BBC online forecasts

Princess Pooper · Jun 7, 2019

Does anyone else look at these? The static (not video) ones that give an hour by hour breakdown for up to a fortnight ahead? They are SO misleading. I am looking at Fri 14th as I have a day out that day. The 'headline' is light rain with a light breeze. When I look at the detail, the only 'raindrops' are one drop at 4pm, then one drop and sunshine for 5 and 6pm. At the bottom, the probability.... maximum 18%!

I think this is why so many of us in low rainfall areas get pee'd off - when you read the detail, their 'light rain' summary for the day is two spots in the wind (that probably won't arrive anyway). (I don't actually WANT it to rain that day, just every other day apart from when we are hay and silage making)...

Barmyfarmer · Jun 7, 2019

I use the bcc weather app and think you have to ignore the headline rain image and have a look at the hour by hour, and if it's above 50% chance of rain you might get a bit, if it's below 50% you probably won't!

An Gof · Jun 7, 2019

I use 4 or 5 different forecasts and then pick the one I want

How can they all be so different?

jondear · Jun 7, 2019

Well we're all going to drown this afternoon by all the weather warnings being issued today !But it's hardly raining so far .I just want a decent soak !

Beames · Jun 7, 2019

I checked the bbc weather last night and it gave rain today then dry till Tuesday. Thought great I’ll chop some grass down Saturday and be all done by the rain Wednesday. Looked this morning after seeing this thread and all changed. Rain every day except for Sunday. They seem to change their mind by the hour!!!

7610 super q · Jun 7, 2019

Quite why they pretend they can forecast 14 days ahead is a mystery. I've found 3 days maximum before accuracy goes to pot. I'm fairly sure we had an accurate 7 day forecast way back in the 1970's ? I dunno.

Gong Farmer · Jun 7, 2019

Princess Pooper said:
I am looking at Fri 14th as I have a day out that day. The 'headline' is light rain with a light breeze. When I look at the detail, the only 'raindrops' are one drop at 4pm, then one drop and sunshine for 5 and 6pm. At the bottom, the probability.... maximum 18%!

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You expect any forecast to be accurate that far ahead?

As said before, if you look at the static forecast on the BBC site then refresh, it changes every time you do so.
Still fairly accurate for up to 12 hours ahead but I wouldn't trust it for anything else.

traineefarmer · Jun 7, 2019

The good and bad thing about BBC weather app is that it is live and gives continual updates. A rain forecast at 7am can be gone by 9am.

ste · Jun 7, 2019

7610 super q said:
Quite why they pretend they can forecast 14 days ahead is a mystery. I've found 3 days maximum before accuracy goes to pot. I'm fairly sure we had an accurate 7 day forecast way back in the 1970's ? I dunno.

I've not found a accurate one yet. Seems the more technology they have the worse they get!!

We would have got most of the 1st cut done on my mates farm by now had they been accurate, but held off cutting as they forecast rain which never came/came but not as bad as predicted

7610 super q · Jun 7, 2019

5 years of trying to make hay relying on the BBC forecast took it's toll.
No hay this year, but needed some fairly major roof repairs. Roofers said they could fit me in the following Thurs / Friday. Gave them the OK, although heavy rain was forecast for the Thursday. This then changed to rain on Wednesday, dry Thurs / Fri. Then dry Wed / Thurs, wet Friday. Then back to rain Wednesday, dry Thurs / Fri........Luckily only a bit of mist / fog whilst they did the work. Phew. But the forecast was as much use as a dead kipper.

Two Tone · Jun 7, 2019

I tend to use the BBC as the one I look at first. It can be annoying when it changes its mind as to what it predicts in a few days time.

Then I use Accuweather which on the whole is a bit more accurate but not as well presented.

In catchy times when the weather is very important, such as now for hay making, I always look at the Jet Stream forecast. Which to my mind will give the most accurate idea of what is going on.
https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/jetstream
Looks rather messy and not much settled weather for the time being.
If the yellow and red bits are north of the U.K. the weather will be settled. Anything else and keep the mower in the shed.

farmerm · Jun 7, 2019

The problem with forecasts during showery conditions is not the accuracy but the resolution at which it is accurate.. An area 5 miles from me had a downpour yesterday we only had a bit of drizzle, the forecast for heavy showers was spot on at 10mile resolution but wildly inaccurate at the resolution of an individual farm.

Paddington · Jun 7, 2019

Should be hours of heavy rain now, that's why I'm sat here but it's bone dry outside. Watching the D Day remembrance this week reminded me of Simon Keeling's article about weather forecasting for the D Day landing. Without radar or satellite coverage and relying on observers, they made an accurate 3 day forecast which the Met Office can only hope to manage now.

Spear · Jun 7, 2019

I find the “iOS” weather app to be pessimistic and the bbc app too optimistic.
Regularly see on bbc forecast a “bright sunny day “ only to find on hourly break down just 1 hour of sun and rain for rest of day.
Forecast accuracy is so bad unless it’s settled weather that it rarely gets it right as to what’s actually happening at the time [emoji35]. That’s for most forecasts I look at.

fudge · Jun 7, 2019

In terms of planning why not just look out the window? That seems to work along with a 24 hour forecast. I find those the most useful.

Skylark · Jun 7, 2019

You think the BBC is bad, just be glad you don't rely on the inbuilt misery inducer that lives inside the Muddy Boot Greenlight Grower Management program. Screenshots below but it's always raining in Greenlight, not sure there has been a spray day on there in the entire time we've been using it

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So; weather for here at 11am on Friday, firstly from Greenlight. A summary seems to be that the world is about to end...

BBC aren't quite as "we're dooomed" as Greenlight, they reckon it'll be wet but not the end of the world

Meanwhile the Met Office are feeling pretty optimistic about the whole thing for the week ahead..

So; it's either going to sink us despite us living on a hill, be wet for most of the week or actually be quite pleasant for quite a bit of the next 7 days. :scratchhead:

Princess Pooper · Jun 7, 2019

An Gof said:
I use 4 or 5 different forecasts and then pick the one I want How can they all be so different?

I do generally look at 3 and take a view from the collective.

Princess Pooper · Jun 7, 2019

Fromebridge said:
You expect any forecast to be accurate that far ahead?

As said before, if you look at the static forecast on the BBC site then refresh, it changes every time you do so.
Still fairly accurate for up to 12 hours ahead but I wouldn't trust it for anything else.

IT's not actually the accuracy I am querying, it's the way it is presented. This morning it had 18 degrees C as the 'headline' for June 14th but the maximum temperature for any of the hourly slots was 17 degrees!!! Sure, it's now been update and the hourly forecasts and temps are now a more accurate reflection of the headline but still no more than 18% likelihood of rain, despite the 'light rain' headline.

Paddington · Jun 7, 2019

In the old days you could always blame the Met. Office for providing the forecast, now Meteo do it, though the raw data still comes from the Met. Office.

kmo · Jun 7, 2019

Not that sure about the accuracy BBC weather site for my area, so use several and guesstimate a bit.

https://www.xcweather.co.uk (One I use most)

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk

http://www.rain-alarm.com

BBC online forecasts

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