So why are so many vaccinated people getting Covid?

Goweresque

Member
Location
North Wilts
Here is a very good article detailing the differences between Case Fatality Rate (CFR) and Infection Fatality Rate (IFR), the former being the % of confirmed cases who die, and the later being the % of all infected people who die. The latter will usually be far lower that the former, especially with covid, as many infected people are either asymptomatic, and/or never get a formal test to become an official case. The current CFRs globally are under 3%, even in places like Brazil who have been hit very hard, so the IFRs will be far lower than those quoted CFR figures.


If 5% of unvaccinated people with Delta CV were dying in 2021 then places like India (where the Delta variant originated) would be charnel houses. India is currently only about 20% vaccinated (ie about 300m people) that leaves 80% (1.1bn) at risk from the Delta variant. There are currently about 200 deaths from covid in the entire of India per day. A 5% IFR just doesn't pass the smell test.
 

Mouser

Member
Location
near Belfast
Here is a very good article detailing the differences between Case Fatality Rate (CFR) and Infection Fatality Rate (IFR), the former being the % of confirmed cases who die, and the later being the % of all infected people who die. The latter will usually be far lower that the former, especially with covid, as many infected people are either asymptomatic, and/or never get a formal test to become an official case. The current CFRs globally are under 3%, even in places like Brazil who have been hit very hard, so the IFRs will be far lower than those quoted CFR figures.


If 5% of unvaccinated people with Delta CV were dying in 2021 then places like India (where the Delta variant originated) would be charnel houses. India is currently only about 20% vaccinated (ie about 300m people) that leaves 80% (1.1bn) at risk from the Delta variant. There are currently about 200 deaths from covid in the entire of India per day. A 5% IFR just doesn't pass the smell test.
Careful now, facts aren't really allowed anymore you know.
 

kiwi pom

Member
Location
canterbury NZ
It depends on your definition of 'a lot'. If you mean 'about as many as a really bad flu epidemic, but not anywhere near as many as the very worst flu epidemic in modern history' then yes, you could say covid kills a lot. I would tend to disagree and say it kills within parameters we have weathered in the past without the current kerfuffle.

The survival rate for covid was somewhere around 99.7% pre vaccines. What you have to ask yourself is this - will taking a vaccine that degrades the ability to fend off the multiple versions of covid that will be around forever from now on reduce the future survival rate below 99.7%?

If it does then the vaccines will have killed many millions more than if you just let it rip.
All I know is it killed a lot of people (not in NZ) and filled a lot of hospitals despite some quite extraordinary measures to keep people away from each other. No one knows what would have happened if the world had continued as normal.
For me, I've taken the medical advice and got vaccinated, who knows what the future brings, hopefully better vaccines and more treatments for when you do get sick. I'll leave that to the scientists to sort out.
As I've said in other threads I'm not sure there's a need for my 9 and 7 year olds to get the current vaccine when/if it is cleared.
I'll leave that decision for a while longer.
 

Gong Farmer

Member
BASIS
Location
S E Glos
The vast majority of hospitalisations and deaths are in the small part of the population who have chosen to not be vaccinated, thats good enough for me to choose a booster. Sod your conspiracy theories
You are right to have the booster, @Goweresque 's explanation mirrors a lot of other recent info and if you have been double-vaxed then boosters for now and forever are the only way of getting any sort of defence.
 

kiwi pom

Member
Location
canterbury NZ
You are right to have the booster, @Goweresque 's explanation mirrors a lot of other recent info and if you have been double-vaxed then boosters for now and forever are the only way of getting any sort of defence.
Not really a big deal though. I get a flu jab every year. I believe It gets changed a bit each year depending what strains are around? Covid boosters might be the same?

I'm not a fan of forcing people to have it though.
 
The vast majority of hospitalisations and deaths are in the small part of the population who have chosen to not be vaccinated, thats good enough for me to choose a booster. Sod your conspiracy theories
I would like to see the full data on this. 1. the % of that cohort that were already immune comprised and unable to take the jab say the extremely poorly individual at end of life . 2. I would like to see the % of that - that were healthy 3. I would like to see the age range. The hospitalisations are all due to non-vaccine isnt good enough (chosen not to) slight edge of manipulation. I was on the ONS and found the Covid death figures for the 'no existing conditions' up to June 2020. Just under 1000. Which is still too high I know. I know no one or a friend of a friend thats been extremely ill or hospitalised. We are involved in construction and this group seemed to carry on throughout the virus.

Compare that 1000 people who died v seasonal flu.

Seasonal flu is pretty nasty to the elderly. That has been bushed under the carpet. Whether individuals were tested properly for the flu is another question.
 

essex man

Member
Location
colchester
I would like to see the full data on this. 1. the % of that cohort that were already immune comprised and unable to take the jab say the extremely poorly individual at end of life . 2. I would like to see the % of that - that were healthy 3. I would like to see the age range. The hospitalisations are all due to non-vaccine isnt good enough (chosen not to) slight edge of manipulation. I was on the ONS and found the Covid death figures for the 'no existing conditions' up to June 2020. Just under 1000. Which is still too high I know. I know no one or a friend of a friend thats been extremely ill or hospitalised. We are involved in construction and this group seemed to carry on throughout the virus.

Compare that 1000 people who died v seasonal flu.

Seasonal flu is pretty nasty to the elderly. That has been bushed under the carpet. Whether individuals were tested properly for the flu is another question.
Indeed! And those 1000 include people who were over 100 years old.
97% had a previously diagnosed serious condition and 97% were over 60... it's how you get to figures in hundreds of people under 60 dying without a previously diagnosed serious condition.
Most likely thing is that, at least some of those had an undiagnosed condition.
It's also why mortality figures are better than many years this century despite a supposedly deadly virus infecting 20 million people.
 
can anyone hazard a guess on the death number if vaccines hadnt been rolled out?
impossible. But like I said if you go the ONS the basic stats are on there. People who died with no preexisting condition up to June 2020 was less than 1000. The n you would need to look at full death but those would incl those who were already had serious illness who were end of life who would of died of any respiratory illness who more than likely in hospital who would of surcombe to the slightiest infection . You would need to look closer to the figures than the blanket figure. We were told that 1:5 people who be hospitalized at the beginning of the lockdown pre vaccine. What was the actual figure?
 

Exfarmer

Member
Location
Bury St Edmunds
Thats because you're assuming (with no great evidence to do so) that the vaccine was in no way the cause of the infection. Its entirely possible that your relative caught covid BECAUSE they were vaccinated, not despite. The data is very clear - the double vaccinated are now MORE likely to catch the virus than the non-vaccinated, see the UK HSA report I linked to above.

Its no good saying 'I nearly died from covid, thank goodness I had the vaccine' if the vaccine is the reason you caught it in the first place.

And the second point about low N antibodies is about the future, not the here and now. Lets assume the vaccines do protect against death from the versions of the virus we see today, but in doing so they damage your ability to counter new versions in the future. Yes you survive now, but are now at far greater risk in the future. If there's one thing we know about coronaviruses its that they mutate like b*ggery. It will only take a small mutation in the spike protein for a new version to bypass the S antibody defences entirely, and where are you then?
I am sorry, but you are misreading the figures. There is very good reason why higher figures for the Roche N group among younger unvaccinated groups and that is because younger people will always exhibit a far higher level of immune response than their older cohort.
These figures you refer to were taken from Blood donations and the levels of antibodies contained. The figures will also be distorted by the simple fact that nearly all the older cohort were vaccinated ( it is known that blood donors have a far higher likelihood of bering vaccinated for all diseases) The younger Cohort were far more likely to not be vaccinated due to the phasing of the vaccine programme.
If you look at other figures in the report it is patently obvious that even if you do catch the virus mortality rates are between 3 and five times higher among the unvaccinated in the over 50 age group for the unvaccinated.
The numbers in the under 50 are too small samples to give any true picture.
I still hope and expect that we shall see a better vaccine possibly in the untenuated types which are possibly going to give hope of a fuller protection. The French Minerva vaccine has shown great promise
 

Goweresque

Member
Location
North Wilts
All I know is it killed a lot of people (not in NZ) and filled a lot of hospitals despite some quite extraordinary measures to keep people away from each other. No one knows what would have happened if the world had continued as normal.

It seems like a lot of people, because the world has a lot more people than it used to have, and a lot more old people as well. When the Hong Kong Flu hit in 1968/69 the population of the world was 3.6 billion and it killed between 1 and 4 million people globally (estimated). The population of the world is now 7.7bn, so more than double, and the average age of those people, especially in Western countries is far older, so there are far more people potentially at risk, as covid is a killer of old age, like the flu. Covid has currently killed about 5m globally (if you take the official stats as gospel) so adjusted for population alone then its slap bang in the same ball park as Hong Kong flu for mortality. Take into account the ageing global population and mortality might actually be lower than the Hong Kong flu.

The truth is, for all the fear propaganda we have been hosed with, covid is not that dangerous a disease, compared to other viral epidemics. Its nasty for sure, but not 'Oh my god we must move heaven and earth to stop it' nasty. We need a sense of perspective here. If we behave like this for a disease that objectively is not that bad, how are we ever going to cope when (and it will be when, not if) a disease with a REALLY bad mortality rate turns up? The CFR for SARS was c.15%, ie 5 times the current CFR for Covid. Not only that its CFR for the over 60s was 50%! Imagine that on a global scale ripping through elderly Western nations. Now that would be a reason to take extreme measures. But a nasty flu epidemic? Just forget about it and get on with life, we all have to die eventually, and no amount of vaccines are going to prevent our eventual demise.

I have theory that the extreme panic that covid has engendered (in Western populations at least ) is down to the fact that we no longer have a true sense of death. Death is hidden away from us for most of our lives, we don't have to face it until it becomes a very personal issue, in the broader public sphere death is not really ever discussed or considered. People just assume that they will live well into their 80s and thus anyone under the age of 60 won't really have contemplated their own mortality much, or come to terms with it psychologically. Covid has forced everyone to do that in a very short space of time - suddenly people who imagined they had decades of life left had to consider the possibility they could die next week. Thats a very heavy psychological blow to cope with, and I think this is the source of the panic. 50 years ago when Hong Kong flu hit people a) died younger anyway so death was an issue at far younger ages than today and b) they had just come through a World War that had killed tens of millions, so a few deaths from the flu wasn't going to faze them.
 

Goweresque

Member
Location
North Wilts
I still hope and expect that we shall see a better vaccine possibly in the untenuated types which are possibly going to give hope of a fuller protection. The French Minerva vaccine has shown great promise
I think its called Valneva. I was hoping that it would be passed for UK use soon, as I would be happy to take such a vaccine, my beef is not with vaccines per se, more the mRNA ones which are are highly experimental, and we are effectively doing clinical trials of them on the entire global population, which in my opinion is unconscionable.

Unfortunately for some reason the UK government has ended its contract for 100m doses of the Valneva vaccine, and its future is somewhat in the air. It may not even get UK approval. They were hoping to build a factory to make it in Livingston, Scotland. The conspiracy theorist in me wonders if thats because it could be far better (and safer) than than the mRNA ones and would make them look bad......
 

Mouser

Member
Location
near Belfast
can anyone hazard a guess on the death number if vaccines hadnt been rolled out?
Yes the experts at cambridge I think say the vaccine has saved a further 127,500 deaths in the uk according to govs vaccine surveillance report.
Would love to see their workings out to get that number but can only assume they entered worst case scenario in every opportunity.
 

BrianV

Member
Mixed Farmer
Location
Dartmoor
The vaccines were never going to stop you catching covid just as the flu vaccine doesn't stop you getting mild flu, the idea is to build some immunity to keep you out of hospital so other poor devils suffering from cancer etc can get the urgent treatment they need, with hospitals filling up with selfish prats who cannot think of other people who have no way of avoiding their serious illnesses means that wards & doctors are fighting an endless battle to stop covid spreading to other innocent patients.
Selfish idiots that refuse to help save others by not having the vaccine should contact the local vet if they get seriously ill with covid not hypocritically rush to a hospital!
 

Mouser

Member
Location
near Belfast
The vaccines were never going to stop you catching covid just as the flu vaccine doesn't stop you getting mild flu, the idea is to build some immunity to keep you out of hospital so other poor devils suffering from cancer etc can get the urgent treatment they need, with hospitals filling up with selfish prats who cannot think of other people who have no way of avoiding their serious illnesses means that wards & doctors are fighting an endless battle to stop covid spreading to other innocent patients.
Selfish idiots that refuse to help save others by not having the vaccine should contact the local vet if they get seriously ill with covid not hypocritically rush to a hospital!
So vaccinating everyone under 40 who are occupying 0.1% of hospital beds is going to make a difference?
It was and unbelievably still is being said that the vaccine will reduce transmission significantly enough that it will protect those around you. It's a huge reason for the initial quick uptake in age groups not at significant risk from virus. It was also claimed it would be easily modified for future mutations but yet 9 months on the scaremongering has started again on vaccine clearing mutations!
 

Exfarmer

Member
Location
Bury St Edmunds
The vaccines were never going to stop you catching covid just as the flu vaccine doesn't stop you getting mild flu, the idea is to build some immunity to keep you out of hospital so other poor devils suffering from cancer etc can get the urgent treatment they need, with hospitals filling up with selfish prats who cannot think of other people who have no way of avoiding their serious illnesses means that wards & doctors are fighting an endless battle to stop covid spreading to other innocent patients.
Selfish idiots that refuse to help save others by not having the vaccine should contact the local vet if they get seriously ill with covid not hypocritically rush to a hospital!
Flu vaccine isonly effective against the strain they inject you against. Flu is a range of closely associated viruses which are continually changing, believed when it crosses species which it does easily. Before rapid transit systems it was only rare that a strain got away from its source, mostly dieing out in the village where it jumped from man to pig to bird to man, or something like that.
Today it is straight to your local doctor and he is straight off to the city to report this new strain . Then on to an international conference to discuss limiting its spread.
Most of these strains are circulating the world and by monitoring them they fairly accurately forecast which will hit this autumn, but it is hit and miss and although they vaccinate for four strains this year and some of years they get it wrong and the result is a bad flu season.
Thankfully most of us have a fair amount of resistance acquired from previous bouts of very similar viruses so again it is not that many who are that ill. Unlike 1918 where none of the young had never come across that strain and death toll was very high. However it is believed that a similar strain passed through the country in the 1880’s and so those over 40 had a fair resistance and death rates on the old population were light
 

Goweresque

Member
Location
North Wilts

milkloss

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
East Sussex
Here is a very good article detailing the differences between Case Fatality Rate (CFR) and Infection Fatality Rate (IFR), the former being the % of confirmed cases who die, and the later being the % of all infected people who die. The latter will usually be far lower that the former, especially with covid, as many infected people are either asymptomatic, and/or never get a formal test to become an official case. The current CFRs globally are under 3%, even in places like Brazil who have been hit very hard, so the IFRs will be far lower than those quoted CFR figures.


If 5% of unvaccinated people with Delta CV were dying in 2021 then places like India (where the Delta variant originated) would be charnel houses. India is currently only about 20% vaccinated (ie about 300m people) that leaves 80% (1.1bn) at risk from the Delta variant. There are currently about 200 deaths from covid in the entire of India per day. A 5% IFR just doesn't pass the smell test.
Weren't India using some off label drugs?
 

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