ROI politics - will Varadkar win the election?

Danllan · Feb 9, 2020

Boohoo said:
Exit poll suggests a three way tie for first preference votes

Irish general election: Exit poll predicts 'tie' between three main parties

Exit poll suggests little difference between Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin.

www.bbc.co.uk

I'll admit that it has come as quite a surprise to me that SF have got anything like as much support as they seem to. So far, in the vast majority of people from the ROI, I've only come across contempt for the 'Shinners', but things change. That being so, and although with a very different agenda, it looks as if SF could have a similar effect upon politics in the ROI to that which UKIP did over here; meaning that they will force the 'mainstream' parties to adopt at least some of their policies. That could be a win / lose situation for SF, the analogy continuing with the fact that the UKIP / the BP are now, having won their big prize, utterly irrelevant.

UKIP managed to achieve change here with zero success in GEs and major successes in EP elections, but it took time, not surprising considering their aims. If SF support can see a significant number of TDs from this GE, we could - and probably will - see something interesting happen very quickly. The question is... what?

It isn't in the gift of the Dail to order a 'border poll' and, anyway, it would almost certainly go the wrong way for SF if there were one any time soon; more so later, if Brexit proves to be anything other than a disaster and NI doesn't find itself shafted by Boris and Co.. Major social reform is SF's other big thing, but money is now tight in the ROI and getting tighter, something forecast to continue for a while yet.

So again, what will FF and FG do to try and prevent SF gaining in popularity? :scratchhead:

JimAndy · Feb 9, 2020

Danllan said:
It isn't in the gift of the Dail to order a 'border poll' and, anyway, it would almost certainly go the wrong way for SF if there were one any time soon; more so later, if Brexit proves to be anything other than a disaster and NI doesn't find itself shafted by Boris and Co.. Major social reform is SF's other big thing, but money is now tight in the ROI and getting tighter, something forecast to continue for a while yet.

it may not be in the "gift" of the dail to order a border poll, but if SF can get enough seats they can block any EU/UK trade deal, as the Trade deal will have to be passed by each of the 27 member countries parliaments and it only take one country to block it. so given that Boris has shown that he more than willing to sell out who ever he needs to so that he can look well. there may be a bit of back door diplomacy, SF won't block a deal. Boris call's a border poll

br jones · Feb 9, 2020

JimAndy said:
it may not be in the "gift" of the dail to order a border poll, but if SF can get enough seats they can block any EU/UK trade deal, as the Trade deal will have to be passed by each of the 27 member countries parliaments and it only take one country to block it. so given that Boris has shown that he more than willing to sell out who ever he needs to so that he can look well. there may be a bit of back door diplomacy, SF won't block a deal. Boris call's a border poll

Thats if boris wants a deal ? A mighty big if

corkman2013 · Feb 9, 2020

Danllan said:
I'll admit that it has come as quite a surprise to me that SF have got anything like as much support as they seem to. So far, in the vast majority of people from the ROI, I've only come across contempt for the 'Shinners', but things change. That being so, and although with a very different agenda, it looks as if SF could have a similar effect upon politics in the ROI to that which UKIP did over here; meaning that they will force the 'mainstream' parties to adopt at least some of their policies. That could be a win / lose situation for SF, the analogy continuing with the fact that the UKIP / the BP are now, having won their big prize, utterly irrelevant.

UKIP managed to achieve change here with zero success in GEs and major successes in EP elections, but it took time, not surprising considering their aims. If SF support can see a significant number of TDs from this GE, we could - and probably will - see something interesting happen very quickly. The question is... what?

It isn't in the gift of the Dail to order a 'border poll' and, anyway, it would almost certainly go the wrong way for SF if there were one any time soon; more so later, if Brexit proves to be anything other than a disaster and NI doesn't find itself shafted by Boris and Co.. Major social reform is SF's other big thing, but money is now tight in the ROI and getting tighter, something forecast to continue for a while yet.

So again, what will FF and FG do to try and prevent SF gaining in popularity?

I don't know.
Apart from the North. There economic policy is not great in my opinion

Cowcorn · Feb 9, 2020

Sinn fein achieved success by promising the Sun, Moon , and Stars to the gullible the forgot to add that the fools gold the were peddling was worthless . Its a worry that young people are prepared to vote for a party that has such a sinister past. At least Leo or any of the other party leaders arent going to send thugs around to beat you up if you disagree with him.

Hindsight · Feb 9, 2020

JimAndy said:
it may not be in the "gift" of the dail to order a border poll, but if SF can get enough seats they can block any EU/UK trade deal, as the Trade deal will have to be passed by each of the 27 member countries parliaments and it only take one country to block it. so given that Boris has shown that he more than willing to sell out who ever he needs to so that he can look well. there may be a bit of back door diplomacy, SF won't block a deal. Boris call's a border poll

That was the inference in BBC radio reporting earlier last week, when it was becoming apparent Sinn Fein might do well, and wished they had stood in more seats. Joys. As Macmillan said 'events dear boy, events'

Hindsight · Feb 9, 2020

br jones said:
Thats if boris wants a deal ? A mighty big if

Yes, the ERG back to haunt again, like ghosts of Xmas past. In October it was thought Non Deal could slip through a an error by politicians. Probably same again. Sad days.

Danllan · Feb 9, 2020

Cowcorn said:
Sinn fein achieved success by promising the Sun, Moon , and Stars to the gullible the forgot to add that the fools gold the were peddling was worthless . Its a worry that young people are prepared to vote for a party that has such a sinister past. At least Leo or any of the other party leaders arent going to send thugs around to beat you up if you disagree with him.

It is a worry, but less so that the young and gullible are voting for them than if the older and wiser were to.

JimAndy said:
it may not be in the "gift" of the dail to order a border poll, but if SF can get enough seats they can block any EU/UK trade deal, as the Trade deal will have to be passed by each of the 27 member countries parliaments and it only take one country to block it. so given that Boris has shown that he more than willing to sell out who ever he needs to so that he can look well. there may be a bit of back door diplomacy, SF won't block a deal. Boris call's a border poll

It is legally possible, just possible, for the EU to approve any deal by a simple or a qualified majority being in favour of it. I don't know how politically desirable that might be, but I can't see too many tears being shed for anything that 'offends' the likes of SF in the ROI or, for example, the AFD in Germany.

Edited to add: In a unanimous vote, an abstention doesn't scupper things.

JimAndy · Feb 9, 2020

br jones said:
Thats if boris wants a deal ? A mighty big if

why would Boris not want a deal, what are his choices, do some sort of deal with the EU of go to WTO rules, with WTO tariffs. Tariffs that would kill UK exports, and make Voters very unhappy when the price of everything goes up. Or Boris could leave under WTO and set very low/zero tariffs, trouble with that is that under the WTO most-favored clause. he have to drop the tariffs for all WTO members, and why would an nation want/need a trade deal when the get to export to the UK with near zero tariffs

Danllan said:
It is legally possible, just possible, for the EU to approve any deal by a simple or a qualified majority being in favour of it. I don't know how politically desirable that might be, but I can't see too many tears being shed for anything that 'offends' the likes of SF in the ROI or, for example, the AFD in Germany.

as i understand it, because this deal would be a mixed agreement it still need to be ratify by all 27 countries according to their national constitutional provisions, hence why the like of Spain is trying to block gibraltar from being covered by any deal. and I'm sure as time goes on we have some pathetic eastern block member with a axe to grind over something the UK did 100's of years ago looking there pound of flesh

Danllan · Feb 9, 2020

JimAndy said:
...as i understand it, because this deal would be a mixed agreement it still need to be ratify by all 27 countries according to their national constitutional provisions, hence why the like of Spain is trying to block gibraltar from being covered by any deal. and I'm sure as time goes on we have some pathetic eastern block member with a axe to grind over something the UK did 100's of years ago looking there pound of flesh

True as far as it goes, but... it's the EC that decides whether or not an agreement is mixed and their decision is not open to challenge via the ECJ or EP. Only the Council of Ministers can overturn it and that by a simple majority. There are a few other mechanisms that can make things difficult / simple in the process as a whole too, it will be interesting to see what is brought in to play.

Farmer1001 · Feb 9, 2020

JimAndy said:
Boris could leave under WTO and set very low/zero tariffs, trouble with that is that under the WTO most-favored clause. he have to drop the tariffs for all WTO members, and why would an nation want/need a trade deal when the get to export to the UK with near zero tariffs

Based on the tariffs schedule published in March 19 and remains the fallback “no deal” scenario, then all you have stated above is correct. Canada have already confirmed this scenario is as good a deal as they could negotiate. Interesting times ahead for sure.

br jones · Feb 10, 2020

So the party with the most votes doesnt win ?

Danllan · Feb 10, 2020

br jones said:
So the party with the most votes doesnt win ?

You're surely not looking askance at Irish democracy, are you...?

jonny · Feb 10, 2020

br jones said:
So the party with the most votes doesnt win ?

Not if you don’t have enough candidates to use them Some of these got 2 quotas

caveman · Feb 10, 2020

I understand SF stood down a lot of candidates so as to not split their vote?

JimAndy · Feb 10, 2020

br jones said:
So the party with the most votes doesnt win ?

no the party(s) that get to 80 seat's form the government, unlike the UK the Irish believe that their government should represent the views of the people

Danllan · Feb 10, 2020

JimAndy said:
no the party(s) that get to 80 seat's form the government, unlike the UK the Irish believe that their government should represent the views of the people

Weird, we have the odd belief that referenda should be respected.

JimAndy · Feb 10, 2020

Danllan said:
Weird, we have the odd belief that referenda should be respected.

and yet it was for the WHOLE of the UK that voted to leave the EU, and yet thanks to the Boris Betrayal bill only GB is leaving, with N.I being annexed by the EU/RoI

The Agrarian · Feb 10, 2020

Voters in the Republic ‘should be marched past IRA’s bodies’ says veteran Irish commentator

A leading Irish commentator has said that the citizens in the Republic need to be “marched past the bodies” of IRA terror.

www.newsletter.co.uk

Derrick Hughes · Feb 10, 2020

Sounds like a,stuppid way too govern a country . Imagine if we had a coalition government. What a disaster. Sorry Dont mean too be rude

ROI politics - will Varadkar win the election?

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100% I’ve had enough of farming!

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