29th March Britain leaves EU

Hindsight

Member
Location
Lincolnshire
When it comes to trade in services, leaving the Single Market will result in increased regulatory costs and could have significant effects on the volume and composition of UK services exports, writes Olga Pindyuk.

In the Brexit debate, trade in services has been largely overlooked in favour of trade in goods. This is despite the UK being the second biggest exporter of services in the world and having one of the highest shares in total exports among leading economies (Figure 1). Moreover, the EU is a major market for UK services, having accounted for about 49% of the country’s total services exports in 2017.



When talking about sector specialisation of services exporters, London as the UK’s financial hub comes to mind. But the UK is competitive in a broad range of services, with ‘other business services’ – a combination of legal, accounting, management consulting, and public relations services – being most prominent in cross-border trade, having accounted for 33.5% of the sector’s total exports in 2016 according to WTO data. The second biggest subsector is architectural, engineering, scientific, and other technical services (14.6%), followed by advertising, market research, and public opinion polling services (10.1%). In the transport sector, air transport accounts for almost two-thirds of exports.



As a member of the Single Market, the UK has access to a market of over 500 million consumers, to the free flow of data between EU members, and to passporting rights, which allow financial companies to sell services in any EU country without having to set up a branch there. In other words, the Single Market allows the UK to supply more services through cross-border trade rather than through costly commercial presence. Passporting rights are also a very important reason why the UK has been used as an EU base by US and Japanese financial firms.

Important for the professional services sector is also the free movement of people. For example, UK companies can employ European staff in the UK or send their workers on trips to the EU to consult clients, provide technical support to users of their products, broker and draft contracts, and so on. As migration concerns were crucial for the Brexit vote, movement restrictions are probably the most binding constraint on the government, making free movement unlikely to be a part of any deal, which significantly limits the options available for the services trade.

If the UK opts for a divorce that precludes it from participation in the Single Market in services, it will inevitably face increased regulatory costs: relevant providers in the UK will face heterogenous regulations in each Member State, which implies an increase in trading costs. With a rise in cross-border trade barriers there would also be a relative increase in the proportion of services provided via a more costly commercial presence within the EU. The process has already started due to the political uncertainty that has surrounded Brexit since 2016, and has so far been most visible in the financial sector where more than 250 firms have moved or are moving business elsewhere.

The biggest losses would take place if the country crashed out of the EU without any agreement and had to trade with the bloc on WTO terms, which envisage a very limited scope of liberalisation under the General Agreement on Trade in Services. Even concluding a free trade agreement with the EU will result in a significant rise in the barriers to services trade – the EU’s recent agreement with South Korea and Japan, for example, does not address regulatory issues around authorisations and licensing, with processes varying between Member States.

It is nonetheless possible that Brexit could result in more advanced services liberalisation than previous EU agreements. But in order to achieve this, any preferential access to the EU market that the UK might seek will need to be part of a comprehensive agreement, otherwise the EU may be obliged to extend more favourable conditions to its other trading partners according to the most favoured nation principle. Politically feasible options of such an agreement are deals similar to the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement or CETA+, which offer limited scope of liberalisation. The UK could possibly secure mutual recognition that would cover some professional qualifications and licensing for various sectors. Still, the scope of a deal will most likely be limited.

Comparison of the values of the OECD Services Trade Restriction Index for intra- and extra-EEA trade (Figure 2) shows that countries outside the Single Market face the highest barriers to trade with EEA members in air transport and a range of professional services: legal, accounting, architecture, and engineering. It is in these sectors that the UK is likely to experience the highest increase in trade costs.



The US is the most important market for UK services exporters outside the EU (20.5% of total services exports in 2017), but substantial reorientation of British services exports to this and other non-EU markets is unlikely as geography matters to services trade almost as much as to trade in goods. This is due to factors such as the need of face-to-face interactions, the inconvenience of operating in different time zones and so on, all of which tend to result in services exports being quite localised geographically.

Just how severely Brexit will affect the services trade will depend on the form it takes; however, it seems increasingly likely that under all feasible options the UK will face increased regulatory costs.

______________

Note: the above draws on the author’s published report available here
 

JP1

Member
Livestock Farmer
Timmermans: UK ran around 'like idiots' in Brexit negotiations
  • 7 hours ago
  • p07h4x32.jpg

Timmermans: "It's like Lance Corporal Jones: 'Don't panic, don't panic'... running around like idiots"
UK ministers were "running around like idiots" when they arrived to negotiate Brexit in 2017, a top EU official says.

The EU Commission's First Vice-President, Frans Timmermans, said he expected a "Harry Potter-like book of tricks" from ministers.

But he told BBC's Panorama that, instead, they were like Lance Corporal Jones from Dad's Army.

Panorama: Britain's Brexit Crisis is due to be broadcast on BBC One on Thursday at 21:00 BST.

Negotiations between the UK and EU began in 2017 after Prime Minister Theresa May triggered the Article 50 process to leave the bloc.

At the end of 2018, a withdrawal agreement was settled between the two sides and EU officials said the matter was closed.

But MPs voted against the plan three times, which led to a number of delays to the exit date - now set for 31 October.

In an interview in March 2019 with the BBC's Nick Robinson, Mr Timmermans said he found it "shocking" how unprepared the UK team was when it began negotiations.

"We thought they are so brilliant," he said. "That in some vault somewhere in Westminster there will be a Harry Potter-like book with all the tricks and all the things in it to do."

But after seeing the then-Brexit Secretary David Davis - who resigned over his disagreements with the deal - speaking in public, his mind changed.

"I saw him not coming, not negotiating, grandstanding elsewhere [and] I thought, 'Oh my God, they haven't got a plan, they haven't got a plan.'

"That was really shocking, frankly, because the damage if you don't have a plan...

"Time's running out and you don't have a plan. It's like Lance Corporal Jones, you know, 'Don't panic, don't panic!' Running around like idiots."

'Playing games'
Mr Timmermans - interviewed two months before Mrs May announced her resignation - also criticised Boris Johnson's approach to Brexit negotiations from when they began.

"Perhaps I am being a bit harsh, but it is about time we became a bit harsh. I am not sure he was being genuine," he said.

"I have always had the impression he is playing games."

Mr Johnson was asked for an interview by Panorama, but he declined.
 

br jones

Member
Timmermans: UK ran around 'like idiots' in Brexit negotiations
  • 7 hours ago
  • p07h4x32.jpg

Timmermans: "It's like Lance Corporal Jones: 'Don't panic, don't panic'... running around like idiots"
UK ministers were "running around like idiots" when they arrived to negotiate Brexit in 2017, a top EU official says.

The EU Commission's First Vice-President, Frans Timmermans, said he expected a "Harry Potter-like book of tricks" from ministers.

But he told BBC's Panorama that, instead, they were like Lance Corporal Jones from Dad's Army.

Panorama: Britain's Brexit Crisis is due to be broadcast on BBC One on Thursday at 21:00 BST.

Negotiations between the UK and EU began in 2017 after Prime Minister Theresa May triggered the Article 50 process to leave the bloc.

At the end of 2018, a withdrawal agreement was settled between the two sides and EU officials said the matter was closed.

But MPs voted against the plan three times, which led to a number of delays to the exit date - now set for 31 October.

In an interview in March 2019 with the BBC's Nick Robinson, Mr Timmermans said he found it "shocking" how unprepared the UK team was when it began negotiations.

"We thought they are so brilliant," he said. "That in some vault somewhere in Westminster there will be a Harry Potter-like book with all the tricks and all the things in it to do."

But after seeing the then-Brexit Secretary David Davis - who resigned over his disagreements with the deal - speaking in public, his mind changed.

"I saw him not coming, not negotiating, grandstanding elsewhere [and] I thought, 'Oh my God, they haven't got a plan, they haven't got a plan.'

"That was really shocking, frankly, because the damage if you don't have a plan...

"Time's running out and you don't have a plan. It's like Lance Corporal Jones, you know, 'Don't panic, don't panic!' Running around like idiots."

'Playing games'
Mr Timmermans - interviewed two months before Mrs May announced her resignation - also criticised Boris Johnson's approach to Brexit negotiations from when they began.

"Perhaps I am being a bit harsh, but it is about time we became a bit harsh. I am not sure he was being genuine," he said.

"I have always had the impression he is playing games."

Mr Johnson was asked for an interview by Panorama, but he declined.




And you belive wverything that man says ? Pinch of salt
 

Hindsight

Member
Location
Lincolnshire
By JOHNREDWOOD | Published: JULY 18, 2019
Mr Barnier’s refusal to re open the Withdrawal Agreement makes it clear. We leave without signing it, and offer a free trade agreement on the way out.

We do not need months of more uncertainty trying to unpick a small amount of the unpalatable things about the draft Withdrawal Treaty. We voted to take back control of our money, our laws and our borders, and must do so by 31 October
 

robs1

Member
No, it shows the Brexit team look bad - the fact we have not left proves theres a fair element of truth in what Timmerman says. Ultimately Timmerman has not said anything 99% of us dont already know.
But who put the team together and who was placed in it, apart fro. Davis the main man who undermined him was a well known euro lover and wants a federal state, We all know it was set up to fail and it's no surprise that it did.
 

JP1

Member
Livestock Farmer
But who put the team together and who was placed in it, apart fro. Davis the main man who undermined him was a well known euro lover and wants a federal state, We all know it was set up to fail and it's no surprise that it did.
Where does Raaaab fit in to this wonderful analysis and whatever happened to him ?
 

rob1

Member
Location
wiltshire
I very much doubt it. I'm expecting a huge smoke screen when all the arch ERG lot fail in October (or bottle it) and still cry "we was robbed"

Not many hiding places left now

Tick tock
As I said time will tell, only today we have more project fear from remainers, its tick tock for them too, it does strike me that there are SOME remainers that appear to want the UK to fail after brexit so they can say "I told you so" . very strange
 

JP1

Member
Livestock Farmer
As I said time will tell, only today we have more project fear from remainers, its tick tock for them too, it does strike me that there are SOME remainers that appear to want the UK to fail after brexit so they can say "I told you so" . very strange
You have a point. Not me. I want the best for us post Brexit although I will delight in pointing out to some of the ERG mob their deficiencies when they start with "It's very easy simple really, they need us more than we need them .............."
 

Highland Mule

Member
Livestock Farmer
You have a point. Not me. I want the best for us post Brexit although I will delight in pointing out to some of the ERG mob their deficiencies when they start with "It's very easy simple really, they need us more than we need them .............."

Me too, and the best will only be achieved if we are aware of our vulnerabilities in advance - hence why I see many of the remain camp being so vocal. If we had left six months ago, would anyone care to think how bad it would have been?
 

SFI - What % were you taking out of production?

  • 0 %

    Votes: 79 43.2%
  • Up to 25%

    Votes: 63 34.4%
  • 25-50%

    Votes: 30 16.4%
  • 50-75%

    Votes: 3 1.6%
  • 75-100%

    Votes: 3 1.6%
  • 100% I’ve had enough of farming!

    Votes: 5 2.7%

Red Tractor drops launch of green farming scheme amid anger from farmers

  • 1,286
  • 1
As reported in Independent


quote: “Red Tractor has confirmed it is dropping plans to launch its green farming assurance standard in April“

read the TFF thread here: https://thefarmingforum.co.uk/index.php?threads/gfc-was-to-go-ahead-now-not-going-ahead.405234/
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