Markets Await The WASDE

CRM AgriCommodities · Jul 10, 2020

US markets have continued to gain a degree of support in anticipation of tomorrows USDA WASDE as funds are likely reducing their exposure and covering short positions. However, these gains are against a backdrop of single day US Covid-19 cases reaching a new record of 62K yesterday, surpassing a milestone 3 million in total.

Corn / Maize

US corn net export sales of 599.2KT for the remaining 2019/2020 season were up 66% from the previous week and 30% from the prior 4-week average, with increases primarily for China 407.2KT. 2020/2021 net sales were also encouraging at 409.3KT. However, while sales were good, exports of 1.084MT were down 25% from the previous week and 11% from the prior 4-week average. While the hot weather forecasts linger for the US, there is adequate rainfall over the US corn belt forecast over the next 1-7 days.

Meanwhile, Conab lowered their total 2019/20 Brazilian corn production estimate by 0.4MT to 100.5MT, although still 0.5% larger than the 100MT produced in 2018/19. The safrinha corn production was lowered 0.7MT to 73.4MT due to lower yield estimates.

Wheat / Barley

Argentina’s wheat crop forecast is being cut to 18-19MT by Rosario Grains Exchange, down from 21-22MT due to dry conditions that affected planting.

Russia, while the wheat harvest has fallen behind average, preventing aggressive July exports, the average yield is rising rapidly, although according to Agritel remains down 20% compared to last year.

Oilseeds & Oil
Conab raised the 2019/20 Brazilian soybean production by 0.4MT from the June estimate to 120.8MT. The Brazilian soybean production is now 5.1% larger than the 115.0MT produced in 2018/19 with the acreage increased 3.0% in 2019/20 to 36.94MHA.

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Chae1 · Jul 13, 2020

So.... what did the much anticipated WASDE bring ?

CRM AgriCommodities · Jul 14, 2020

World wheat: Production down 4.13MT to 769.31MT – EU down 1.5MT to 139.5MT, Russia down 0.5MT. But 2019/20 global consumption down 0.9MT.
Maize: Global production down 25.27MT to 1163MT – US production down to 381MT from 406MT. BUT US domestic consumption in 2020/21 down 4.45MT and 2019/20 consumption down 3.68MT.
Soybeans: Global production relatively unchanged. US beginning stocks raised to 16.87Mt from 15.92MT with a near 1MT hit to 2019/20 domestic consumption.

We explore what this all means for domestic prices and dig deeper into the data in our latest analysis - https://graintab.com/analysis/

Markets Await The WASDE

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