A VERY SERIOUS QUESTION FOR ALL WEATHER FORECASTING PROVIDERS??

Wombat said:

2018 was as wet as 2017 here it just came all at the beginning and ends of the year

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Better to hang in and sell it in a wetter year when it looks more productive...

MX7 said:

I am interested know why no weather forecast providers have replied to this thread

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Lets face it, they don't know whats going to happen next week, let alone months in advance. Think about it - when was the last time that a forecaster correctly predicted a heatwave period, or a period of excessive rain or a massive cold and snowy period, months in advance? It never happens. They can see about 7-10 days out now, so if something out of the ordinary is coming they do get a heads up a bit earlier than they used to, but beyond that the models just smooth everything out so no exceptional weather is ever predicted long term.

Tell a lie, there is one chap that does predict catastrophe at longer monthly and seasonal ranges, and is occasionally right, Peirs Corbyn (yes Jeremy's brother), and he uses an entirely different prediction method to the rest, involving solar cycles and lunar phases and God knows what else. And is often completely wrong as well. But has pulled off some impressive wins as well. Would be interesting to know if he predicted last year's hot summer.

Michael Fish (what wind ?) being interviewed about the Great Storm, said in 1987 the Met Office could only give an accurate forecast for 1 day ahead (which couldn't even match the accuracy produced by meteorologists for the D Day landings in WW2 without computers or satellite technology). However the Met Office had moved on now and in the 21st century could manage a three day accurate forecast.