Honda to stun ministers with closure of Swindon factory

H200GT · Feb 20, 2019

Cowabunga said:
In a democracy, we have regular elections and people change their mind and change policies. Even if every single person that voted previously for and against brexit voted exactly the same again, if we had the vote again tomorrow the remain side would win. That's an undisputed fact. That's how close the vote was.

I'm sure a lot of people are puzzled by the above fact and how it works. But perhaps everyone knows and acknowledges it. It is because of the number of old people that have died and the number of new young people that have become eligible to vote and the fact that the oldies voted 2:1 to leave and that young people vote 7:1 to stay within the EU. But I'm sure you were aware of all that anyhow.

I don't dispute the fact above at all in the first paragraph, and you may be right in the fact that if we voted again tomorrow, remain may well win.

But that's the thing with votes, no one can accurately predict outcomes. I remember going to bed the evening of the referendum where it was being reported by all news channels that it was almost a certainty remain would win. The next morning proved rather different, with the result going against almost every opinion poll / exit poll / expert analysis at the time.

The country is clearly divided on the matter, but you cannot simply ask the question time and time again until you get the answer you want. Had remain won with a similar slim majority, there would be no chance that brexiteers would in the same position as Remainers are today - we would have been told to get on with it, in means in etc. Its only due to the fact the majority of MPs are Remainers we are even in this situation today, if the majority were brexiteers, we would have sorted this out long time ago one way or another.

Martin Holden · Feb 20, 2019

Cowabunga said:
It's only a collection of sheds. Plant and equipment will be stripped out by Honda. The presses and alloy foundry will probably be exported to another low-cost country, as will all the valuable robots and everything.

Sheds still have some value for something! Sure the tolling will go back to Japan I guess

Cowabunga · Feb 20, 2019

H200GT said:
I don't dispute the fact above at all in the first paragraph, and you may be right in the fact that if we voted again tomorrow, remain may well win.

But that's the thing with votes, no one can accurately predict outcomes. I remember going to bed the evening of the referendum where it was being reported by all news channels that it was almost a certainty remain would win. The next morning proved rather different, with the result going against almost every opinion poll / exit poll / expert analysis at the time.

The country is clearly divided on the matter, but you cannot simply ask the question time and time again until you get the answer you want. Had remain won with a similar slim majority, there would be no chance that brexiteers would in the same position as Remainers are today - we would have been told to get on with it, in means in etc. Its only due to the fact the majority of MPs are Remainers we are even in this situation today, if the majority were brexiteers, we would have sorted this out long time ago one way or another.

Our politicians have a responsibility do run this country. That includes absolutely avoiding the ruin of the country and the impoverishment of or disadvantaging their population. That must include doing everything possible to protect the population from their own ignorance. I say that advisedly, because not more than a fraction of the voting public were aware two years ago of either the consequences of their vote or indeed, in most cases, what they were actually voting for. Even the politicians of all sides cannot agree on that.

Therefore now that the implications are far more clear, it is incumbent on any responsible government to give the voting population another say on what happens in light of current knowledge and before we are dumped over an abyss from which there is no return.
If there is still a pro brexit vote, then that should certainly be followed through. At least then nobody could claim not to be aware of the implications on their own families and the country as a whole and even on the unity of the group of countries known collectively at the moment as the UK.

Cowabunga · Feb 20, 2019

Martin Holden said:
Sheds still have some value for something! Sure the tolling will go back to Japan I guess

Sheds are a liability unless you have businesses that want to utilise them. That requires business confidence and a competitive economic environment, including free trade.
I suppose they could start a farmer's market in there of course.

Martin Holden · Feb 20, 2019

It’s a global thing, not just Europe and the UK. More will follow for sure

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47300317

H200GT · Feb 20, 2019

Cowabunga said:
Our politicians have a responsibility do run this country. That includes absolutely avoiding the ruin of the country and the impoverishment of or disadvantaging their population. That must include doing everything possible to protect the population from their own ignorance. I say that advisedly, because not more than a fraction of the voting public were aware two years ago of either the consequences of their vote or indeed, in most cases, what they were actually voting for. Even the politicians of all sides cannot agree on that.

Therefore now that the implications are far more clear, it is incumbent on any responsible government to give the voting population another say on what happens in light of current knowledge and before we are dumped over an abyss from which there is no return.
If there is still a pro brexit vote, then that should certainly be followed through. At least then nobody could claim not to be aware of the implications on their own families and the country as a whole and even on the unity of the group of countries known collectively at the moment as the UK.

To be honest, it there was another vote tomorrow, I don't think we would know what the implications would be of ether side winning, its a crystal ball type question, no one can predict the future.

People voted with the best facts / knowledge at their disposal at the time. If we voted again tomorrow and leave won, by the time it would be time to leave in 2 years time the whole landscape would be different again, same position as we are in today.

Potentially we will be leaving the EU in a months time, and facts are few and far between as we stand!!

The UK will be entering uncharted territory, and no one for certain can predict the outcome

H200GT · Feb 20, 2019

Martin Holden said:
It’s a global thing, not just Europe and the UK. More will follow for sure

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47300317

Totally agree, car industry is in global crisis, and brexit is not responsible.

Cowabunga · Feb 20, 2019

H200GT said:
To be honest, it there was another vote tomorrow, I don't think we would know what the implications would be of ether side winning, its a crystal ball type question, no one can predict the future.

People voted with the best facts / knowledge at their disposal at the time. If we voted again tomorrow and leave won, by the time it would be time to leave in 2 years time the whole landscape would be different again, same position as we are in today.

Potentially we will be leaving the EU in a months time, and facts are few and far between as we stand!!

The UK will be entering uncharted territory, and no one for certain can predict the outcome

If you don't know by now you never will and should abstain. The only saving grace is that at least the politicians are waking up to the implications with even Gove and many in Labour now about to support Mrs May, because the alternative is too dire to contemplate. Ireland and the placement of its border is now the only, but very serious issue to resolve. That this leaves us effectively in the EU for all intents and purposes but without a seat on the board will be conveniently ignored for the common good.

H200GT · Feb 20, 2019

H200GT said:
To be honest, it there was another vote tomorrow, I don't think we would know what the implications would be of ether side winning, its a crystal ball type question, no one can predict the future.

People voted with the best facts / knowledge at their disposal at the time. If we voted again tomorrow and leave won, by the time it would be time to leave in 2 years time the whole landscape would be different again, same position as we are in today.

Potencially we will be leaving the EU in a months time, and facts are few and far between as we stand!!

The UK will be entering uncharted territory, and no one for certain can predict the outcome

Cowabunga said:
If you don't know by now you never will and should abstain. The only saving grace is that at least the politicians are waking up to the implications with even Gove and many in Labour now about to support Mrs May, because the alternative is too dire to contemplate. Ireland and the placement of its border is now the only, but very serious issue to resolve. That this leaves us effectively in the EU for all intents and purposes but without a seat on the board will be conveniently ignored for the common good.

Can you accurately tell me what the UK situation will be like in:

A) 6 months if we have a no deal brexit?
B) 6 months if we have a deal brexit?
C) 6 months if we extend article 50?
D) 6 months if there is a people's vote announced?

I would like to know.

Ashtree · Feb 20, 2019

H200GT said:
Can you accurately tell me what the UK situation will be like in:

A) 6 months if we have a no deal brexit?
B) 6 months if we have a deal brexit?
C) 6 months if we extend article 50?
D) 6 months if there is a people's vote announced?

I would like to know.

A) Sterling will crash. Large global cross border companies will begin to put plans already drawn up into action, by downsizing in UK. EU staff in NHS will stream out causing untold hardship in the system. Cost of living will rise. Unemployment will increase. Property prices will fall. Negative equity will hit the banks balance sheets.
On the plus side trade with the Faroe Islands will increase by about £36.

In summary A will not happen and none of the above disasters will arise, as thankfully there is a consensus in parliment against a no deal. Enough adults are aware that the DUP and ERG are a clear and present danger to the entire country. Somebody will lock them in the broom cupboard until this is over.

H200GT · Feb 20, 2019

Ashtree said:
A) Sterling will crash. Large global cross border companies will begin to put plans already drawn up into action, by downsizing in UK. EU staff in NHS will stream out causing untold hardship in the system. Cost of living will rise. Unemployment will increase. Property prices will fall. Negative equity will hit the banks balance sheets.
On the plus side trade with the Faroe Islands will increase by about £36.

In summary A will not happen and none of the above disasters will arise, as thankfully there is a consensus in parliment against a no deal. Enough adults are aware that the DUP and ERG are a clear and present danger to the entire country. Somebody will lock them in the broom cupboard until this is over.

And this underlines my point, the above is a projection, an opinion, not fact.

Truth is know one knows for sure as far too many factors are in play

Yacker · Feb 20, 2019

I think the only reasonable projection is decline, this is not all to do with Brexit by any stretch but we have to accept that Brexit will cause some damage, others will use it as an excuse to move jobs/investment from the UK. Brecit gas provided all Japanese manufacturing in the UK with an excuse to ship out without mentioning the Japanese/UK trade deal.

The question is not will we be poorer but by how much and then how long to recover (if thats possible)

Ashtree · Feb 20, 2019

H200GT said:
And this underlines my point, the above is a projection, an opinion, not fact.

Truth is know one knows for sure as far too many factors are in play

IF Brexit is a crash out, you can be pretty damned sure, most of the above WILL happen!!!!!!
Only those in denial can say otherwise.
Money invested in UK today, has a free market of 500 million people right on its door step.
Shutting that off overnight by definition means massive disruption. That’s not conjecture. That is glaringly obvious.
It’s glaringly obvious to JRM. He has done already what many more businesses have prepared to to, but haven’t yet done. He has set his investment vehicles up in Dublin, to keep them in the single market.

Cowabunga · Feb 20, 2019

H200GT said:
Can you accurately tell me what the UK situation will be like in:

A) 6 months if we have a no deal brexit?
B) 6 months if we have a deal brexit?
C) 6 months if we extend article 50?
D) 6 months if there is a people's vote announced?

I would like to know.

With a hard brexit the economy will not know what hit it. The politicians are now realising this and i dont believe that they collectively will allow such a scenario. Even if you cant see it, responsible politicians are now having to face reality.

Cowabunga · Feb 20, 2019

Ashtree said:
A) Sterling will crash. Large global cross border companies will begin to put plans already drawn up into action, by downsizing in UK. EU staff in NHS will stream out causing untold hardship in the system. Cost of living will rise. Unemployment will increase. Property prices will fall. Negative equity will hit the banks balance sheets.
On the plus side trade with the Faroe Islands will increase by about £36.

In summary A will not happen and none of the above disasters will arise, as thankfully there is a consensus in parliment against a no deal. Enough adults are aware that the DUP and ERG are a clear and present danger to the entire country. Somebody will lock them in the broom cupboard until this is over.

Spot on

Cowabunga · Feb 20, 2019

Here is a simple[ish] explanation of why, using game theory, that even though the vast majority of MP's are dead against it, a hard and damaging Brexit remains a very real possibility.

H200GT · Feb 20, 2019

Yacker said:
I think the only reasonable projection is decline, this is not all to do with Brexit by any stretch but we have to accept that Brexit will cause some damage, others will use it as an excuse to move jobs/investment from the UK. Brecit gas provided all Japanese manufacturing in the UK with an excuse to ship out without mentioning the Japanese/UK trade deal.

The question is not will we be poorer but by how much and then how long to recover (if thats possible)

In my opinion, I agree that given the lack of planning, disruption and short term pain is probably inevitable should we have a hard brexit. I think a lot of it could have been avoided had we planned for such an eventuality, but here we are at the 11th hour with still no clear plan of what's going to happen in little under 40 days. You would not run a business this way, let alone one of the largest economy's of the world. However remainers must take some responsibility for this as they effectively blocked the government from spending on contingency plans, very silly given the high stakes at play.

I cant see May getting an amended deal from the EU, and in turn I cant see her getting her existing deal through parliament at the second time of asking. We have been told extension to article 50 will not be granted by the EU unless there is a fundamental change in UK politics, such as a second referendum, or general election, both of which seem equally unlikely at present. This leaves the UK with only 1 option from what I see, hard brexit.

From there I see both the EU and UK slipping into recession (I think this is inevitable anyhow regardless of brexit) but I can see the UK recovering much faster, being an independent nation. Like I said in an earlier post, the EU economy as a whole is in far grater difficulty, huge youth unemployment, migration crisis, and the rise of far left and right political groups will cause the EU a massive challenge in the years to come. France has seen serious riots since November, with no sign this is being quashed or being scaled down. If the EU slips into recession, I think we could see widespread unrest all over Europe.

Farmer1001 · Feb 20, 2019

@H200GT you raise some valid points but these are completely wiped out by the things you (and many others) seem to rely upon, such as "well it could have been shite if we voted remain" or "well it will be much worse for the EU" and "well remainers must take some responsibility for this Brexit shambles". Firstly it's irrelevant and pointless to compare with what could have been, that's the past and we voted out so the only consideration is how bad will it be and for how long under Brexit, because until we start then we won't open our eyes to the problems we face (not could of faced), also rejoicing in the EUs struggles simply hides the mess we are in, indeed we better hope that the EU thrives as (sorry Brexiteers) but our bright new future will be deeply influenced by our biggest customer, and thirdly remainers don't need to take any responsibility - this chaos was always going to happen because the country put its faith in politicians who failed us in the EU, to then deliver the most complicated issue most of us will ever face. I'm afraid this is Brexit, this is the Brexit you voted for, you simply didn't know it.

bobk · Feb 20, 2019

Cowabunga said:
Here is a simple[ish] explanation of why, using game theory, that even though the vast majority of MP's are dead against it, a hard and damaging Brexit remains a very real possibility.

But , there has to be a decision or a deal , neither is achievable imo ... so , let's run it down to the 29th and see what happens , I'm positive the agro will be on the continental side firstly ,
Just like your phone contract , the providers are much keener when your free to source from elsewhere .
It's simplistic but what else have we got .

H200GT · Feb 20, 2019

runny egg said:
@H200GT you raise some valid points but these are completely wiped out by the things you (and many others) seem to rely upon, such as "well it could have been shite if we voted remain" or "well it will be much worse for the EU" and "well remainers must take some responsibility for this Brexit shambles". Firstly it's irrelevant and pointless to compare with what could have been, that's the past and we voted out so the only consideration is how bad will it be and for how long under Brexit, because until we start then we won't open our eyes to the problems we face (not could of faced), also rejoicing in the EUs struggles simply hides the mess we are in, indeed we better hope that the EU thrives as (sorry Brexiteers) but our bright new future will be deeply influenced by our biggest customer, and thirdly remainers don't need to take any responsibility - this chaos was always going to happen because the country put its faith in politicians who failed us in the EU, to then deliver the most complicated issue most of us will ever face. I'm afraid this is Brexit, this is the Brexit you voted for, you simply didn't know it.

Your right, just as i pointed out earlier, its all opinion at the moment, know one knows what will or would have been or will be.

Also i dont want to see the EU struggling going forward, I totally agree it wont be in our interest, its just my opinion that this will happen as there are real issues in the EU at present simmering under the surface. Its also my opinion that a no deal brexit will not be as damaging as others think it will be.

Most people thought Trump would be a disaster for the USA, but like him or loathe him, the USA seem to be doing pretty well at the moment.

Honda to stun ministers with closure of Swindon factory

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