Combinables Price Tracker

Last year they paid high prices for early August wheat so took cover
141 which was not beaten till June

Is today a Shake the trees and see what falls out type of day
Dead cat bounce to morrow

Storage is not a problem for many this year so early movement is not as essential there is still wheat to harvest around here and we had 15 mm of rain in 20 minutes to day
 

David.

Member
Mixed Farmer
Location
J11 M40
Well if the bullish sentiment of the last couple of weeks on here is to be believed, yesterday was a day that suckers who may have rent and mortgage payments to make all bailed; before further strong gains are made by those with bigger balls, and even bigger stocks of unsold harvest 16 and 17 grain.
 

D14

Member
Well if the bullish sentiment of the last couple of weeks on here is to be believed, yesterday was a day that suckers who may have rent and mortgage payments to make all bailed; before further strong gains are made by those with bigger balls, and even bigger stocks of unsold harvest 16 and 17 grain.

I think anybody can only go with what they know for a fact and of my farming friends and our local group there is no carry over crops in stores this year where there would always normally be. Couple that with reduced yields and then seeing what’s happening around Europe in particular but all I can see is price rises.
 

crazy_bull

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
Huntingdon
I think anybody can only go with what they know for a fact and of my farming friends and our local group there is no carry over crops in stores this year where there would always normally be. Couple that with reduced yields and then seeing what’s happening around Europe in particular but all I can see is price rises.
Prices had risen £60 from base to highs, will it go any more?

C B
 

D14

Member
Prices had risen £60 from base to highs, will it go any more?

C B

Maybe not in the short term but I think come the new year yes it will. How much no idea but I still think its undervalued but the market has not caught up yet because the buyers aren't shouting due to still using old stock. What will be interesting is harvest next year when we get to it because a general worldwide short now, coupled with no big stock piles then coupled with an average 2019 harvest could really send things silly. £300 ........
 

Hindsight

Member
Location
Lincolnshire
I think anybody can only go with what they know for a fact and of my farming friends and our local group there is no carry over crops in stores this year where there would always normally be. Couple that with reduced yields and then seeing what’s happening around Europe in particular but all I can see is price rises.

Hi, may I try an interesting academic exercise.

In that case you are primed psychologically to expect the price to rise (are you?). So you will presumably be a holder of grain and sell for cashflow purposes only on a spot basis - as you anticipate further rises in prices due to scarcity. What about the posters on other threads who have had good yields of wheat maybe near to or around their farm long term average. There predisposition may be different. As ever markets are but a collection of perceptions.

Always fascinating to observe. Best of luck.
 

D14

Member
Hi, may I try an interesting academic exercise.

In that case you are primed psychologically to expect the price to rise (are you?). So you will presumably be a holder of grain and sell for cashflow purposes only on a spot basis - as you anticipate further rises in prices due to scarcity. What about the posters on other threads who have had good yields of wheat maybe near to or around their farm long term average. There predisposition may be different. As ever markets are but a collection of perceptions.

Always fascinating to observe. Best of luck.

I just think generally yields are down. Yes there are pockets of great yields reported due to rain in June, but the most of the country missed that saviour. I know of potato crops that are being written off due to not being able to irrigate them. Maize crops are 2/3rd normal size, there was no 2nd cut silage in the main. Generally things are bad yield wise for the UK this year.
As for what we will do, then I am an OSR seller as I can't see much upside in that crop and we are selling straw for cashflow but the cereal crops will be staying in the shed until the new year. If we are wrong and the prices falls then thats marketing. Many of my friends are taking the same approach this year.
 

Hindsight

Member
Location
Lincolnshire
I just think generally yields are down. Yes there are pockets of great yields reported due to rain in June, but the most of the country missed that saviour. I know of potato crops that are being written off due to not being able to irrigate them. Maize crops are 2/3rd normal size, there was no 2nd cut silage in the main. Generally things are bad yield wise for the UK this year.
As for what we will do, then I am an OSR seller as I can't see much upside in that crop and we are selling straw for cashflow but the cereal crops will be staying in the shed until the new year. If we are wrong and the prices falls then thats marketing. Many of my friends are taking the same approach this year.


Concurr. Hope it all goes well. Am about to go look at some non irrigated potatoes. The rain yesterday has in my view come far to late. There are going to be some very poor individual crops about. Hey ho.
 
With the sunlight levels we had any one whose did not suffer in the wet spring and had rain in June will have food yields

If half the area is down 20% the others half has to be average to only have a 10% fall
14 million original prediction down 10% leave a12.6 million
Most trade predictions I see or here are 13.5 million tonne
Which is closer
 

MrNoo

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Cirencester
OSR nearly all gone here, sat on milling wheat and malting barley currently, cash-flow and tax bill sorted so will just sit tight for now am expecting it to go up again but not sure when!!!
 

Daniel

Member
Personally I think that is massively undervalued but as mentioned before the market hasn't woken up to that fact yet because if theres no carry over stock this year, there sure as hell won't be any next year.

You may very well be right, but, it's on rented ground in a shed needed for potatoes, so if that's the worst price for 2019 then it won't be so bad!?
 

Flat 10

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Fen Edge
Well if the bullish sentiment of the last couple of weeks on here is to be believed, yesterday was a day that suckers who may have rent and mortgage payments to make all bailed; before further strong gains are made by those with bigger balls, and even bigger stocks of unsold harvest 16 and 17 grain.
I was a sucker who bailed (baled surely? :cautious:) yesterday with some. £180 plus premiums Sep. Oh and a load of beans at £200 for sep.
 

Renaultman

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Darlington
I just think generally yields are down. Yes there are pockets of great yields reported due to rain in June, but the most of the country missed that saviour. I know of potato crops that are being written off due to not being able to irrigate them. Maize crops are 2/3rd normal size, there was no 2nd cut silage in the main. Generally things are bad yield wise for the UK this year.
As for what we will do, then I am an OSR seller as I can't see much upside in that crop and we are selling straw for cashflow but the cereal crops will be staying in the shed until the new year. If we are wrong and the prices falls then thats marketing. Many of my friends are taking the same approach this year.
I think there will be more gains in OSR than wheat between now and June, as ever just my humble opinion, after June, anybodies business.
 

SFI - What % were you taking out of production?

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Red Tractor drops launch of green farming scheme amid anger from farmers

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As reported in Independent


quote: “Red Tractor has confirmed it is dropping plans to launch its green farming assurance standard in April“

read the TFF thread here: https://thefarmingforum.co.uk/index.php?threads/gfc-was-to-go-ahead-now-not-going-ahead.405234/
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