the obvious political and economic costs of suppressing the cost of money now outweigh its benefits. The law of diminishing returns, and all that.

This should be alarming UK farmers, but it is not - people don't want concepts that require them to think too much about abstracts. They want the thinking equivalent of comfort eating: raising rates will damage the economy, ergo it won't happen.

So, like luckless Farmer Jim, you can tell people that interest rate rises are likely but you can't inform them.

Instead, people invent reasons why it can't happen.

But here's one reason that guarantees that it will - 'inflation'.
 

caveman

Member
Location
East Sussex.
Seem to remember a Bank of Scotland doing rather well.
Maybe a Bank of Wales should have a bash at getting it right.
As for getting politicians the voters deserve. For the past forty years, we've only had and indeed have now, administrators who indulge in fantasy and self promotion.
Maybe some real leaders will emerge, when being elected to lead, actually becomes a proper job once more.
 
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Walterp

Member
Location
Pembrokeshire
Because the Scottish ruling classes did such a good job before them (Brown et al.)

Because the Welsh ruling classes (Kinnocks) weren't good enough to beat a hated Tory government.
I'm not sure of your point - history demonstrates that Farmer Jim was correct both in his policy prescriptions (a prices/incomes policy can work) and in what would occur if Margaret Thatcher gained power, yet he failed to convince people either in the labour unions or in the electorate.

Being 'right' isn't enough.

Interestingly, the world has arrived at the point where interest rates are seen as the primary tool to suppress inflation - despite alternative tools being available.

This suggests to me that simple narratives - even if painful and damaging - are easier to convey (and to execute) than more complicated ones.
 

DrWazzock

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Lincolnshire
Agreed. An underperforming real economy with an over supply of money can only lead to inflation.

It's here already in land, house and machinery prices. Commodities are beginning to catch up.

I went into an electrical wholesaler shop for some components and for first time in years I thought to myself that the parts were expensive.

Some kind of correction is imminent.
 
Location
Cheshire
I'm not sure of your point - history demonstrates that Farmer Jim was correct both in his policy prescriptions (a prices/incomes policy can work) and in what would occur if Margaret Thatcher gained power, yet he failed to convince people either in the labour unions or in the electorate.

Being 'right' isn't enough.

Interestingly, the world has arrived at the point where interest rates are seen as the primary tool to suppress inflation - despite alternative tools being available.

This suggests to me that simple narratives - even if painful and damaging - are easier to convey (and to execute) than more complicated ones.
You mentioned the declining ability of the English ruling classes, just pointing out declination is not exclusive to the English.
 

caveman

Member
Location
East Sussex.
I also agree we don't have statesmen capable of explaining the situation to the people. We just have short term populists. It is a serious mess, undoubtedly, especially combined with Brexit.

And generally we are our own worst enemies.

I would suggest that brexit is actually the wake up call we've needed, to show up to those who have been blinded, the inadequacies in whole swathes of the UK and indeed the EU models.
 

Ashtree

Member
[QUOTE="Walterp, post: 5203654

This suggests to me that simple narratives - even if painful and damaging - are easier to convey (and to execute) than more complicated ones.[/QUOTE]

Indeed! Therin lies the tragedy that has become Brexit. The extraordinary simplicity of the question on the ballot paper, preceded by a poor information campaign, where pertinent facts and details as to life post referendum were drowned out by noisy, rif raf type football hooligan sloganeering from the Toff brigade of government and the political classes.
Yes indeed, political debate and the responsibility to keep the public informed in a balanced way, has these days been distilled down to angry tweets and sloganeering. Depth of discussion and time for reflection is but a thing of the past.

I’m glad really that society and government in Ireland had the maturity to fund and set up a “citizens assembly”, several years before the recent tumultuous referendum on the eitght amendment (abortion) to the constitution.

THIS time the people were informed enough to look through the inevitable hostile noise eminating from both sides of the debate. Twitter, Facebook, and banner tabloid type headlines failed to overcome rational debate and supply of balanced information. Oh, and the fire and brimstone preaching of the Catholic Church, was also put firmly in context by the general flow of debate and information.

You could say we have learned from the Nice referendum fiasco. No need to repeat ones mistakes.

https://www.citizensassembly.ie/en/About-the-Citizens-Assembly/
 
Walter, Simple Saes here again agree that quality of politicians is low and hence public engagement is now abysmal but if you are so concerned why not stand for public office yourself, needless to say any thinking person knows that interest rates will rise that is the only way open to them . Gentleman jim may have been right 40years ago but it is questionable if the policy would work effectively today with our industrial base having been eroded .
 

DrWazzock

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Lincolnshire
I would suggest that brexit is actually the wake up call we've needed, to show up to those who have been blinded, the inadequacies in whole swathes of the UK and indeed the EU models.

But what are we going to replace those models with?

I have the feeling that if we couldn't make the existing models work, then we can't design a functional new one either.

It's looks as though any new agreement with the EU on trade will be worse than what we have now, for example.

The country was swept up in populist fervour over Brexit by opportunists and idealists but there was no competent agency in place or serious plan to deliver it. It was never meant to happen, but it did.

I still think there is an outside chance of success but maybe not until we have had 20 years of pain and turmoil. Is it really worth it?

Events will probably overtake the present situation though.
 
But what are we going to replace those models with?

I have the feeling that if we couldn't make the existing models work, then we can't design a functional new one either.

It's looks as though any new agreement with the EU on trade will be worse than what we have now, for example.

The country was swept up in populist fervour over Brexit by opportunists and idealists but there was no competent agency in place or serious plan to deliver it. It was never meant to happen, but it did.

I still think there is an outside chance of success but maybe not until we have had 20 years of pain and turmoil. Is it really worth it?

Events will probably overtake the present situation though.

I agree in part but not all.
The UK is just too big and too connected to fail.
 

Walterp

Member
Location
Pembrokeshire
You mentioned the declining ability of the English ruling classes, just pointing out declination is not exclusive to the English.
I referred to the 'English ruling classes' because our system, although partly federal, is still largely governed by Westminster.

I think - but do not know - that satisfaction with Scots and Welsh assembly members is higher. That's based just on observation; I know our First Minister personally as a genuine and sincere man; Scots smile when they talk about Nicola Sturgeon, which I take as approval of sorts.

But I agree it's a moot point.
 
I would suggest that brexit is actually the wake up call we've needed, to show up to those who have been blinded, the inadequacies in whole swathes of the UK and indeed the EU models.
What is never often quoted is the massive corruption within Brussels. There is at least one book on it and a lot of individual articles. The place is a swamp run by swamp donkeys and we need out.
Various other EU countries will join us in market based agreements as when they no longer have our money and in fact are close to not getting the 48 billion ransom the whole edifice will fall apart.
 

Walterp

Member
Location
Pembrokeshire
What is never often quoted is the massive corruption within Brussels. There is at least one book on it and a lot of individual articles. The place is a swamp run by swamp donkeys and we need out.
Various other EU countries will join us in market based agreements as when they no longer have our money and in fact are close to not getting the 48 billion ransom the whole edifice will fall apart.
It's interesting that people can genuinely believe this simple smear; it's because it fits with what they want to believe (the point of this OP) rather than the objective - and rather more complicated - reality.

The Treaty of Rome predates my birth, the EU has been established for 65 years, and has potential members queuing to join. There is no evidence that it 'will fall apart' yet people wish it to.

There is greater evidence that the UK will fall apart - both N Ireland and Scotland are mutinous, and Wales isn't particularly happy either at the standard of UK governance.

There is an interesting counter-argument that the political class that it, actually, both corrupt and incompetent is the English one, rather than the European one. If that is so (and there is some evidence to support it) then we are all in rather serious trouble.
 
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SFI - What % were you taking out of production?

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Red Tractor drops launch of green farming scheme amid anger from farmers

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As reported in Independent


quote: “Red Tractor has confirmed it is dropping plans to launch its green farming assurance standard in April“

read the TFF thread here: https://thefarmingforum.co.uk/index.php?threads/gfc-was-to-go-ahead-now-not-going-ahead.405234/
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