Trends in Extreme Weather Events in Europe
Implications for national and European Union Adaptation Strategies
Downloads
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EASAC Report on Extreme Weather Events in Europe -
Detailed Extreme Weather Report published by the Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters
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EASAC Extreme Weather Factsheets
Download the EASAC policy report 22
A detailed scientific report on which the EASAC policy report is based, published by the Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters and the Norwegian Meteorological Institute in cooperation with EASAC, is available.
Download a set of fact sheets based on the full science report (published by the Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters and the Norwegian Meteorological Institute in cooperation with EASAC).
EASAC
EASAC – the European Academies Science Advisory Council – is formed by the national science academies of the EU Member States to enable them to collaborate with each other in giving advice to European policy-makers. It thus provides a means for the collective voice of European science to be heard. Its mission reflects the view of academies that science is central to many aspects of modern life and that an appreciation of the scientific dimension is a pre-requisite to wise policy-making. This view already underpins the work of many academies at national level. With the growing importance of the European Union as an arena for policy, academies recognise that the scope of their advisory functions needs to extend beyond the national to cover also the European level. Here it is often the case that a trans-European grouping can be more effective than a body from a single country. The academies of Europe have therefore formed EASAC so that they can speak with a common voice with the goal of building science into policy at EU level. Through EASAC, the academies work together to provide independent, expert, evidence-based advice about the scientific aspects of public policy to those who make or influence policy within the European institutions. Drawing on the memberships and networks of the academies, EASAC accesses the best of European science in carrying out its work. Its views are vigorously independent of commercial or political bias, and it is open and transparent in its processes. EASAC aims to deliver advice that is comprehensible, relevant and timely. EASAC covers all scientific and technical disciplines, and its experts are drawn from all the countries of the European Union. It is funded by the member academies and by contracts with interested bodies. The expert members of EASAC’s working groups give their time free of charge. EASAC has no commercial or business sponsors. EASAC’s activities include substantive studies of the scientific aspects of policy issues, reviews and advice about specific policy documents, workshops aimed at identifying current scientific thinking about major policy issues or at briefing policy-makers, and short, timely statements on topical subjects. The EASAC Council has 28 individual members – highly experienced scientists nominated one each by the national science academies of EU Member States, by the Academia Europaea and by ALLEA. The national science academies of Norway and Switzerland are also represented. The Council is supported by a professional Secretariat based at the Leopoldina, the German National Academy of Sciences, in Halle (Saale) and by a Brussels Office at the Royal Academies for Science and the Arts of Belgium. The Council agrees the initiation of projects, appoints members of working groups, reviews drafts and approves reports for publication. To find out more about EASAC, visit the website – www.easac.eu – or contact the EASAC Secretariat at [email protected]
Foreword
During the past 50 years the global mean temperature at the Earth’s surface has increased by about 0.7 degrees Celsius, very probably contributed to by increased emissions of greenhouse gases. The associated economic and societal risks, the product of probability and consequence, are increasing. As the releases of greenhouse gases and particulate matter related to human activities continue to increase, the demand for action, despite uncertainty, is growing. It is not primarily the change in the mean of climate variables such as temperature, precipitation or wind, or in derived variables like storm surge or water runoff, but rather the changes in the extremes of these variables that pose serious risks. Future extremes could become the most potent drivers of economic and social impacts.
Having said that, the reduction of the factors driving climate change (mitigation) has the benefit of reducing the cost of adaptation. But mitigation and adaptation measures must go hand in hand. Investments must be targeted so that risks are reduced, optimising the cost– benefit relationships between them. This EASAC report summarises an assessment headed up by the Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters and the Norwegian Meteorological Institute in collaboration with EASAC of historic and possible future changes in extreme weather over Europe. It deals with impacts that include heat waves, floods, droughts and storms.
The work, which was completed before the release of the ‘Summary for Policy Makers’ of the 5th Assessment Report from Working Group 1 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, provides expert confirmation from a European perspective. Highlights refer to the nature of the evidence for climate-driven changes in extreme weather in the past, the potential impact of further climate change in altering the pattern of these extremes, and possible adaptation strategies for dealing with extreme weather impacts.
Changes in extreme weather events will, in some cases, present the European Union and its Member States with significant challenges. For example, increases in drought, linked to increases in wind storms, are expected to impact agricultural productivity. Agriculture has considerable adaptive capability, but investment will be needed which will add to the costs of agricultural production. Such investment demands careful planning and the best possible understanding of the future conditions to ensure that plantbreeding programmes, for example, are well targeted.
The EASAC Working Group has taken care to differentiate between what is known to a high level of confidence and what experts are less certain about, and to give information about the degree of precision that we can attribute to the advice for adaptation to extreme weather and climate change. The target group of this report is policy-makers and politicians in European institutions who are committed to the construction and implementation of evidence-based policies. EASAC intends that this report will contribute to the debate about the impacts of future extreme weather on the peoples and economies of Europe and reinforce many of the messages broadcast by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
We thank the EASAC working group chaired by Professor Øystein Hov for its expert deliberations and for its detailed full report, Professor Lars Walløe for stimulating this work in the first place, the Norwegian Academy of Sciences for leading this EASAC activity and contributing to the costs of the work, and Professor Michael Norton for assembling the EASAC document. We are indebted to EASAC member academies for all their input and to the peer reviewers and assistants who worked to ensure that this report is as accurate, complete and accessible as possible.
Professor Sir Brian Heap
EASAC President
