Who Knows How Many Lambs There Are To Be Sold This Winter?

Frank-the-Wool · Oct 17, 2018

A piece from the Farmers Weekly below.

"The 2018 UK lamb crop is estimated to be about a million head lower than in 2017, because of the harsh spring weather.

June 2018 census figures published by the Scottish government point to 8% fewer lambs on farms at 1 June than in the previous year – the lowest lamb crop since 2013.

Defra’s provisional UK-wide census figures put the overall drop in the lamb crop at 2%, which equates to a fall of 400,000 head."

However this may be a conservative estimate of the reduction as there have been !.76 million less sheep ear tags ordered so far this year!
If one extrapolates that forward then there could be up to 2 million less lambs.
Before you all get excited and rush out and buy loads of cheap store lambs, it is highly likely that slaughter numbers may not be down as much this year due to ewe lambs being killed, the shortage of feed and of course Brexit.
The Supermarkets are full of New Zealand lamb at the moment which must have cost them significantly more than British lamb is at the moment!

firther · Oct 17, 2018

why are supermarkets full of new Zealand lamb in autumn!!

only reason for that is it keeps our prices low as as there is plenty of supply, There making sure prices don't hit last years levels

neilo · Oct 17, 2018

How many less tags have been bought because the lambs haven't gone yet. Like a lot of people I know, my lambs sales are 6-8 weeks behind last year, after feck all grass in the summer. Slaughter tags generally get bought when they're ready to go, or soon before. However, a lot are also feeding hard still, with little fodder available, and those lambs have to go when fit.
I did hear yesterday that a supermarket had tried to secure lambs in NZ for later on, and was unable to source any at the money they were willing to pay.

My prediction is that the current glut will go on for a while yet, as forced sellers (for forage and financial reasons) have to clear them, but they will be VERY short later on. A brave man might be tempted to keep some until after March, and he might just be rewarded handsomely if everyone else has sold. Well worth holding them for a few months if you possibly can, imho. I wish I was in the position to hold everything myself.

Green farmer · Oct 17, 2018

I’m of the same opinion as yourself Neilo, but as you rightly said carrying them over to get the high money would be a costly prospect this winter. Meal prices around here is sky high. I’ll have a few carried over, but only because it’s going to be that long to get out the door, I’m so far behind unfortunately.

Gulli · Oct 17, 2018

neilo said:
How many less tags have been bought because the lambs haven't gone yet. Like a lot of people I know, my lambs sales are 6-8 weeks behind last year, after feck all grass in the summer. Slaughter tags generally get bought when they're ready to go, or soon before. However, a lot are also feeding hard still, with little fodder available, and those lambs have to go when fit.
I did hear yesterday that a supermarket had tried to secure lambs in NZ for later on, and was unable to source any at the money they were willing to pay.

My prediction is that the current glut will go on for a while yet, as forced sellers (for forage and financial reasons) have to clear them, but they will be VERY short later on. A brave man might be tempted to keep some until after March, and he might just be rewarded handsomely if everyone else has sold. Well worth holding them for a few months if you possibly can, imho. I wish I was in the position to hold everything myself.

That was my first thoughts about the tag situation as well. Most lambs are behind by a few weeks this year

Mind you after the shower of sh!t that was lambing season this year I'm not surprised numbers are down overall

Nithsdale · Oct 17, 2018

I've normally sold 4-500 lambs by this point...

I've shifted 179 so far

Taking up grass that isn't there and needing fed. Sooner this year is done the better

andybk · Oct 17, 2018

neilo said:
How many less tags have been bought because the lambs haven't gone yet. Like a lot of people I know, my lambs sales are 6-8 weeks behind last year, after feck all grass in the summer. Slaughter tags generally get bought when they're ready to go, or soon before. However, a lot are also feeding hard still, with little fodder available, and those lambs have to go when fit.
I did hear yesterday that a supermarket had tried to secure lambs in NZ for later on, and was unable to source any at the money they were willing to pay.

My prediction is that the current glut will go on for a while yet, as forced sellers (for forage and financial reasons) have to clear them, but they will be VERY short later on. A brave man might be tempted to keep some until after March, and he might just be rewarded handsomely if everyone else has sold. Well worth holding them for a few months if you possibly can, imho. I wish I was in the position to hold everything myself.

exactly my thoughts , i am keeping fat lambs for now ,havnt gone through the last 10 months to give them away , have even pushed the later lambing flock back till april - may next year to save feed and maybe shed space for the lambs later.
i recon figures above are way out talking around , a lot dont really want to talk of what was lost last spring people that are usually quite open , ,recon numbers could easily be double or more lost . been some real horror stories of all breeds , coupled with the drought this summer ,there are some really poor stores not far away i look at most days , they are usually blooming after a good summer , apparently hit hard with haemonchus few weeks back ,

pauld · Oct 17, 2018

I need to order some more slaughter tags but will order less than normal with the new Livestock Information System being developed. I have had my fingers burnt before and have a drawer full of S tags to prove it!

hendrebc · Oct 17, 2018

pauld said:
I need to order some more slaughter tags but will order less than normal with the new Livestock Information System being developed. I have had my fingers burnt before and have a drawer full of S tags to prove it!

I had to buy some too

They made good cull tags

texelburger · Oct 17, 2018

I have 95 acres of turnips planted.Normally we graze them with our own ewes and buy in around 500/700 store lambs to fatten and sell early April.My dwt lamb buyer has urged caution over buying any lambs,this year, with the increased risk of what Brexit might bring to prices.He said to let the turnips and be safe in the knowledge of what return you will get.Thoughts ?

primmiemoo · Oct 17, 2018

Lambs here are all tagged, but there's c20% less sold so far this year than at this point last.
Some on creep outside, a few indoors already

. The rest on grass and in a holding pattern - which brings an element of fun when the lack of grass at keep is factored in.

Wooly · Oct 17, 2018

I personally think that if we get a Brexit deal, or as they are talking tonight an extra year transitional deal, that there is no reason why lamb / hogget prices shouldn't be good in the spring.

Early lambing flocks are declining, prices of lamb in the Southern hemisphere are still good, so if our European market is still open why shouldn't we be optimistic.

Better than all the gloom around sheep at present !

andybk · Oct 17, 2018

Wooly said:
I personally think that if we get a Brexit deal, or as they are talking tonight an extra year transitional deal, that there is no reason why lamb / hogget prices shouldn't be good in the spring.

Early lambing flocks are declining, prices of lamb in the Southern hemisphere are still good, so if our European market is still open why shouldn't we be optimistic.

Better than all the gloom around sheep at present !

a transition deal , will be a green light for at least another year , then we are back in the same situation next autumn , BUT i cant see many breeding hoggs will be run through next summer if £120+ is reached next april .

Nithsdale · Oct 17, 2018

andybk said:
a transition deal , will be a green light for at least another year , then we are back in the same situation next autumn , BUT i cant see many breeding hoggs will be run through next summer if £120+ is reached next april .

We all said that in the spring with the prices... but there were still plenty (maybe too many!) gimmers at the sales this autumn.

andybk · Oct 17, 2018

Nithsdale Farmer said:
We all said that in the spring with the prices... but there were still plenty (maybe too many!) gimmers at the sales this autumn.

yea i know but breeders wont get bitten twice . i will most likely have all my early lambers this year on creep from day one , which i never usually do .and half the ram hoggs will go as well , wont be much left to tup if this drags on .

Nithsdale · Oct 17, 2018

andybk said:
yea i know but breeders wont get bitten twice . i will most likely have all my early lambers this year on creep from day one , which i never usually do .and half the ram hoggs will go as well , wont be much left to tup if this drags on .

Too many ego's and pride in the gimmer job for many to simply kill them as hoggs...

Purli R · Oct 17, 2018

Nithsdale Farmer said:
Too many ego's and pride in the gimmer job for many to simply kill them as hoggs...

Whatever do you mean??

beardface · Oct 18, 2018

Wooly said:
I personally think that if we get a Brexit deal, or as they are talking tonight an extra year transitional deal, that there is no reason why lamb / hogget prices shouldn't be good in the spring.

Early lambing flocks are declining, prices of lamb in the Southern hemisphere are still good, so if our European market is still open why shouldn't we be optimistic.

Better than all the gloom around sheep at present !

I wouldn’t worry either way. France plans to employ an extra 700 border control officers and open extra phytosanitary at Calais. There’s to much money tied up in us for them not to have a no deal plan and no one in Europe wants to start a tit for tat tariff war post brexit as there too much money on either side. Personally I think she should dig her her heels in until December when it’s last chance saloon for a deal.

texas pete · Oct 18, 2018

Wooly said:
I personally think that if we get a Brexit deal, or as they are talking tonight an extra year transitional deal, that there is no reason why lamb / hogget prices shouldn't be good in the spring.

Early lambing flocks are declining, prices of lamb in the Southern hemisphere are still good, so if our European market is still open why shouldn't we be optimistic.

Better than all the gloom around sheep at present !

But doom and gloom is much more fun.

Nithsdale · Oct 19, 2018

According to the June census, Scotland's lamb numbers are 8% down on last year's census. And 3.9% down compared to the 2012-17, 5 year average.
Ewe numbers are 4% down on the year.

Reportedly 272,600 less lambs here alone.

England lamb crop is down 1.4% on last year but ewe numbers up by 1.3% (despite losses).
Irish lamb down 2% and ewe numbers down 1.1%.

UK Slaughter figures show 8% less lambs killed in the period June-September compared to last year...

(Source, The Scottish Farmer).

Who Knows How Many Lambs There Are To Be Sold This Winter?

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0 %

Up to 25%

25-50%

50-75%

75-100%

100% I’ve had enough of farming!

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