Agents’ cheery outlook post-BPS

That's an interesting one. Is farming the only industry where significant proportions of owners regularly subsidise their loss-making business with other profitable ones?
To be fair that does happen a lot. In my case the estate has a very good resident owner who has lots going on, tourism, biomass, commercial and domestic rentals. But the ag is very intensive with lots of high value roots and you can guess who is subbing who at the moment 🤔
 
Location
southwest
If the Land Agent in the OP is so smart, why does he have to rely on farmers for a living? And did he predict a Worldwide pandemic?

Right, now we have confirmed he's just a blow hard, lets face a few facts.

Even with a worldwide pandemic, the population is still rising, more people die hungry than through covid and it just needs a few days disruption to cross border trade or even just a rumour of shortages to clear the shelves of stock.

We might not always need Land Agents but we'll always need food and the people who produce it.
 

Humble Village Farmer

Member
BASE UK Member
Location
Essex
Interesting he focuses on a £40k BPS.

What level will a £200k BPS payment be...? In cash terms an awful lot more lost! That’s not easy to replace.

I question whether out and out high tech farms really will be the future. Tech costs huge amounts of money, and Stone Age commodity prices really don’t justify it in many instances.

I can’t see many environmental farmers existing either. The payment rates won’t be there to just cash in on.....it will be more like “we’ll pay you £100 to do £120 worth of work”. I cannot see a profit element existing, let alone a substantial one able to sustain an income. The government just don’t value these public goods (in cash terms) like they claim to with rhetoric.

What is a farmer that has “exited the sector”...? How will that work? Surely if they cannot make money they will rent it out anyway without a payoff......assuming someone will pay them a chunky rent for it. If pennies are offered as rent, they will just keep it in hand and do as little as possible.

Does having less farmers help the country in any way? I don’t really see the benefit.
I understand that they are trying to encourage new entrants. How, I don't know.
 

puppet

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
sw scotland
It's 50k on 200ac as a one off. Not a bad top up to the pension. Still get to sell farm assets. Don't need to pay it back. How profitable will a farm on the wind down be post bps?
I'd say it will be very attractive to some.
If you pay a lump sum of BPS as an advance payment to retire then what support is left for the new entrant? Why can't the old farmer just sell up and some BPS is siphoned into a reserve? The idea that the next generation is being held back to making the land more productive is at odds with the political move away from production and into environmental issues. The 2 don't add up.
Better to just pay the old boys to plant trees, dig ponds and reduce stock to allow flooding by beavers and nature to flourish. Perhaps leave a few sheep to feed the lynx
 

holwellcourtfarm

Member
Livestock Farmer
It's not the only industry that does it. Look how many retail stores have a cafe, DIY stores sell plants, ag merchants sell horse stuff, airports stuffed full of shops selling all sorts etc etc it's all about spreading income base, we do lots of different things but each one has to stand on it's own merit, of course it is easy to spread yourself too thin and doing nothing well
Are they all unprofitable though or just sub-letting some free space to increase profits?
 

midlandslad

Member
Location
Midlands
I wouldn’t worry about the land agents, the next few years will be the best yet. Change brings with it activity and activity generally needs professional advice. Defra have 13 new schemes coming out and all these retirements will produce machinery and farm sales/lettings. The banks will be more nervous/cautious to lend so will want regular cash flows and valuations. ££££
 

ajd132

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Suffolk
????? so what do you do with your land ? make it un farmable by anyone ?

....... i think most would retire by selling for £10k plus per acre than £250 per acre

:ROFLMAO: :ROFLMAO:
Surely they aren’t going to give people 250acre as a permission to sell?!?! Lee must have the wrong.
 

ajd132

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Suffolk
Recently attended a zoom meeting with a respected independent land agent. He described the next 5 yrs as the biggest change in Farming in a lifetime. He painted a fairly bleak picture of agric under the Tory government’s funding plans, none of which encourage food production:

> £40K BPS will be £19k in 2024!!
> New schemes (ELMS , Carbon trading, etc) collectively will not nearly replace BPS monetarily
> 75% farms are NOT profitable w/o BPS. (obv depend on weather/prices)
> Post Brexit exporting bureaucracy will incur costs which will be borne at the farmgate. Prices will be more volatile too

He foresees 3 types of farm streams going forward:

1 Out and out large commercial hi-tech farms

2 ‘Environmental farmers’ taking advantage of schemes carbon trading, natural capital.

3 Farmers exit sector altogether taking a one off Govt payment of 250/ac to do so

Put like this it and the short timescale involved- there’s nothing gradual about it- we are in for a tumultuous period. In particular for small family farms which may be sink or swim.

Any thoughts?
Won’t 1 and 2 be done by the same people?
 

DRC

Member
With the best intentions in the world, the retirement package will only work if farmers want to retire. For many of these “stubborn” types it is a way of life, whether they have seen any profit in the job is immaterial, they would have to be carted out in a box to stop farming.
With the reduction in BPS, I naively thought that once these “old” farmers on AHA tenancies lost the very BPS payment that was propping up their rent money (or for some CC farms covering it 😕) then it may encourage them to surrender their tenancy if the holding was going to cost them money to farm. From where I’m standing right now in my career, the retirement package offer is a complete poke In the eye to people trying to get on the farming ladder. Any farmer who was thinking of surrendering a tenancy in the next four years will now sit it out, waiting to find out what incentives are thrown their way first??
But do you honestly believe any tenancies given up will go to new entrants . Our estate is mostly AHAs, but as soon as a farm becomes available, the land has been let on an FBT to the highest bidder or lately, one preferred tenant.
The agents told me that they envisage just two tenants eventually on the whole estate.
sadly in my opinion, there’s 3 farmsteads with houses lying empty, as the owners don’t seem bothered about spending on them to bring them up to legal letting requirements or selling them.
oh and there’s a few of my neighbours, past retirement age, that are still fit and active and very good farmers, despite paying rent . I remember one old retired tenant saying that being tenants made us better farmers, as we had to be to pay the rent.
 

4course

Member
Location
north yorks
I wouldn’t worry about the land agents, the next few years will be the best yet. Change brings with it activity and activity generally needs professional advice. Defra have 13 new schemes coming out and all these retirements will produce machinery and farm sales/lettings. The banks will be more nervous/cautious to lend so will want regular cash flows and valuations. ££££
do you really think there is going to be a headlong rush into retirement
 

Fat hen

Member
That's an interesting one. Is farming the only industry where significant proportions of owners regularly subsidise their loss-making business with other profitable ones?

It's not the only industry that does it. Look how many retail stores have a cafe, DIY stores sell plants, ag merchants sell horse stuff, airports stuffed full of shops selling all sorts etc etc it's all about spreading income base, we do lots of different things but each one has to stand on it's own merit, of course it is easy to spread yourself too thin and doing nothing well
I think the difference is that with farming the capital outlay (land, machinery, inputs) is huge versus profit and yet still often makes a loss, and ironically needs propping up by another enterprise.
 

robs1

Member
Are they all unprofitable though or just sub-letting some free space to increase profits?
Isnt that what farmers are doing ? We have several old low farm buildings that have no use whatsoever for modern farm uses, they make ideal workshops for small local businesses. It's about using your assets to best use whether that's land, buildings or yourself to the best advantage,
 

robs1

Member
Makes me think of the good old Mini car which was sold at a loss

I think the difference is that with farming the capital outlay (land, machinery, inputs) is huge versus profit and yet still often makes a loss, and ironically needs propping up by another enterprise.
If that's the case then they should sell up, or rent that part out and concentrate on the profitable part.
 

holwellcourtfarm

Member
Livestock Farmer
Isnt that what farmers are doing ? We have several old low farm buildings that have no use whatsoever for modern farm uses, they make ideal workshops for small local businesses. It's about using your assets to best use whether that's land, buildings or yourself to the best advantage,
Sadly, no. The data shows that many are actually losing money even after income from off the farm or from profitable diversifications.
 

teslacoils

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Lincolnshire
1) I have a good feeling there will be dosh to be made in arable farming in the short term.

2) but there is always more to be gained by land values changing.

I'd say sod £100/AC more income if land values are strong.
 

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