2019 could be another dry summer?

Goweresque

Member
Location
North Wilts
Long range models are beginning to suggest that summer of 2019 could be drier than average. Given that summer 2018 was almost identical in rainfall to the summer of 1975, what odds that 2019 could be as bad as '76?
 

Goweresque

Member
Location
North Wilts
Hope not, its now drying as fast as it falls(well almost). To buy in hay/silage would be expensive in the next 12mths. Normal would be just fine.

You should be fine for rain, even a bit oversupplied, if the forecasts are right, it suggesting low pressure towards the Med, so more rain there, high pressure over the UK further north, so drier there.
 
Location
sh!t creek
The canal next to us is so low for time of year, but there’s little or no water from land drains running into it.
All the talk is of this year being a 1976 summer, just glad we’re not at same Farm we were back then ?
 

Kiwi Pete

Member
Livestock Farmer
We've had very similar to last year but it's been two months later than last year... and still counting.
Last year it was dry from Oct thru to the start of Feb, this time we had a lifesaver in November but very little since, after a dry winter many are gasping for moisture - and likely the cold will come first.
I destocked early with the idea we'd have another crack later on, which is looking good (y)
 
Been soil sampling across N Northumberland and Scottish Borders and soil is amazingly dry for this time of year even on moorland.
Streams are low so if it dries up like last year there will be a lot of water haulage for stock again. We didn't have the very high temperatures in the south and the west either.
Had 18.5" calendar year against usual 24 -26".
So far this year had 5mm January, 14mm February however in our now normal winter month of March have had 50mm till yesterday and now 2" of snow.
I always work on the old English New Year (new crop year) of 25th March so record annual rainfall !st April to 31st March.
Still to get a lot of rain in next two weeks to get near average.
 

DeeGee

Member
Location
North East Wales
Who's been reading the Daily Express again? Respected weather people will say 'you can't predict more than a week of weather'.

Yep, whatever the Express headlines scream at the public the chances are our weather here will be totally and utterly different.

They have been predicting Arctic winters most years for as long as I can recall; and almost every week one or more of the tabloids will be promising some sort of ‘Big freeze on the way!’ and ‘Temperatures to plummet below zero within days as Arctic conditions set to grip the UK!’
 

balerman

Member
Location
N Devon
A lot of the old amateur forecasters use the weather leading up to the quarter days as an indicator of the following season,one I know of had at least an 80% success rate .This next week should see rising pressure leading up to the spring equinox,which is a big change from the last fortnight so going by this method the first half of summer at least could well be dry...
 
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