Brexit Stockpiling

Highland Mule · Dec 12, 2018

ollie989898 said:
That is nonsense. You need to research WTO rules. The UK is already a signatory. It is not bound by EU rules regarding who it may or may not trade with. I think you are getting confused about what the nature of the EU trade arrangements are.

Those contracts are signed, and stuff will be shipped, it has to go somewhere and they can't afford to stockpile it forever as other crops will need the storage and shipping in due course.

No agree trading relationships- doesn't stop the USA trading with us.

You're right, we do have a WTO membership/ signatory, but it is in the context of our EU membership and would need to be updated - our schedule of rights and obligations would not be correct, for instance. It's not going to be a smooth ride, and I would not want to rely on anything being guaranteed at this time. Crop farmers are lucky though - grain does not decay half as fast as lamb meat.

BillieBox · Dec 12, 2018

For anyone that wishes to stockpile goods, then have you thought of buying or hiring a shipping container?

Highland Mule · Dec 12, 2018

BillieBox said:
For anyone that wishes to stockpile goods, then have you thought of buying or hiring a shipping container?

Always someone to seize the opportunity

BillieBox · Dec 12, 2018

Yes we are always happy to help

solo · Dec 12, 2018

Two separate companies have told me glyphosate going up 8 to 10% in January. One of the big input companies has / is also stockpiling chemical inputs by renting additional storage, if you believe their messenger. Personally I have ordered some products and am awaiting quotes for others. Not enough to fill additional shipping containers mind.

The cost of filling one with certain chemicals would make even the bank manager wince

RushesToo · Dec 12, 2018

Highland Mule said:
So long as we have agreements in place - is there a WTO tariff for electricity, and how long would it take the UK to agree terms with the EU ?

How long before imported electricity gets cut off - I don't know, but I dam well hope someone above my pay grade does.

RushesToo · Dec 12, 2018

ollie989898 said:
I was talking to someone in the know recently about what will happen to imported commodities after March.

Basically, all this stuff is bought on forward contracts, unless the French impose a naval blockade, the stuff will be landed. Only minor amounts of commodities are from the EU directly anyway. Agchems, well they are manufactured elsewhere.

@ollie989898 Yes, but contracts exclude the cost of taxes. They are commodities, brought into the country and as the buyer will pay the taxes due - as in you, not the supplier. You WILL pay in USD or a predefined currency. I suspect there are an enormous amount of computers currently calculating the price of shorting GBP against USD. Just think that one through......

ollie989898 · Dec 12, 2018

RushesToo said:
@ollie989898 Yes, but contracts exclude the cost of taxes. They are commodities, brought into the country and as the buyer will pay the taxes due - as in you, not the supplier. You WILL pay in USD or a predefined currency. I suspect there are an enormous amount of computers currently calculating the price of shorting GBP against USD. Just think that one through......

Already contracted bud, the people involved in physical buying or selling of commodities cannot afford the risk. They will hedge currencies as well if necessary.

yellow belly · Dec 16, 2018

When we were at war with France during the napolionic wars we still traded grain with the french

The problem is some goods are imported from outside the Eu via mainland Europe
These importer will just import direct
The remain thinking people cannot work that out they just assume that the goods are imported from Europe rather than via Europe
I cannot see how sending goods via Europe from a non Eu country is as efficient when every thing can be shipped in shipping container sized lots

When or if we leave importers will adapt very quickly

ollie989898 · Dec 16, 2018

yellow belly said:
When we were at war with France during the napolionic wars we still traded grain with the french

The problem is some goods are imported from outside the Eu via mainland Europe
These importer will just import direct
The remain thinking people cannot work that out they just assume that the goods are imported from Europe rather than via Europe
I cannot see how sending goods via Europe from a non Eu country is as efficient when every thing can be shipped in shipping container sized lots

When or if we leave importers will adapt very quickly

I agree, companies will adapt fast; none of the respective companies in the EU can afford to lose the UK as a consumer marketplace, with many of them relying on the flow of components and parts in a just in time manner.

People might listen to AirBus threatening to leave the UK, they did exactly the same when the discussion about the UK adopting the Euro came along, saying they would quit if we didn't adopt it.

Move they may well do, irrespective of any Brexit news, but it won't be done in a flash, moving highly specialist carbon fibre forming equipment, skills and warehouse space? You won't train those guys in 5 minutes, carbon fibre is a cast iron bugger to work with, one shot in the autoclave and it is right or wrong. You can't hit it with a hammer to change it's shape. You junk it.

ollie989898 · Dec 16, 2018

Highland Mule said:
So long as we have agreements in place - is there a WTO tariff for electricity, and how long would it take the UK to agree terms with the EU ?

We could simply generate an additional 2 GW of capacity by burning more coal- you will see from the gridwatch website that we have plenty of capacity for this but rarely use it.

The French or Dutch could well severe the connection in spite but it would leave them short of power at times they do not have it, nor would they be able to sell us any. Good money was spent installing those undersea cables, not using it simply makes no commercial sense.

ollie989898 · Dec 16, 2018

yellow belly said:
When we were at war with France during the napolionic wars we still traded grain with the french

The problem is some goods are imported from outside the Eu via mainland Europe
These importer will just import direct
The remain thinking people cannot work that out they just assume that the goods are imported from Europe rather than via Europe
I cannot see how sending goods via Europe from a non Eu country is as efficient when every thing can be shipped in shipping container sized lots

When or if we leave importers will adapt very quickly

The majority of the commodities, soft or hard, do not come from EU countries, and if they did, there are alternative sources.

A trade dispute with Trump, Brazil or places like the Congo, or the major oil producing states would be far more damaging.

fudge · Dec 16, 2018

B'o'B said:
I’m prepared to take the punt that I’ll be using CTL at least twice next year. It’s the same price as my best purchase last year. I can’t see it being any cheaper in season.

Yes we have bought that. Agronomist reckons there’s only 2 more seasons of that product! Maybe I should have had a container full.

rob1 · Dec 16, 2018

fudge said:
Yes we have bought that. Agronomist reckons there’s only 2 more seasons of that product! Maybe I should have had a container full.

Of course the big ag chem boys will fight tooth and nail to keep a generic product that is cheap and effective rather than let it slip so we have to buy a new and very expensive one instead, me a cynic ? never

Hindsight · Dec 16, 2018

rob1 said:
Of course the big ag chem boys will fight tooth and nail to keep a generic product that is cheap and effective rather than let it slip so we have to buy a new and very expensive one instead, me a cynic ? never

That is indeed a cynical comment though I can sympathise with the sentiment. However, rather than poke at the manufacturers I suppose there is nothing to stop farmers clubbing together to put together a case to save an active. Maybe that is what farmers should use AHDB for? 10,000 farmers could put take back control and put together a fund of a few million.

rob1 · Dec 16, 2018

Hindsight said:
That is indeed a cynical comment though I can sympathise with the sentiment. However, rather than poke at the manufacturers I suppose there is nothing to stop farmers clubbing together to put together a case to save an active. Maybe that is what farmers should use AHDB for? 10,000 farmers could put take back control and put together a fund of a few million.

Yes they could do that
At least we will be out of the eu then and hopefully wont have the political interference in a science debate

Hindsight · Dec 16, 2018

rob1 said:
Yes they could do that
At least we will be out of the eu then and hopefully wont have the political interference in a science debate

well you have more faith than me in the political interference once out of EU. I hope you are correct.

rob1 · Dec 16, 2018

Hindsight said:
well you have more faith than me in the political interference once out of EU. I hope you are correct.

Im not saying it will end but we dont have any influence over other countries votes on these matters now so it should be easier to get heard

Hindsight · Dec 16, 2018

rob1 said:
Im not saying it will end but we dont have any influence over other countries votes on these matters now so it should be easier to get heard

Maybe. I am more circumspect about the future. I anticipate we shall have to track EU rules and requirements. I have watched Mr Gove approach to neonic seed treatments on sugar beet with interest. UK has banned the use. Most other EU countries that grow sugar beet have granted emergency approvals for 2019. I listen to Gove - he on many occasions has pontificated about a post Brexit UK leading the world on environmental standards. He has beggar all idea but does not care. I hope to be proven wrong. Anyway we shall see how it goes.

Pieces_of_Eight · Dec 17, 2018

yellow belly said:
When we were at war with France during the napolionic wars we still traded grain with the french

Did the price/cost of grain go up?

Brexit Stockpiling

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Up to 25%

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100% I’ve had enough of farming!

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