Livestock Demographic Data Group: Cattle population report

Livestock Demographic Data Group: Cattle population report June 2020

The Livestock Demographic Data Groups (LDDGs) were formed in January 2014 and are comprised of APHA representatives from data, epidemiology, species expert and GIS work groups. The LDDGs are grateful to British Cattle Movement Service (BCMS), IBM and APHA Weybridge Data Systems Group (DSG) staff who handled the Cattle Tracing System (CTS) data and the APHA Rapid Analysis and Detection of Animal Related Risks (RADAR) data warehouse for their assistance in producing this report.

What do the data show about the population?

Figures 1 and 2 show either the density of animals, with a smaller map to show how this compares with the density of holdings, or vice versa. In contrast to other livestock species, there is little difference for cattle between the two distributions. Both the cattle population density and holding maps reflect widespread understanding of the cattle industry demographic. The greatest density of cattle population and holdings is generally on the west side of Great Britain; this includes Ayrshire, Dumfries & Galloway, Cumbria, northwest Midlands, southwest Wales, Devon, Somerset and Cornwall. The areas with the sparsest cattle population and holding densities also reflect general understanding of the cattle industry demographic; these include parts of northwest Scotland and parts of East Anglia. As with Figures 1 and 2, Figures 3 and 4, show population and holding densities across Great Britain.

These however are split into Beef and Dairy cattle distributions and then combined as a single bivariate population density and holdings density map, showing the spatial distribution of the Beef and Dairy industries across GB. Separate Beef and Dairy population and holdings density maps can be seen in Figures 5, 6, 7 and 8. As with the total cattle distributions, the highest densities of both Beef and Dairy population and holdings tend towards the west of Great Britain. Differences in distribution between Beef and Dairy are seen however. In Scotland, for example, Orkney, Caithness, Aberdeenshire, Banffshire, Berwickshire and Roxburgh all show areas of high Beef population density and low Dairy population density. This can also be seen locally in Published 2020 2 northeast England, in Northumberland, Durham and North Yorkshire, as well as Buckinghamshire. Areas with the highest Dairy population density, for example in the southwest peninsula of England, Dyfed, northeast Wales, the northwest Midlands, Lancashire, Cumbria, Dumfries & Galloway and Ayrshire, all coincide with either the highest or moderate densities of Beef cattle. No areas of high Dairy population density are coincident with low Beef population density.

How accurate are the data?

The data are derived from the CTS by analysis of all the reported movements and birth registrations of cattle on and off holdings in Great Britain at 1st July 2019; such information is reported continuously and with a slight delay due to data processing timescales. Thus the data best represent the numbers and locations of cattle in the period up to three months before the date the data were extracted (i.e. 1st April 2019). The output of this analysis is stored in ‘RADAR’, an APHA information management system; where location data are missing in the record due to subsequent updates, RADAR derives this from other information using a ‘best address’ algorithm. Therefore there can be a discrepancy between the ‘RADAR’ location and that provided originally through CTS; 88% of RADAR and CTS locations are within 2km, but notably 3% are > 20km apart. The supporting quality statement provides further detail on the limitations in the data (Annex 1).

What do the data not show?

The population dataset represents a single snapshot in time (as at July 1st 2019). It does not draw out the pattern of movements between cattle herds, or the effect of seasonal breeding on the number of young calves. The representation of the cattle demographic by data from CTS is near complete, but not perfect. A small number of movements are not recorded, either due to non-compliance or are not required to be recorded (for example linked herd movements). However, these are believed to be few and to not significantly impact the data presented. There is uncertainty inherent in the information displayed. Limitations in the dataset are discussed in the supporting quality statement (Annex 1) and it is important that the user considers these in the context of their work. Similarly population and holding density maps are classified to different scales and units; and due care must be taken regarding their interpretation.

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Figure 1: Cattle population density in GB (CTS) with holding density inset

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Figure 2: Cattle holding density in GB (CTS) with population density inset

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Figure 3: Bivariate map showing both Beef and Dairy population density in GB (CTS) with holding density inset

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Figure 4: Bivariate map showing both Beef and Dairy holding density in GB (CTS) with population density inset

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