£200 wheat before Christmas?

[bankrupt]

I think we will see £100 wheat before we see £200 wheat.

Less mad, now.

 

[4course]

xmas 2017, will the 200 be reached ,at over 140 last week it was higher than most thought before harvest

 

[Farmer T]

I think the pound/euro and Brexit situation will affect the prices in 17 more than supply and demand I'm afraid to say.

I'm afraid because I haven't a clue which way any of the above will go!

 

[Condi]

xmas 2017, will the 200 be reached ,at over 140 last week it was higher than most thought before harvest

Still closer to £100 than £200. Suspect the Euro is more likely to go tits up than the UK economy.

 

[glasshouse]

Australia has just cut their biggest ever wheat crop, due to very wet yr.
prices more likely to fall

 

[Flintstone]

We will see wheat at between £100 and £140 for the next 18 months at least imho.

I just can't understand why more aren't selling at the current £130 with the 2017 N fert costs being where they are, autumn down crops looking good, and the recent BPS being higher than most had budgeted for.

Everything points towards a rickety market with the £/€ looking like it's the only thing in our wheat price's favour. Unless China are blatantly lying, world stocks are bigger than ever and the recent Australian bumper crop won't help matters one bit.

It's worth though looking at some of the spring barley offers at the moment too. Harvest 17 and 18 are offering some nice prices that guarantee a decent margin even with mediocre yields.

£200 for wheat will come again. It might be in three years, it might be in 30 years. But having a marketing policy of 'trying to sell as close to £200 as possible', and being prepared to risk a medium sized profit when holding out for a big one is a strategy I can't get my head around, especially as when mega prices do eventually return, the market carry will also offer a steamy price for the following year too.

 

[shakerator]

xmas 2017, will the 200 be reached ,at over 140 last week it was higher than most thought before harvest

Yes I believe we will hit £200 but by end of 2018

 

[Condi]

Yes I believe we will hit £200 but by end of 2018

Is there any logic or reasoning behind that or is it just 'hope'?

I'd love to know why you think it will be worth that?

 

[Heathland]

@Flintstone
I've never be one for selling forward,especially S malting barley,but this year I have done 60%Jan/Mar 18,also I've done a couple of loads for Jan/Mar 19,the amount of spring crops going in around me,and the price on offer, its a no brainer.

 

[shakerator]

Is there any logic or reasoning behind that or is it just 'hope'?

I'd love to know why you think it will be worth that?

I'm bearish on the buying power of all currencies going forward. Of course it could take 2 years or 20 .

Inflation , so the £200/t may buy you less than £140 does now.

Nothing really to do with stocks to use or anything fundamental s&d

Just an opinion on the long term consequences of QE once financial assets become less supported.

 

[Sandy]

@Flintstone
I've never be one for selling forward,especially S malting barley,but this year I have done 60%Jan/Mar 18,also I've done a couple of loads for Jan/Mar 19,the amount of spring crops going in around me,and the price on offer, its a no brainer.

Being nosey but what kind of a price £150/t?

 

[Heathland]

Being nosey but what kind of a price £150/t?

Yes,but its gone now,at least its put a floor in now.

 

[Sandy]

Yes,but its gone now,at least its put a floor in now.

How do you mean gone?

 

[Heathland]

How do you mean gone?

When I spoke to my grain trader just before christmas they had pull the price and £150 wasn't available.
Not unless you know someone still paying £150 for that forward position.
I am talking S/barley here.

 

[Sandy]

When I spoke to my grain trader just before christmas they had pull the price and £150 wasn't available.
Not unless you know someone still paying £150 for that forward position.
I am talking S/barley here.

Our contracts are £20+ Nov wheat

 

[Brisel]

Futures or ex farm? What spec?

 

[Chae1]

Our contracts are £20+ Nov wheat

So you could have fixed at £161?

£159 was my highest I've fixed for this year's harvest.

 

[Sandy]

So you could have fixed at £161?

£159 was my highest I've fixed for this year's harvest.

£160.50 but not enough at that figure.