Milk price 2021

O'Reilly

Member
Onura
Are predicting market weakness from December 2020 as mass unemployment and weak oil prices and low usuage feee through. They are predicting an over supply of between 5and 10% through 2020.
what milk price shouldwe be budgeting on ?
5% would be 750 million litres looking for a home in the UK alone. Multiplied across the world, it will make 2015 look like fun. Add in a bad Brexit and 20p will look like a good price. Can't understand why anyone is spending infrastructure at the moment.
 

jackrussell101

Member
Mixed Farmer
The biggest factor is whether you have an aligned contract or you have a non-aligned contract.

Most importantly, when you're trying to predict what your milk price will be next year, is take into consideration what milk contract you have and who your milk buyer is.

Who is your milk buyer?

The aligned boys with still be on 31p plus even if there is a savage Brexit, another brutal lockdown, or a thermo nuclear war.

It's just how our British dairy industry is I'm afraid.
 
Location
cumbria
I do get deal with what you can and dont worry about the rest.

But any well managed business will have an 18 month cashflow budget. @lazy farmer is simply asking for other peoples views as what to put in the topline to give a feel for the next 18 months and where he might be. This is just common sense business management. It may be wrong but at least you know where you could be and then change accordingly.

My finger in the air would say especially for lazy buyer a repeat of this year. However my budget would probably knock 1-2 ppl off.

If someone using figures pulled at random is the epitome of what is considered a well run business. Then good luck to them.

To my mind common sense business management would use known figures.
For example, why not start with your rolling average mopff. They all track each other, are a proven figure and give more insight than some random price.
 
The biggest factor is whether you have an aligned contract or you have a non-aligned contract.

Most importantly, when you're trying to predict what your milk price will be next year, is take into consideration what milk contract you have and who your milk buyer is.

Who is your milk buyer?

The aligned boys with still be on 31p plus even if there is a savage Brexit, another brutal lockdown, or a thermo nuclear war.

It's just how our British dairy industry is I'm afraid.
are you sure these aligned contracts will last? im surprised the supermarkets are being so generous to these guys
 

Surface Tension

Member
Mixed Farmer
Location
Scotland
They were introduced in 2006, 14 years ago, and as of yet they're still here...

Around the time that Tesco peaked in terms of market share at 31.7%. This year their market share has continued to drop to now 26.6%, looking at things from Tescos perspective you have to wonder where in the hierarchy of importance the TSDG is, when every year they continue to announce new cost cutting measures.
 

lady muck

Member
Location
Ayrshire
Around the time that Tesco peaked in terms of market share at 31.7%. This year their market share has continued to drop to now 26.6%, looking at things from Tescos perspective you have to wonder where in the hierarchy of importance the TSDG is, when every year they continue to announce new cost cutting measures.

yes but it’s political as if they pay the cost of production to their producers they are seen to be the good guys
 

Rossymons

Member
Location
Cornwall
Around the time that Tesco peaked in terms of market share at 31.7%. This year their market share has continued to drop to now 26.6%, looking at things from Tescos perspective you have to wonder where in the hierarchy of importance the TSDG is, when every year they continue to announce new cost cutting measures.

It's cheap PR whichever way you slice it.
 
5% would be 750 million litres looking for a home in the UK alone. Multiplied across the world, it will make 2015 look like fun. Add in a bad Brexit and 20p will look like a good price. Can't understand why anyone is spending infrastructure at the moment.

There's always uncertainty. Two years ago I nearly sold 150 cows because we went tb clear and I thought there was no chance of staying clear and I thought brexit would mean the strong milk couldn't last. I didn't sell them and I was wrong on both and we've had a couple of very profitable years. If the milk price was 20ppl I would understand people not investing but it's not and worldwide demand is strong.

If you live in the SW then tb is the biggest uncertainty when it comes to profitability even more so than milk price. There's a herd not very far from here that had never had a reactor until this spring, they calved 180 and three skin tests and one gamma later they are milking 60 and have lost most of their youngstock.
 

Dead Rabbits

Member
Location
'Merica
There's always uncertainty. Two years ago I nearly sold 150 cows because we went tb clear and I thought there was no chance of staying clear and I thought brexit would mean the strong milk couldn't last. I didn't sell them and I was wrong on both and we've had a couple of very profitable years. If the milk price was 20ppl I would understand people not investing but it's not and worldwide demand is strong.

If you live in the SW then tb is the biggest uncertainty when it comes to profitability even more so than milk price. There's a herd not very far from here that had never had a reactor until this spring, they calved 180 and three skin tests and one gamma later they are milking 60 and have lost most of their youngstock.
A good time to be selling heifers....
 

PDB

Member
Livestock Farmer
They are great if you have one. Keep a lot of v average farmers in business though, and inflate rents
 
Tags
dairy

SFI - What % were you taking out of production?

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Red Tractor drops launch of green farming scheme amid anger from farmers

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As reported in Independent


quote: “Red Tractor has confirmed it is dropping plans to launch its green farming assurance standard in April“

read the TFF thread here: https://thefarmingforum.co.uk/index.php?threads/gfc-was-to-go-ahead-now-not-going-ahead.405234/
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