Everything’s devalued by 30%

thorpe · Apr 24, 2020

Grassman said:
Some of the media are just looking for ways of tripping up the government minister as their downfall makes news. They continually go on asking stupid questions that any sensible journalist knows can't be answered yet. Piers Morgan, Laura kuensberg, Robert peston have all gone down in my estimations drastically.
And as for kier starmer. I thought he was being quite sensible with his approach to the government and how they were dealing with it. Then he says testing was too slow, lock down was too slow and soft and ppe supply was the fault of the government.
Funny how he didn't bring these things up a few weeks ago. Everyone is an expert with a dose of hindsight

how would jeremy handled this if he had been in charge?

thorpe · Apr 24, 2020

upnortheast said:
A brighter thought, i wonder if there will be a huge retail spending spree later this year.
Lots of people who earned (say ) £ 1000 a month & used to spent £1010 a month.
They have found that with no meals out, nights in the pub, spending money at the shopping centre on crap. they can actualy live on £600 a month.
Result in 6 months time they will be in a much better financial situation

are you having a laugh they will spend all theve saved in aweek!

Honest john · Apr 24, 2020

Frank-the-Wool said:
I have one that went bust in the Depression around 1929. It is a great area for wintering cattle as it is dry and the bunkers give shelter. Another Golf course went bust near here about 5 years ago and is now just a large grazing area.

House values will fall but maybe not by 30% unless interest rates really do start to rise quickly. Banks need to lend money to earn interest but to be lenders they need to have the cash reserves to start with. Unfortunately the cash reserves they have are disappearing like melting snow as people with cash will be investing in areas that give a better return.
So to get cash in they will need to increase interest rates to depositors so as to then be able to lend money for business and mortgages. They need a wide spread to earn money. There are a few of us that remember interest rates at 17% plus and rampant inflation.
It can be fun to go on this ride but it is not for the faint hearted as when you are borrowing money at 20% you can go bust very quickly indeed!

thorpe said:
how would jeremy handled this if he had been in charge?

Abbott would be getting her Trillions mixed up with Billions & Millions.
Furlong would be 100% of pay.

ollie989898 · Apr 24, 2020

Honest john said:
Abbott would be getting her Trillions mixed up with Billions & Millions.
Furlong would be 100% of pay.

Furlong would be 115% of pay, 'just to make sure'.

ollie989898 · Apr 24, 2020

thorpe said:
how would jeremy handled this if he had been in charge?

Nationalise the entire economy probably.

livestock 1 · Apr 24, 2020

warksfarmer said:
This situation won’t ever end until there’s both a vaccine and antidote. Even then getting things moving again will take years.

Unreported yet the property market is knackered. No buyers. No credit and as yet nothing reported.

Car trade ruined pretty much overnight. Lease companies can’t pick up end of lease vehicles because there’s nowhere to send them for sale.

I don’t care what anybody says there will be a food shortage due to the supply chain. We are going to see gassing of chicken and pork sheds even though there is people to feed. The middle man industry in the food chain is knackered. We are already seeing root crop planting down by 20%. Milk job is finished without intervention. Soft fruit? What soft fruit as the imported stuff will fade away soon enough.

When hundreds of thousands of people start defaulting on their mortgages, the banks could recall debt on farms and business to prop their domestic property loans up resulting in lots of farms on the market devaluing land by as much as 50%.

This country is a supply logistics setup in the main and the setup is now failing us. The government are talking about manufacturing in the uk again but they are going to have to financially support it to get it going. Then ultimately it’ll fail in years to come when China can supply at half the price because their standard of living is poor compared to ours.

The problem is in the UK and many other 1st world countries our standard of living has exceeded our ability to maintain it in a time of need like now.

devils advocate - discuss ........

Or they could just print some more money therefore devaluing the currency while there’s likely to be some devaluation of other main currencies,dollar, euro then reduce the National Debt along with it.

jendan · Apr 24, 2020

ollie989898 said:
Nationalise the entire economy probably.

The Tories have already started with North East Rail.There will be much more to follow.

Green farmer · Apr 24, 2020

I remember hearing a saying back in 2008 when everything went pear shaped in ireland. " it's only when the tide goes out, do you find out who's been swimming naked ". But seriously, I've no idea what's going to happen when all this ends. Could be a huge recession coming, or could things could start booming again , with people mad to start spending after been cooped up for so long ? The governments are racking up huge debts at the moment . These will have to be repaid sometime. Their also promise huge packages to kickstarter the economies, their talking trillions ? Oil is dirt cheap and energy costs low. Across much of the EU, the stomach isn't there for "austerity" . We've had enough of that in the past. So, crystal ball time, cause I dont have a scooby-doo what's going to happen next ?

warksfarmer · Apr 25, 2020

glasshouse said:
Cos there aint going to be much straw at this rate

Yep straw yields will easily be 50% down. Loads of fallow, maize, grass, linseed being planted.

warksfarmer · Apr 25, 2020

2wheels said:
and hard cash will be worthless which is the real bad news.

Money is money. It’s never worthless unless the earth explodes.

cattleman123 · Apr 25, 2020

warksfarmer said:
Money is money. It’s never worthless unless the earth explodes.

Money is only worth how the person who holds it spends it...some buy value investments...some waste it away..and some just keep it and it loses value anyway

Lincsman · Apr 25, 2020

Grassman said:
Some of the media are just looking for ways of tripping up the government minister as their downfall makes news. They continually go on asking stupid questions that any sensible journalist knows can't be answered yet. Piers Morgan, Laura kuensberg, Robert peston have all gone down in my estimations drastically.
And as for kier starmer. I thought he was being quite sensible with his approach to the government and how they were dealing with it. Then he says testing was too slow, lock down was too slow and soft and ppe supply was the fault of the government.
Funny how he didn't bring these things up a few weeks ago. Everyone is an expert with a dose of hindsight

I have got to agree, I want to be on the 4th podium so I can answer the dumb questions, which i can because I was listening, why can they never come on and say my question has already been answered fully, thankyou.

Doddsy · Apr 25, 2020

Lincoln75 said:
Negative equity only means something when you have to sell , you always need somewhere to live , if you can still pay the mortgage you have to keep paying and hope interest rate dont crucify you. There will be big winners and big losers in the next 12-18 months.

Agree, but problem with this is for those on a high LTV when they need to remortgage.

Grassman · Apr 25, 2020

Obviously a lot of government's round the world are going to borrow vast amounts over the next few years.
Who do they borrow off with the situation we have now?

ajd132 · Apr 25, 2020

I need a new truck as mine was stolen recently. I’m going to hold off a few months as there will be a massive drop in second hand value and loads of repossessions from finance companies. Got the old landy to keep me mobile for time being.

egbert · Apr 25, 2020

cattleman123 said:
Money is only worth how the person who holds it spends it...some buy value investments...some waste it away..and some just keep it and it loses value anyway

er...sitting on ready funds right now - with things possibly crashing- may be a very good way of increasing its value. It's the timing that matters.

livestock 1 · Apr 25, 2020

Grassman said:
Obviously a lot of government's round the world are going to borrow vast amounts over the next few years.
Who do they borrow off with the situation we have now?

Government borrowing is a bit different to what the rest of us do.

2wheels · Apr 25, 2020

warksfarmer said:
Money is money. It’s never worthless unless the earth explodes.

depends how much it gets devalued by indirect government policy or lack of it.

steveR · Apr 25, 2020

neilo said:
That's what happens when you build everything based on a service industry economy, eventually the house of cards comes tumbling down.

Maybe everything has been overvalued by 30%?

In other news, I was speaking with a guy that does a lot of machinery & ag finance the other day and he reckoned they were busier than ever, just working from home obviously. I'm sure I read a bit in an ag paper the other day, written by a shiny suited land agent, that there was tremendous demand for ag land.....

Possibly the same chap I use then, as I was also told farm borrowings on machinery and ag kit is still going nicely.

midlandslad · Apr 25, 2020

steveR said:
Possibly the same chap I use then, as I was also told farm borrowings on machinery and ag kit is still going nicely.

is that to finance new machinery or refinance existing machines to put money back into the farm?

Everything’s devalued by 30%

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Up to 25%

25-50%

50-75%

75-100%

100% I’ve had enough of farming!

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