Fertiliser Price Tracker

bankrupt · May 16, 2022

teslacoils said:
Nah.

county down said:
who thinks wheat futures will rise 20 pound a ton tomorrow

Nov '22 currently up £14.70

UK (ICE) Feed Wheat	£/tonne
May 22	351.80 (unch)
Jul 22	347.60 (unch)
Nov 22	351.00 (+14.70)
Jan 23	338.70 (unch)
Mar 23	340.40 (unch)
May 23	342.30 (unch)
Jul 23	316.85 (unch)
Nov 23	286.80 (unch)
Jan 24	287.75 (unch)
Mar 24	289.25 (unch)

By close of trading should be able to get £300 for Jan '24 - at which point it's time to fill your boots up to the your '23 costs for AN.

teslacoils · May 16, 2022

Sorry, I was expecting it to go up but not this much. I had it marked down at around £8 a ton. Ive not checked how this is altering ex farm prices as Im holding all next years grain until May or June 23.

EddieB · May 16, 2022

Well I have dipped my toe in the water with one load of urea at 738/t. I thought fertiliser was expensive until I had a quote for a new tractor this morning.

teslacoils · May 16, 2022

EddieB said:
Well I have dipped my toe in the water with one load of urea at 738/t. I thought fertiliser was expensive until I had a quote for a new tractor this morning.

It must be going down a touch then if it was £745 then £740 and now £738. Which is a good thing.

EddieB · May 16, 2022

teslacoils said:
It must be going down a touch then if it was £745 then £740 and now £738. Which is a good thing.

I had been quoted 750 elsewhere this morning.

snipe · May 16, 2022

I can’t get a price for 34.5N, blue bag or imported. Asked buying group and origins.

Devon Gurfallo · May 16, 2022

snipe said:
I can’t get a price for 34.5N, blue bag or imported. Asked buying group and origins.

I think all nitram c.f. Allocated to supplier was sold on first day. You will properly have to wait till new terms are released.

A1baz · May 16, 2022

bankrupt said:
Nov '22 currently up £14.70

UK (ICE) Feed Wheat £/tonne
May 22 351.80 (unch)
Jul 22 347.60 (unch)
Nov 22 351.00 (+14.70)
Jan 23 338.70 (unch)
Mar 23 340.40 (unch)
May 23 342.30 (unch)
Jul 23 316.85 (unch)
Nov 23 286.80 (unch)
Jan 24 287.75 (unch)
Mar 24 289.25 (unch)

By close of trading should be able to get £300 for Jan '24 - at which point it's time to fill your boots up to the your '23 costs for AN.

I had a load away for December this morning. £346 which is a smidge over £10K a load. Told myself when it reaches that, it’s worth a nibble, no matter how many time my Grandad tells me not to sell any forward

Happy · May 16, 2022

Devon Gurfallo said:
I think all nitram c.f. Allocated to supplier was sold on first day. You will properly have to wait till new terms are released.

Same with Yara.
One very large merchant only allocated 10 loads of prilled N and 1 load of Axan to sell on Friday.
Merchants supposed to be getting told today on fresh prices and allocations but I expect todays grain price jump will have Yara/CF rethinking how much more they can squeeze out of us.

yellow belly · May 16, 2022

if they push it too far and grain prices keep rising planting a crop with no fertiliser or only half normal could make a big profit
any extra grain could just incur more work and higher taxes

redsloe · May 16, 2022

yellow belly said:
if they push it too far and grain prices keep rising planting a crop with no fertiliser or only half normal could make a big profit
any extra grain could just incur more work and higher taxes

Hilarious, in one week its gone from taking a holiday as the numbers don't stack up with high fertiliser prices to putting on less to avoid higher taxes!

What a marvellous thing this forum is!

Tarw Coch · May 16, 2022

redsloe said:
Hilarious, in one week its gone from taking a holiday as the numbers don't stack up with high fertiliser prices to putting on less to avoid higher taxes!

What a marvellous thing this forum is!

Sounds marvellous for arable farmers, the livestock men might not see it quite the same.
Could well see the livestock sector cutting back on feed and hence demand and some looking at growing at least some of their own.

B'o'B · May 16, 2022

Tarw Coch said:
Sounds marvellous for arable farmers, the livestock men might not see it quite the same.
Could well see the livestock sector cutting back on feed and hence demand and some looking at growing at least some of their own.

I can’t see anything but demand distribution at the minute with the disparity between what is happening with arable prices and livestock prices.
As an arable farmer I may be looking at have a great year, but if the result is there is no livestock industry left in the UK where do I stand then? Not in a great place is my feeling.
It’s a very strange feeling being worried about further price rises! These surely are crazy times.

bobk · May 16, 2022

B'o'B said:
I can’t see anything but demand distribution at the minute with the disparity between what is happening with arable prices and livestock prices.
As an arable farmer I may be looking at have a great year, but if the result is there is no livestock industry left in the UK where do I stand then? Not in a great place is my feeling.
It’s a very strange feeling being worried about further price rises! These surely are crazy times.

EU will be propping up farmers to keep their cheap food policy going

yellow belly · May 16, 2022

B'o'B said:
I can’t see anything but demand distribution at the minute with the disparity between what is happening with arable prices and livestock prices.
As an arable farmer I may be looking at have a great year, but if the result is there is no livestock industry left in the UK where do I stand then? Not in a great place is my feeling.
It’s a very strange feeling being worried about further price rises! These surely are crazy times.

Fertilised Egg producer near me for the broiler hatchery is emptying out this week 2 weeks early but restocking in 2 weeks
the last 2 weeks of laying is the most inefficient
chick placing still holding up
importing chicken may be harder than paying uk prices

12 months ago the livestock industry could buy their 2021 2022 feed at under 180

yellow belly · May 16, 2022

bobk said:
EU will be propping up farmers to keep their cheap food policy going

And if our livestock numbers fall we can export grain to the eu

but our supermarkets might find they have to pay a lot more to keep the shelves stocked

flour still on below 2022/3 cost in promotions

bobk · May 16, 2022

yellow belly said:
And if our livestock numbers fall we can export grain to the eu

but our supermarkets might find they have to pay a lot more to keep the shelves stocked

flour still on below 2022/3 cost in promotions

I'm not getting carried away , it's all speculator driven

yellow belly · May 16, 2022

bobk said:
I'm not getting carried away , it's all speculator driven

Without speculators the market would seize up
consumers not buying farmers cannot sell
farmers not selling consumers cannot buy
speculators give the system liquidity and take on the risk

Planet Bee · May 16, 2022

bobk said:
I'm not getting carried away , it's all speculator driven

kind of....more a result of pure supply and demand economics

there are a lot of "fundamental" reasons we're where we are; not least, the Ukraine situation. This has amplified the fuel (gas) picture which was already heated prior Putin's invasion.

add in the weather events and we have the perfect storm

bobk · May 16, 2022

Planet Bee said:
kind of....more a result of pure supply and demand economics

there are a lot of "fundamental" reasons we're where we are; not least, the Ukraine situation. This has amplified the fuel (gas) picture which was already heated prior Putin's invasion.

add in the weather events and we have the perfect storm

I'm struggling to sell last years wheat

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