Get Yer Toque On!

Blaithin · Jul 22, 2021

Here’s part of the stress of this year. Phenomenal prices were very tempting. Forward contracts are now being fubar’d by some companies.

The fella got mad at one company last year and tried to buy out. They wouldn’t let him and were being asses. Now they’re saying it would take $100k to get out of the 200 tonne. Starting to give other options instead now. Don’t know if it’s one of the companies this guy is talking about.

Blaithin · Jul 22, 2021

Joke.

Had a storm go through today. Just a bit of rain at work. Hopefully more at home, but no hail. Sounds like a few guys got hit hard with the white combine.

cows sh#t me to tears · Jul 23, 2021

When it rains it pours.......

Blaithin · Jul 23, 2021

It didn’t

Got enough at home to make the little floaty thing in the rain gauge float. Road is still dusty though.

cows sh#t me to tears · Jul 23, 2021

Just a saying.... (you probably knew that.) Drought, then hail storms to wreck what little crop there is, and if not that, grass hoppers...Its just one of them years for Nth America.

cows sh#t me to tears · Jul 23, 2021

Stupid grain truck got bogged at the dairy this morning. Just proves truck drivers dont have any brains. Tried backing up off the track to turn around

seriously wtf. It's as wet as here and theres a perfectly good round about that the milk tanker NEVER gets bogged using....

Blaithin · Aug 1, 2021

Went for a trip east to pick up a tractor. Weird looking thing but he likes them. Got to see a large chunk of area across southern Saskatchewan. It’s not good. Makes around the fellas place look not so awful and around home looks downright bumper crop from the road.

Just before we left the fella had a hail storm cut across his two northern fields. 100% done, which is too bad as they were alright fields. Now juggling to see if the little that’s left is going to be silaged or baled.

Different storm a couple days later had some serious winds and took out a few bins in its path

Harvest is starting. Seen some peas at work. First time in forever, if ever, that guys can remember harvesting in July. About an hour south they were getting 17bpa and then a bit closer to home where things get better they’re getting between 30-40bpa.

Grain prices are through the roof and it’s starting to f**k with everything else. Got quoted $90+/tonne for silage out of the pit because it’s based off the price of barley which is at least $8/bushel right now. So the cost of that smelly water has kind of made me

Blaithin · Aug 1, 2021

If anyone remembers these two barley fields side by side. Right field seeded ~10 days before left. Left is a drought tolerant variety, right most likely isn’t.
(Not a Recent photo)

Here’s the heads.

Left field.

Right field

There are heads in the left field that have aborted the tops but quite surprised at how big many of them are!

cows sh#t me to tears · Aug 2, 2021

Blaithin said:
Went for a trip east to pick up a tractor. Weird looking thing but he likes them. Got to see a large chunk of area across southern Saskatchewan. It’s not good. Makes around the fellas place look not so awful and around home looks downright bumper crop from the road.
View attachment 977283
View attachment 977285

Just before we left the fella had a hail storm cut across his two northern fields. 100% done, which is too bad as they were alright fields. Now juggling to see if the little that’s left is going to be silaged or baled.

View attachment 977271 View attachment 977272 View attachment 977273 View attachment 977274 View attachment 977275

Different storm a couple days later had some serious winds and took out a few bins in its path
View attachment 977276

Harvest is starting. Seen some peas at work. First time in forever, if ever, that guys can remember harvesting in July. About an hour south they were getting 17bpa and then a bit closer to home where things get better they’re getting between 30-40bpa.

Grain prices are through the roof and it’s starting to fudge with everything else. Got quoted $90+/tonne for silage out of the pit because it’s based off the price of barley which is at least $8/bushel right now. So the cost of that smelly water has kind of made me

It's the perfect storm when everything that can go wrong does..... Had been kind of getting used it it being us all the time.

Blaithin · Aug 2, 2021

cows sh#t me to tears said:
It's the perfect storm when everything that can go wrong does..... Had been kind of getting used it it being us all the time.

Oh no, it’s regular here too.

The next step is raining as soon as harvest kicks in.

Blaithin · Aug 2, 2021

Here’s the July maps.

Live in between Calgary and Edmonton, but closer to Calgary. 3 degrees higher than average.

And the drought map for the end of July. Realize that Canada and the States have this thing where all stuff stops at the border. American maps are as broad as this one on the southern side of the line. It’s a very large area.

cows sh#t me to tears · Aug 2, 2021

Blaithin said:
Oh no, it’s regular here too.

The next step is raining as soon as harvest kicks in.

And yet....... The UK contingent on here bìtch and moan when it doesn't rain for 3 weeks. And they wonder why we get so pìssed off about it.

Cowmansam · Aug 2, 2021

When we are used to 3 types of weather by lunch time it’s a shock to the system to get a dry week never mind a dry month it’s like the worlds ending but yes I take your point

Blaithin · Aug 2, 2021

cows sh#t me to tears said:
And yet....... The UK contingent on here bìtch and moan when it doesn't rain for 3 weeks. And they wonder why we get so pìssed off about it.

It’s probably only been about 3 weeks without rain here. It’s the heat that’s been the real killer.

Moisture insurance on pastures and silage apparently isn’t coming through because it doesn’t look at the fields, it’s only done by computer based on precipitation amounts. According to them there’s been enough precipitation.

We also regularly get multiple seasons in a day…. But a year is long and multiple seasons a day doesn’t mean sufficient precipitation nor good growing conditions.

Blaithin · Aug 2, 2021

Here is the percent of average precipitation compared to the soil moisture map.

As it shows, a large portion of the area has received over 60% of its normal precipitation. There’s no reason for it to be so popcorn fart dry except precipitation is not the only factor that leads to a drought. I think this is the main thing that the UK crowd misses out when they cry drought. Yes their rain might be lower, but their heat units don’t shoot through the roof for months.

Crops here can and do function on 60% precipitation just fine. But the heat has sucked the subsoil dry and severely stressed the crops as well. Those are the two issues, not really that it hasn’t rained in 3 weeks.

Really… the only thing that’s saved us has probably been the fact that it’s been smokey for a month.

It should also be noted, because international people won’t really know, but a large portion of the orange area, specifically Manitoba and the blob around Edmonton, are very wet areas. So they have also been getting the rain this year, but because they are notoriously so wet, the bit that’s come is much less than normal. Farmers around Edmonton were actually flooded out last year. Their plants are not well rooted for this heat because in spring they would have only needed to root shallowly to reach moisture. Now they’re hobbled. These areas are extremely hard hit when normally they are barely hit at all and can typically help support those of us in drier locations. Part of this is going to be because these locations rely on tillage to help dry out their soils to farm (much like the UK) which does not translate well to the heat we’ve been getting. Dry land farms don’t till so fields here are better conditioned.

Blaithin · Aug 2, 2021

Just for fun. A size comparison of the area covered vs the UK. Again keeping in mind the US also has a huge chunk affected.

Blaithin · Aug 2, 2021

So here’s a creepy thing someone looked up.

Droughts here tend to come in 20 year cycles (is it similar there @cows sh#t me to tears?) Last big one was 2002. Bad drought, horrible grasshoppers, etc etc. At least the grasshoppers are still building up in the south and haven’t arrived here yet….

Anyway, another farmer got the idea to check out moon cycles. 2002 vs 2021

Depending on sources this years full moons can be off by a day but it’s still eerily close. Coincidence?

Be interesting to compare Aussie droughts to moon cycles. Maybe Southern Hemisphere happens on new moons and northern on full?

cows sh#t me to tears · Aug 2, 2021

Think a lot has to do with solar cycles as well. Old bloke next door used to say floods came in 20year cycles. Droughts I would have said were closer to a 14 year cycle. But. After 2019 coming on the back of 2008- 10 I think it's a lot more random.....People look for patterns in most things...helps the soothsayers feel good about themselves if they fluke one.

cows sh#t me to tears · Aug 2, 2021

Blaithin said:
Here is the percent of average precipitation compared to the soil moisture map.

As it shows, a large portion of the area has received over 60% of its normal precipitation. There’s no reason for it to be so popcorn fart dry except precipitation is not the only factor that leads to a drought. I think this is the main thing that the UK crowd misses out when they cry drought. Yes their rain might be lower, but their heat units don’t shoot through the roof for months.

Crops here can and do function on 60% precipitation just fine. But the heat has sucked the subsoil dry and severely stressed the crops as well. Those are the two issues, not really that it hasn’t rained in 3 weeks.

Really… the only thing that’s saved us has probably been the fact that it’s been smokey for a month.
View attachment 977491 View attachment 977492

It should also be noted, because international people won’t really know, but a large portion of the orange area, specifically Manitoba and the blob around Edmonton, are very wet areas. So they have also been getting the rain this year, but because they are notoriously so wet, the bit that’s come is much less than normal. Farmers around Edmonton were actually flooded out last year. Their plants are not well rooted for this heat because in spring they would have only needed to root shallowly to reach moisture. Now they’re hobbled. These areas are extremely hard hit when normally they are barely hit at all and can typically help support those of us in drier locations. Part of this is going to be because these locations rely on tillage to help dry out their soils to farm (much like the UK) which does not translate well to the heat we’ve been getting. Dry land farms don’t till so fields here are better conditioned.

We were the same here. Crops tend to BE deep rooted, so even though we could be multiple years with soil moisture deficiencies because our winter crops are grown in um "winter"... they would grow (maybe not the usual bulk) the killer was spring with no rain and heat building up.

Breakthru · Aug 2, 2021

Above 25C they stop growing irrespective of moisture. Leaf temperature (like track temp in F1) is much higher so they start to curl for protection from the sun so consequently less photosynthesis. Slightly different for potatoes as in their latin name they are a sun crop.

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