Combinables Price Tracker

GeorgeK · May 14, 2022

MX7 said:
Slightly off topic.
Whatever situation would the world food supply be,in if mankind had to rely on Organic Farming to feed the planet?
The principle of Organic may be a good ethos, but mankind can’t eat principles and ethos’s.

Similar to Sri Lanka after they banned artificial fert. They kind of had to because they couldn't afford to import it any more but regardless they've gone from mostly self sufficient to starving.

In Sri Lanka, Organic Farming Went Catastrophically Wrong

A nationwide experiment is abandoned after producing only misery.

foreignpolicy.com

goodevans · May 14, 2022

3 loads loaded today and tipped of June contract wheat into Sun Valley if that tells you anything

Chris W · May 14, 2022

Humble Village Farmer said:
Can you think of a cheaper more versatile foodstuff to replace it with.

That would still only be 50p per kilo, so 20 or 30p to make a large loaf of bread.

Potatoes

robbie · May 14, 2022

Thoroughly peed I bit on selling some June wheat last Wednesday

Humble Village Farmer · May 14, 2022

Chris W said:
Potatoes

They don't store and transport so easily though.

Hindsight · May 14, 2022

Humble Village Farmer said:
Ok so 13 chickens to lay a dozen eggs X 125g a day makes 1.6kg. Say 50p a kilo, feed cost therefore 81p per dozen. So I would say it means about 40p in increased feed costs.

You can work out the increased cost of production for chickens.

I saw eggs in the co-op a couple of weeks ago for over £5 a dozen.

There would also be eggs a lot cheaper. High prices in shops destroy high price brands. Organic sandal principles may wane if less disposable cash. Led to the rise of Aldi post 2008.

More to life · May 14, 2022

India have banned all wheat exports

Clive · May 14, 2022

goodevans said:
If no physical wheat was traded it boggles my mind where that 160k has come from

boggles but it happens !

Clive · May 14, 2022

Oilseed said:
Thank you, I believe options normally get cheaper nearer to the time the option expires?

I never hear much about them now, they used to be very popular 20 years ago.

time / price volatility determine the price - best viewed as a insurance premium on minimum price imo than a trade to be on from

very useful, very underused (by farmers) tool

Bossfarmer · May 14, 2022

More to life said:
India have banned all wheat exports

will that already be priced into the futures? noticed theyve went up a fair bit this week

teslacoils · May 14, 2022

Bossfarmer said:
will that already be priced into the futures? noticed theyve went up a fair bit this week

No.

yellow belly · May 14, 2022

Renaultman said:
I know it won't happen this year, but marketing is equally as important as growing the stuff. Anyone who hasn't got any sold forward at these current high prices, is as much of a gambler as the man who commits 4t/acre.

Selling forward is fine when prices are high
but this time last year they were high relative to previous years but were
£190 off the top
crops never looked that good in May and then the dull June made things worse
uk stocks were at their lowest which everyone knew
and forward futures prices were below export prices

even at 320 forward prices uk new crop assumes we have to export
every growing region has weather issues drought or too wet
with out Ukraine the world would be short of grain due to weather

if as an individual uk farmer you sell forward and yields turn out lower the income per acre is much lower
if yield turn out higher the extra yield make up for lower export prices and reasonable income per acre

yellow belly · May 14, 2022

Bossfarmer said:
will that already be priced into the futures? noticed theyve went up a fair bit this week

Since April India was not expected to export much
backin februarry they were expected to have 15 million tonnnes ( harvest now sub 90 million tonnes wheat )

india do have a good stock level of rice

There are no areas of the world without weather problems except possibly russia /Ukraine

4course · May 14, 2022

teslacoils said:
No.

im of a different view , reckon trade new what was coming its us the producer that are behind the curve

teslacoils · May 14, 2022

4course said:
im of a different view , reckon trade new what was coming its us the producer that are behind the curve

Thursday's USDA report had India as a major exporter of 10m tons. That's what they put out in the widely followed wsde report.

SilliamWhale · May 14, 2022

farmerm said:
it means more than 30p for a chicken or a dozen eggs....

Sod all

Clive · May 14, 2022

SilliamWhale said:
Sod all

if netflix subscription went up a couple £’s per month i doubt it would make the news or cause panic

but those pesky farmers asking to at least cover costs ? ………. how dare they !

Pilatus · May 14, 2022

Clive said:
if netflix subscription went up a couple £’s per month i doubt it would make the news or cause panic

but those pesky farmers asking to at least cover costs ? ………. how dare they !

Spot on . Sad how society has got their priorities wrong in times of plenty

But what do us TFF members know

Pilatus · May 14, 2022

Out of interest do any of you that follow this thread/sticky have broiler production/ pig enterprises that are viable or unviable, depending on the price of cereals.
It’s difficult to be on both sides of the fence in business..

Renaultman · May 15, 2022

MX7 said:
Out of interest do any of you that follow this thread/sticky have broiler production/ pig enterprises that are viable or unviable, depending on the price of cereals.
It’s difficult to be on both sides of the fence in business..

No but I work for a local pig producer and also, along with a lot of neighbours, sell grain to them. I am very well aware that we need them to make money for me to. No ideas of current figures and I wouldn't dare to ask, being a big arable operation and having everything else in house I would assume they aren't doing as badly as some but it depends how you work your figures out.

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100% I’ve had enough of farming!

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