for context, India has bought roughly 5.6 million tonnes this year
90,000mt (<2%) of which came from Egypt which has an annual production capacity of around 7 million tonnes
my concern would be the logistical time that it takes to ship, bag, treat with inhibitor (where necessary) and despatch...
good news!
the Tamar gas field (off of the Israeli coast, not near Plymouth) is back on-stream and supplying Egyptian Urea producers
there're some technical reasons why two producers will be slower returning to full production but otherwise, back to "normal" levels
again, don't shoot the...
The Israeli Tamar gas field is now offline. It supplies Egypt with 1/3rd of its natural gas.
Today, Egypt’s Gasco informed their Urea producers to expect supply disruption. Two producers are 100% offline and the remainder running at 60-70% rates.
Don’t shoot the messenger…
and this is the solution?
To achieve greater transparency, suppliers must publish fertiliser prices 'immediately' to help farm businesses plan for next year’s crop.
In my experience, there's always a price on offer that typically reflects the cost of replacement; it's rare that there's not a...
FOB Egypt levels had already risen following the Egyptian governments calling producers to reduce output by 30%. That likely means Granular Urea prices going north of £400/mt onto farm.
the grain corridor closing only adds fuel to the bullish tone
From what I heard, the local AN producer also...
every call I received today was referencing force majeure clauses. Good job that the DCTS allows duty free access to non-Egyptian Urea sources
be careful what you wish for!
Urea equivalent at £460; I'm pretty sure it's cheaper than that today?
According to the AHDB dataset, the point at which N applications to cereals should be reduced would be around £340 for AN and £450 for Urea
Still plenty of time in hand but worth looking at both sides to the equation
good observation on the local gas markets
However, it's not relevant for the UK's domestic producer, nor ~50% of the EU manufacturers. They've not produced NH3 for some time now and have relied upon importing it (ammonia) instead of cooking it here using relatively expensive regional gas...
A little cynical but...probably!
Putting the emotion to one side, I'm a big advocate of looking at the value rather than price.
The manufacturer would have made massive investments and has plenty of variables to consider when selling forward. Big risk; big reward.
The importer, as mentioned...
I'm guessing somebody got out of bed on the wrong side or simply doesn't understand how a supply chain works?
Putting tin hat on (again) in 5....4....3...2...
According to several sources, the UK’s US-owned domestic AN producer managed to sell their entire production of around 10-12kt per week, through to October - maybe beyond.
A stroke of genius on their behalf, if true, to sell so much into a bearish market.
Current global Granular Urea prices...
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