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  1. AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds

    Will the UK wheat discount to Paris grow further in 2022/23?

    With the strong potential of increased domestic availability for the 2022/23 marketing year, could UK feed wheat futures be at a greater discount to Paris milling wheat futures? Or are there other factors that could change this? Although UK ex-farm values are ultimately driven by the global...
  2. AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds

    UK grain trade, domestic wheat balance easing but barley tight

    HMRC have now released their latest data for UK trade numbers, as up to April. In line with the May supply and demand estimates, a change in trade dynamics and market volatility since the outbreak of war between Russia and Ukraine, appears to have impacted on UK grain import and export trade...
  3. AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds

    What could happen to delivered premiums going forward?

    Throughout this marketing year, delivered premiums in the North on average have been at their highest in comparison to the previous few years. At the beginning of February, wheat for spot+1 delivery into North Humberside reached a £24.25/t premium over nearby UK feed wheat futures. Demand in...
  4. AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds

    What could our wheat production be this harvest?

    Time seems to come around fast, but next month, parts of England could start harvesting 2022 crops weather allowing. After a dry April, the wetter May that we have had in parts of GB over the last month could possibly bring plenty of corn and hay this harvest. Sunshine hours this month too are...
  5. AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds

    How much wheat is leaving the Black Sea?

    UN talks with Russia to resume Ukrainian grain shipments, by lifting blockades on ports, continue to pressure global grain prices. The market sees some glimmer of hope that more Ukrainian grain may be accessible onto the global market. Yesterday, President Putin said that Russia is ready to...
  6. AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds

    UK wheat balance eases while barley remains tight

    This morning, AHDB released its latest UK cereal supply and demand estimates for 2021/22. Since the previous forecasts in March, changing trade dynamics and increased market volatility have impacted import and export forecasts for most commodities, as alluded to in yesterday’s Grain Market...
  7. AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds

    UK trade, shifting the balance of domestic S&D?

    Tomorrow, the latest 2021/22 UK cereals supply and demand estimates will be published. Ahead of this, I will be looking at HMRC trade data season-to-date headline figures. With tight domestic grain supply and demand, can an updated view of trade alter this balance? Wheat imports strong Wheat...
  8. AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds

    How are margins looking for harvests’ 22 and 23?

    We are fast approaching harvest 22 and looking now to harvest 23 for cropping decisions, but the cost and margin picture looks very different to this time last year. UK feed wheat new crop futures (Nov-22) closed yesterday at £340.10/t. This is almost double the price from this time last year...
  9. AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds

    US crop condition report adding to supply concerns

    New crop wheat futures hit contract highs yesterday, with Monday’s USDA crop progress report adding to supply worries that have been increasingly growing in recent weeks. For the week ending 15 May, just 27% of the US winter wheat crop was rated good-excellent. This was back 2 percentage points...
  10. AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds

    Production impacts from reduced nitrogen fertiliser strategies

    High input costs are front and foremost of growers minds. UK produced Ammonium Nitrate (AN) increased 182% between Jun-21 and Mar-22, to a price of £839.00/t. With the outlook for natural gas prices (the feed stock for AN) well supported, driven by the war in Ukraine, it is well to assume that...
  11. AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds

    Don’t let your profits dry out

    Don’t let your profits dry out We are facing a high price but high-cost climate currently, which we discussed in our recent Spring Grain Market Outlook. The inputs into making your crop saleable (such as the cost of drying) should not be overlooked. Gas oil and kerosene prices have risen...
  12. AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds

    The bullish tone continues for the oilseed complex

    The bullish tone continues for the oilseed complex Yesterday, Millie brought you a round up for the outlook for global and domestic grains, following Tuesday’s Spring Grain Market Outlook webinar. Today it’s the turn of oilseeds. The global outlook Overall, the picture is pretty bullish. For...
  13. AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds

    Spring Grain Market Outlook roundup

    Yesterday we held our AHDB Spring Grain Market Outlook webinar. If you missed this, don’t worry! Some key messages are summarised below. You can also watch the recording too, using the video link. Market outlook remains bullish for cereals and oilseeds There may be little surprise that we are...
  14. AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds

    UK wheat price volatility continues

    Yesterday, UK feed wheat futures followed Paris wheat futures down after the bank holiday. This was due to profit-taking, considering prices are at historic highs. Paris milling wheat (May-22) fell €1.50/t to close at €399.50/t (£331.41/t). New-crop futures (Dec-22) fell €2.00/t to close at...
  15. AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds

    The Sustainable Farming Incentive

    Farmers in England are experiencing probably the most rapid period of change that any of us have known since accession to the EU back in 1973. With the removal of Direct Payments, and the phasing in of the Environmental Land Management Scheme (ELMS), farm businesses will need to change and...
  16. AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds

    New crop discount diminishing as focus turns to harvest 2022

    Both old (May-22) and new crop (Nov-22) UK feed wheat futures closed at new contract highs again yesterday at £322/t and £293/t respectively. The discount between new and old crop prices now stands at £29/t. Only just over a month ago (7 March) the gap between the two contracts stood at a...
  17. AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds

    US weather watching

    The outlook for the 2022/23 maize supply looks to depend on how much is planted in Ukraine and the US, as two key global exporters. Plantings are due to begin this month (April) for both countries, and so the market will eagerly await insight into planting progress. Rain in the eastern maize...
  18. AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds

    A month of large volatility for oil and oilseeds

    The month of March has brought change and volatility to the vegetable oil and oilseed complex. Throughout March, the May-22 Paris rapeseed futures contract has closed in a range of €190.75/t. The contract peaked at €994.50/t on 22 March. These high prices have provided support for domestic old...
  19. AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds

    Strengthened sterling stalls price push in line with Paris

    Markets have been very sensitive to new news in recent weeks, with escalations in Ukraine providing underlying support. Increased sanctions on Russia from the West, coupled with poorer than expected US crop conditions have heightened supply concerns. In turn, this offered extra support to grain...
  20. AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds

    USDA crop conditions – more woes for wheat?

    Yesterday, the USDA released their first crop progress report for 2022. Crop conditions failed to impress, falling below the lowest trade estimates. Just 30% of US winter wheat was rated in good-excellent condition. Last year, at the same point, 53% of the crop was good-excellent. We have to...
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