Fertiliser Price Tracker

jackrussell101

Member
Mixed Farmer
I would agree. But I think farmers are worried because the futures prices don't reflect that at the moment. This time next year they probably will.....but it's a big risk to take when the signal isn't there yet.

I think that the choice would be much easier if there was no fertiliser available to buy, rather than it's a record high price. Everyone would be in the same boat with no control so no mental torment.
This is the heart of the matter.

It's a massive spin of the roulette wheel.
 

som farmer

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
somerset
I would agree. But I think farmers are worried because the futures prices don't reflect that at the moment. This time next year they probably will.....but it's a big risk to take when the signal isn't there yet.

I think that the choice would be much easier if there was no fertiliser available to buy, rather than it's a record high price. Everyone would be in the same boat with no control so no mental torment.
surprises me futures are not higher. Whatever the outcome of the war, Ukrainian grain is not going to feature on the mkt, for 2 years, its a complete mess, and infrastructure has been seriously damaged, that will take time to sort out. Russian grain, will be displaced to different mkts, if embargoes are still in place. You simply cannot remove the amount of grain, that Ukraine produced, from the market place, without causing shortages, 20%+ world wheat supply, comes from there, its a huge amount.
If less fert has been used, there will be not be a huge reduction, of yield, yet, a lot of crops are already, and approaching harvest, its the following of those crops, that will have the effect.
And of course, politicians won't want 'scary' forward prices.

Farming has come to a 'crunch' time, rising demand, rising input costs, are not reflected in current, or future mkts. Farmers cannot produce product, if the price they receive, does not factor those increases in, that's just obvious, to farmers, to politicians, it doesn't appear to be.
And, there are no alternatives to ag product, whether fruit, corn or animal, they have to be produced, whatever the costs, otherwise, people starve.

Anybody listening to news channels, are repeatedly hearing about food inflation, warnings are there. Farmers will get the blame, we always do, but, this shortage, is entirely politically caused, successive guvs, from many countries, have actively followed/promoted cheap food policies, in fairness, policy worked. Until, a pandemic, massive rise in energy costs, and war, have screwed the production, and global trade chains.

Until now, that is, Its where politicians want to go, from here, production costs, are such, that without raising prices, production will fall. You have a very large, vocal, and powerful lobby of climate change followers, their policy, is to remove many 'things' that allow cheap food production, input costs are rising, war etc, are all negatives to increased production. So politicians have to decide what they want, knowing whatever they do, will be unpopular with large sections of society. No doubt it will be a buggers muddle, but they have no option, but to increase production, and it is only us, that can actually do that, a very strong hand,
 
Talking to the scrap man yesterday , he thought no fert use would be a good idea , people have no idea .
Is it any surprise?
The media is full of “taking care of the environment “ type stuff.
Intensive and fertiliser equals bad, organic equals good.
They don’t want to pay a premium of course but if farmers had no other option they believe it would be good although no doubt would complain most loudly when they find it comes at a cost
 

hally

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
cumbria
Is it any surprise?
The media is full of “taking care of the environment “ type stuff.
Intensive and fertiliser equals bad, organic equals good.
They don’t want to pay a premium of course but if farmers had no other option they believe it would be good although no doubt would complain most loudly when they find it comes at a cost
I am of an opinion that now the government has decided to stop ag support then it’s about time we all produced less and drove a bit of demand into the market. They have all stuck two fingers up at farmers so it’s about time we stopped working our arses off to produce cheap food and throttled back until they come to us and rewarded us appropriately to produce more. Look the price of cars, fuel etc when supply is cut. I will be taking off 10% of stock this year.
 

ajd132

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Suffolk
I am of an opinion that now the government has decided to stop ag support then it’s about time we all produced less and drove a bit of demand into the market. They have all stuck two fingers up at farmers so it’s about time we stopped working our arses off to produce cheap food and throttled back until they come to us and rewarded us appropriately to produce more. Look the price of cars, fuel etc when supply is cut. I will be taking off 10% of stock this year.
Farmers have been treated like mugs from every angle for so long, but we’ve been given money so it’s just about manageable.
In the new world farmers need to get strong, aggressive and more commercial.
this includes against the chemical/input supply cartels - a very dubious and shady business ran by a few companies with no competition in the market.
mills/malsters/processors need to stop messing around, update their infrastructure or there will be no tasc bulk lorries left, all this stuff of keeping lorries in queue for 5 hours then shutting at 2.30 pm needs to stop. stuff like being forced to dry to 14.5% and then they instantly wet it up to 16% is thievery.

we need aggressive leadership to stop us being the whipping boy squeezed from every angle. Doing competitive and strong business with all these companies and sectors within the chain is great and important but at the moment we really are bottom of the pile due to incredibly weak industry leadership.
 

Renaultman

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Darlington
I would agree. But I think farmers are worried because the futures prices don't reflect that at the moment. This time next year they probably will.....but it's a big risk to take when the signal isn't there yet.

I think that the choice would be much easier if there was no fertiliser available to buy, rather than it's a record high price. Everyone would be in the same boat with no control so no mental torment.
I don't get this, prices are up by pretty much £100/t, granted fertiliser is up by £500.00/t (assuming you were paying high 200s and can now buy at high 7s) Working on your bog standard 35.5% N and using 650kg product on a wheat crop/ha your N costs will go up by £325, but at 3t/acre (7.5t/ha) your income will go up by £750, granted there are a lot of other increased costs but life isn't really all doom and gloom agriculturally IMHO.
 
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BenAdamsAgri

Member
BASE UK Member
Location
Oxfordshire
I don't get this, prices are up by pretty much £100/t, granted fertiliser is up by £500.00/t (assuming you were paying high 200s and can now by at high 7s) Working on your blog standard 35.5% N and using 650kg product on a wheat crop/ha your costs N costs will go up by £325 but at 3t/acre (7.5t/ha) your income will go up by £750, granted there are a lot of other increased costs but life isn't really all doom and gloom agriculturally IMHO.
Its not the margins that are the main issue, its being able to withstand the stretched cashflow from the increased prices throughout the year
 

Chuckie

Member
Location
England
I don't get this, prices are up by pretty much £100/t, granted fertiliser is up by £500.00/t (assuming you were paying high 200s and can now by at high 7s) Working on your blog standard 35.5% N and using 650kg product on a wheat crop/ha your costs N costs will go up by £325 but at 3t/acre (7.5t/ha) your income will go up by £750, granted there are a lot of other increased costs but life isn't really all doom and gloom agriculturally IMHO.

It is if you are buying cereals to feed hens/pigs/cattle etc
 

David.

Member
Mixed Farmer
Location
J11 M40
I know it's a bit secondhand, but I was told this week that Poland have 14m tons of old crop wheat in store, ie about the same as our total production.
I think there will be a lot of international political pressure to get prices down as soon as possible, and you don't want to be pinched in the middle if they succeed.
It is only farmers who want to see £300/t.
 

hally

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
cumbria
Farmers have been treated like mugs from every angle for so long, but we’ve been given money so it’s just about manageable.
In the new world farmers need to get strong, aggressive and more commercial.
this includes against the chemical/input supply cartels - a very dubious and shady business ran by a few companies with no competition in the market.
mills/malsters/processors need to stop messing around, update their infrastructure or there will be no tasc bulk lorries left, all this stuff of keeping lorries in queue for 5 hours then shutting at 2.30 pm needs to stop. stuff like being forced to dry to 14.5% and then they instantly wet it up to 16% is thievery.

we need aggressive leadership to stop us being the whipping boy squeezed from every angle. Doing competitive and strong business with all these companies and sectors within the chain is great and important but at the moment we really are bottom of the pile due to incredibly weak industry leadership.
Well said 👏
 

som farmer

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
somerset
It's neither , it's the uncertainty , what if Vlad decides to flood the world with wheat .
its banned, embargo etc, you don't mean some countries would break that, do you ......................
the only good thing about this war, so far, is the Russian army is buggered, take years to re build all the kit the Ukrainians have liquidised.
One could of expected a better performance, apparently corruption, is nearly as bad as the EU.
If the price of scrap iron goes up, they have so much, it will pay for a lot of damages.
 

SFI - What % were you taking out of production?

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Red Tractor drops launch of green farming scheme amid anger from farmers

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As reported in Independent


quote: “Red Tractor has confirmed it is dropping plans to launch its green farming assurance standard in April“

read the TFF thread here: https://thefarmingforum.co.uk/index.php?threads/gfc-was-to-go-ahead-now-not-going-ahead.405234/
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