Combinables Price Tracker

Worsall

Member
Arable Farmer
Don’t let tax ever stop you from making as much as possible- you won’t ever pay more than 40% of what you make extra
Obviously, but all I was pointing out was you must look at the whole net gain when considering risk of a volatile market. Same with CFA, for every £10/t increase, my net gain after tax is £3/t.
How long the Bulls will keep driving this market, which is fundamentally a Covid rebound, is unknown and in my opinion a massive gamble. Funds have moved massive long positions from Nov to May, and will want their profit sometime.

Past performance is no guide to the future, but it is a bloody good reminder.
28th Feb 2008 Milling wheat £211.40
by 22nd May 2008 it was £170
and by next harvest 21st August £142
 

Old apprentice

Member
Arable Farmer
Obviously, but all I was pointing out was you must look at the whole net gain when considering risk of a volatile market. Same with CFA, for every £10/t increase, my net gain after tax is £3/t.
How long the Bulls will keep driving this market, which is fundamentally a Covid rebound, is unknown and in my opinion a massive gamble. Funds have moved massive long positions from Nov to May, and will want their profit sometime.

Past performance is no guide to the future, but it is a bloody good reminder.
28th Feb 2008 Milling wheat £211.40
by 22nd May 2008 it was £170
and by next harvest 21st August £142

But was the world in a more surplus position then ?
 

MrNoo

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Cirencester
No, today we have a projected World ending stocks of wheat of 277 mil tons, the lowest it has been since just 2016/2017.
In March 2008 it was the lowest for thirty years at 109 mil tons.
But the China figure is always one that "should" throw a spanner in the works but never seems to do, nobody seems to know the exact accurate figures. Also in March 08 we didnt have fert at best part of £700/t, fert in Aus is 1000 dollars/t, shortage it would seem everywhere so I am unsure you can compare.
My agronomist says that some of his large estates he looks after have not bought, maybe they are very clever, very brave or stupid, time will determine
 

Clive

Staff Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Lichfield
Hanging on to my May 22 futurges for now, although plan was get out at 220 I just can’t see what would cause any downside now, how much further it can rise is anyones guess however ! Safe gambling profit now however


Nov 22 futures looking relatively cheap right now given this will be the harvest that high N prices leading to lower use will affect anyone buying ?
 

Clive

Staff Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Lichfield
Obviously, but all I was pointing out was you must look at the whole net gain when considering risk of a volatile market. Same with CFA, for every £10/t increase, my net gain after tax is £3/t.
How long the Bulls will keep driving this market, which is fundamentally a Covid rebound, is unknown and in my opinion a massive gamble. Funds have moved massive long positions from Nov to May, and will want their profit sometime.

Past performance is no guide to the future, but it is a bloody good reminder.
28th Feb 2008 Milling wheat £211.40
by 22nd May 2008 it was £170
and by next harvest 21st August £142

can you really see anything that could cause such drops right now though ? Fert prices have never tripled before or supply of essential inputs ,like glyphosate never been in such doubt, low world stocks and production problems in various large production areas

what news could turn this market round to bearish now ?
 

Drillman

Member
Mixed Farmer
can you really see anything that could cause such drops right now though ? Fert prices have never tripled before or supply of essential inputs ,like glyphosate never been in such doubt, low world stocks and production problems in various large production areas

what news could turn this market round to bearish now ?
Feed wheat has dropped 50p so far today for November, time to panic sell, sell, sell😂😂😂
 
For how high can it go look at the import price of maize
deliverd price fo maize is £ 249 for December
German e wheat £280 delivered to mill December

current deliverd uk prices still below these levels
exfarm barley £198 January is the cheapest feed around
Wheat £230 delivered for soft milling

imho prices not falling any time soon

the question is 2022 harvest prices given good planting area could rise but a lot of ground was entered into stewardship
round here I would say less wheat but 2020 there was a lot of fallow that was wheat in 2021
hold is my current position sold enough for 2021 cannot see it falling
every one who had to sell up to now will have got it booked
the Rpa have paid most people on time the last couple of year so cash flow needs are less in December

the price hits the top when farmers have sold it all
 

Widgetone

Member
Trade
Location
Westish Suffolk
£220ish also a good number for computers to sell at.
Yep, never underestimate a computer algorithm programme. Then theres the more basic human element of greed ( when its going up ) and fear ( when its going down ).
Even though everything fundamental still looks bullish, profits are never realised until futures positions are closed out - there will be a period if the market comes off say £5 or so over a day or two that some folk will bail.
 
Yep, never underestimate a computer algorithm programme. Then theres the more basic human element of greed ( when its going up ) and fear ( when its going down ).
Even though everything fundamental still looks bullish, profits are never realised until futures positions are closed out - there will be a period if the market comes off say £5 or so over a day or two that some folk will bail.
When the futures were in the 80 to 140 range £ 5 movement in a day was a lot
now with future in the 190 to 225 rang £ 5 is not a big movement in a day

the rise up since May has had several dips of more than £10 which will have taken out many sell stops
it used to to certain that the market had never been back to the highs if it fell £6 is that now nearer £20

edit the fall for May 22 futures was near £25 195 down to 170 this could have taken out a lot of forward sellers
future now back up at 222 today up £52 since the pre harvest low
 
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SFI - What % were you taking out of production?

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Red Tractor drops launch of green farming scheme amid anger from farmers

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As reported in Independent


quote: “Red Tractor has confirmed it is dropping plans to launch its green farming assurance standard in April“

read the TFF thread here: https://thefarmingforum.co.uk/index.php?threads/gfc-was-to-go-ahead-now-not-going-ahead.405234/
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