A stark statistic

[ollie989898]

Ok, so you want construction workers back at work, fine by me. Where will you draw the line though? Not much in the country or even the world operates in a bubble or isolation. Construction means delivery drivers, concrete plants running, and all the other associated links in the supply chains that are involved. Car manufacture is similarly complex.

What needs to be restored is consumer confidence and demand and I am not sure that allowing portions of the economy to go back to work will restore that automatically. More to the point, if you want large chunks of the economy back in work, you are obliged to re-open the schools as well because the two are undeniably interlinked. As a parent, I evaluate the risk posed to our family and how it can be minimised. If an option became available to me where the risk was lower, I would take it. But in the present circumstances I would be as daft as a brush to infect this household with a potentially nasty disease when it was perfectly avoidable. It's not ideal but I would sooner be poorer than see members of my extended family die for no good reason.

All the economic forecasts of this kind of scenario indicate a near immediate resumption of demand and a strong but not total resurgence in economic fortunes. Will there be a huge hole in national finances? Without question, but there are ways of managing and recovering a national deficit.

 

[Lowland1]

Ok, so you want construction workers back at work, fine by me. Where will you draw the line though? Not much in the country or even the world operates in a bubble or isolation. Construction means delivery drivers, concrete plants running, and all the other associated links in the supply chains that are involved. Car manufacture is similarly complex.

What needs to be restored is consumer confidence and demand and I am not sure that allowing portions of the economy to go back to work will restore that automatically. More to the point, if you want large chunks of the economy back in work, you are obliged to re-open the schools as well because the two are undeniably interlinked. As a parent, I evaluate the risk posed to our family and how it can be minimised. If an option became available to me where the risk was lower, I would take it. But in the present circumstances I would be as daft as a brush to infect this household with a potentially nasty disease when it was perfectly avoidable. It's not ideal but I would sooner be poorer than see members of my extended family die for no good reason.

All the economic forecasts of this kind of scenario indicate a near immediate resumption of demand and a strong but not total resurgence in economic fortunes. Will there be a huge hole in national finances? Without question, but there are ways of managing and recovering a national deficit.

O.k surely by now there should be clear statistics on which groups are at risk and which are n't as such i believe that those people in the low risk groups need to start moving about and things need to start opening and yes that will be McDonald's and things like it because that's how the economy works. It's going to be difficult if the 20 year old shop assistant is living with his 70 year old diabetic grandma but it has to happen sometime. And to perfectly honest we are all going to have to exposed to this virus at sometime i don't think we need to go looking for it because over time it will find us no matter what we do. In my own case at present i have two teenagers looking after an 80 year old they are not stupid and have no intention of exposing their Grandfather to harm but they have lives to lead and the point is if you say o.k this is just a six month sabbatical and once it's over its all back to normal then no problem. Unfortunately with ever week of continued economic harm that's unlikely to be the case. I don't think i am prepared to be sprayed with the virus but i will take my chance in everyday life whilst taking the accepted precautions.

 

[Agrivator]

A discussion last night focused on whether or no we should wear masks to reduce the spread of infection.

But contrary to what most folk think, they are effective in preventing spread of the infection from the wearer.

My first reaction was, ''how does that prevent the spread of a tiny virus which is able to to find a way though any permeable material?''.
But it relies on the fact that the virus is carried in water vapour, which in turn will be blocked by any reasonable mask.

So if there is a move to make it mandatory for us to wear masks, it is essential that the public appreciate the above. And also, it is apparent that masks need to be easily detached when we are not about to infect anybody nearby. Just like a handkerchief when we sneeze.

 

[czechmate]

Ok, so you want construction workers back at work, fine by me. Where will you draw the line though? Not much in the country or even the world operates in a bubble or isolation. Construction means delivery drivers, concrete plants running, and all the other associated links in the supply chains that are involved. Car manufacture is similarly complex.

What needs to be restored is consumer confidence and demand and I am not sure that allowing portions of the economy to go back to work will restore that automatically. More to the point, if you want large chunks of the economy back in work, you are obliged to re-open the schools as well because the two are undeniably interlinked. As a parent, I evaluate the risk posed to our family and how it can be minimised. If an option became available to me where the risk was lower, I would take it. But in the present circumstances I would be as daft as a brush to infect this household with a potentially nasty disease when it was perfectly avoidable. It's not ideal but I would sooner be poorer than see members of my extended family die for no good reason.

All the economic forecasts of this kind of scenario indicate a near immediate resumption of demand and a strong but not total resurgence in economic fortunes. Will there be a huge hole in national finances? Without question, but there are ways of managing and recovering a national deficit.

But the Donald says there will be an instant boom upon reopening (in the USofA anyway)

 

[Johnnyboxer]

Of course the lockdown is to save lives.
The point of not overwhelming the NHS is that more people will die if you do not have capacity to treat them. A proportion of hospitalised people do recover - figures of 50% upwards have been given. If treatment is not available the death rate will rise.

Exactly I saw on C4 last night that it’s now up to 60% + that survive in ICU on a ventilator and improving as they learn new drug and physical strategies

Lockdown not only stops community transmission at all ages to break the spread, it buys time for the medics to learn how to save patients effectively-remember only 3 months they hadn’t even any experience of CV19

Every day counts

Every day buys time

 

[Chopsy Varmint]

Those of you reckoning that we should accept the risks and just get on with life, do you mind forming a queue and walking through a spray booth loaded with the virus first? You might as well get it out of the way and see who will live, who will die and who will have a good bit of pulmonary fibrosis for the rest of their lives? I will stay at home for a few more months with the kids.

Tell me, who exactly do you class as a 'productive worker' who should be working right now? I see the Openreach man working in the village last week, and two chaps from the power company a few days prior to that. The bins and recycling are still being collected. The water and sewerage still works. Who else would you have back at work? The staff at McDonalds? Travel agents? Sports Direct? Car salesmen? Tell you what, funnily enough I don't want a big mac, certainly won't be flying on holiday any time soon and I won't be buying a new car, either. The entire economy relies on everyone being at work to function, else there is no money for consumers to create demand for goods and services.

You feel like potentially sacrificing yourself for the good of the economy, no worries, I'm not going to stop you.

Being deliberately exposed to a large viral load without PPE is unnecessary. As @Lowland1 says, until we have a vaccine the virus will find us eventually, even those at home in hiding if it comes in on the essential shopping or post. How do you know you've not been exposed already and are an asymptomatic carrier?

We have to find some way to pick up the threads of life somehow. Those of us still working can't financially support the rest of the population hiding at home and to be honest I'm surprised younger people in the less risky age groups are continuing to tolerate the lockdown as well as it seems. I don't know how old you are, or what your health is like but for myself I've made a judgement of my level of risk of death based on the information we've been given so far. Yes, there will be outliers in the statistics and who knows, maybe I'll turn out to be one of the unlucky ones but I am not going to live the rest of my life in fear of this disease.

It is possible to find a way to work within the social distancing rules and personally my new normal includes taking a bucket, water, soap, bleach spray and paper towel around with me everywhere. Yesterday was the first day in a month or so where it felt routine and 'unweird' to go through the gears of removing work gear, handwashing, disinfecting work gear, disinfecting the vehicle door handles, driving controls etc. No different from working through the equine flu epidemic last year except now I'm able to do it without thinking about it.

As regards which businesses should be open, as long as they can show adherence to social distancing rules and have procedures in place to protect staff and customers I don't have a preference. Government advice is 'go to work if you can't work from home but observe social distancing' but so many people are hiding in fear in their houses that the furlough budget which was initially set at £380B is now set to exceed £500B. This is unsupportable.

Why are most independent garages round here shut yet a garage twenty miles away is still open and has found a way to work with social distancing? The roadworks on the A14 are continuing so why are building sites shut down? One window cleaner who comes to the village has stopped work, the other is continuing. Up the road in Newmarket, it's business as usual for racing yards with horses going to and from the gallops around town. Buses and taxis are still working.

People on this forum work with a degree of risk of personal injury every day, greater than most of the general population is exposed to, but have systems and routines in place to mitigate it. This virus is another risk but it can be worked around with some thought and strict observance of mitigating protocols. We're clever, problem-solving mammals and should be able to use our brain-smarts and common sense to manage life with respect for the risk from cv19.

Here's another question to chew over today while I'm at work - how are you going to manage the risk of antibiotic resistance which is more than likely the next health disaster on the horizon?

 

[kiwi pom]

I can choose the language I wish and feel appropriate

Or are you saying 8 deaths in one local care home is not a shocking statistic ?

Its very sad. Assuming we're talking aged care?
I'm sure 8 deaths in one go is rare and obviously many more will die of the virus but people in aged care die every day, especially if a bug of some kind goes through the place.
Shocking things happened before the virus and will still happen when we have it under control.
At some point governments will reach a level of risk that they think is acceptable and the world will start to function again. When that happens people will still die from the virus along with all the other things that can kill us.

We're up to 11 deaths now sadly. I think the youngest so far is mid 70's and 4 were in their 90's.
Not a bad innings.

 

[JP1]

Its very sad. Assuming we're talking aged care?
I'm sure 8 deaths in one go is rare and obviously many more will die of the virus but people in aged care die every day, especially if a bug of some kind goes through the place.
Shocking things happened before the virus and will still happen when we have it under control.
At some point governments will reach a level of risk that they think is acceptable and the world will start to function again. When that happens people will still die from the virus along with all the other things that can kill us.

We're up to 11 deaths now sadly. I think the youngest so far is mid 70's and 4 were in their 90's.
Not a bad innings.

Yes a care home. Sitting ducks. Even some of the more professional care homes are going to remarkable personal efforts with overnight fogging, temperature testing, PPE etc

And still folks are flying in from all over and no temperature testing or other measures

 

[Chae1]

I can choose the language I wish and feel appropriate

Or are you saying 8 deaths in one local care home is not a shocking statistic ?

I agree. Its shocking.

I'm getting like Guth, so I better be careful what I say!

If they were all in a care home they were on there last legs anyway?

Family couldn't or couldn't be ar$ed looking after them.

Costing the government or families a fortune in care home costs.

Just agreed perished was inappropriate use of language. I'm no wordsmith!

I would say someone that died on a mountain or on a fishing boat at sea perished. Not somebody tucked up in a care home. They passed away

Why should the government provide PPE to private care homes? They charge patients hundreds of pounds per day to reside there. Buy it themselves.

 

[Agrivator]

I agree. Its shocking.

I'm getting like Guth, so I better be careful what I say!

If they were all in a care home they were on there last legs anyway?

Family couldn't or couldn't be ar$ed looking after them.

Costing the government or families a fortune in care home costs.

Just agreed perished was inappropriate use of language. I'm no wordsmith!

I would say someone that died on a mountain or on a fishing boat at sea perished. Not somebody tucked up in a care home. They passed away

Why should the government provide PPE to private care homes? They charge patients hundreds of pounds per day to reside there. Buy it themselves.

The fact that we are so reliant on care homes is because of our welfare state mentality. We have been conditioned to expect that the state will do what many cultures do naturally - look after their aged in a family setting.

 

[Chae1]

The fact that we are so reliant on care homes is because of our welfare state mentality. We have been conditioned to expect that the state will do what many cultures do naturally - look after their aged in a family setting.

Like Italy?

That didn't end too well.

 

[JP1]

I agree. Its shocking.

I'm getting like Guth, so I better be careful what I say!

If they were all in a care home they were on there last legs anyway?

Family couldn't or couldn't be ar$ed looking after them.

Costing the government or families a fortune in care home costs.

Just agreed perished was inappropriate use of language. I'm no wordsmith!

I would say someone that died on a mountain or on a fishing boat at sea perished. Not somebody tucked up in a care home. They passed away

Why should the government provide PPE to private care homes? They charge patients hundreds of pounds per day to reside there. Buy it themselves.

A more fullsome and reasoned reply than from him

I just noted over recent times, you had been remarking on my posts with sarcasm rather than the subject at hand. So to address your points

To an extent you have a point although I consider perished a reasonable use of language and was in no way meant to be inappropriate

My Aunt resides in a care home of 18 and with a dementia specialism. In the home where 8 died, the death rate would have been much harder and swifter and cause of death has been identified as Covid.

My Aunt pays full fees not the State. My Father is 10 years her Senior and whilst my Aunt is chronologically not that old she has a series of medical conditions that mean she has immediate and constant care needs. Most of these were accommodated by a warden assisted independent living apartment but central Government funding reductions meant partial warden-less presence with an intercom to a remote call centre. Post epileptic trauma meant she would be regularly crated in to A and E with suspected stroke or urinary infection and then a long slow process of discharge back home. So having sold her property from under her and moving her from her birth town, she now lives close to me so I can help

Most care homes are a mix of local Authority paying residents and private

Until last week there was no real guidance or focus on bio-security for care homes. I was speaking with Aunt's care home Manager and the head office about adopting an early lockdown in terms of restricting visitors, temperature testing staff, deliveries to the door only

The GP used to attend every Thursday and now does phone consultations with the Manager but there is no testing for key care staff. I think they as low paid workers are also the heroes in all of this

 

[ollie989898]

Antibiotic resistance has already happened. There are known diseases caused by bacteria which are resistant to most classes of antimicrobials. Fortunately not all bacterial species are resistant, nor are all the strains of each type. Also the majority of them are not readily spread from person to person or they can be controlled through other means or careful hygiene- i.e C Diff.

The human body is also well versed in dealing with bacteria, it is contacted by them many times a day and also make up part of own microflora. There is also a raft of initiatives designed to halt the rise of antimicrobial resistance which is why they are not as prescribed as widely these days and are being withdrawn from non-human use.

It is obvious that some workplaces should be re-opened but the real problem is schools and nursery settings. Who is going to chance their arm with their kids, and worse still, who is going to let their kids bring it home and infect the rest of the family? This forum includes a large numbers of farmers, a section of the economy where the average age is high compared to the rest of the population and so the risk to them is naturally enhanced to say nothing of that part of the population with any kind of underlying health complaint.

 

[n.w]

I'm just shooting an idea from the hip, responses often illuminating.
I'm with you on the holiday, fast food, new car....but are we ready as a society to hold that status quo? Consumerism...killed...stone ...dead.
Who decides who is working and who is not ?
How far are the half of the adult population working expected to fund the half sat on the couch playing the XBox ?
I mean great for them not risking pulmonary fibrosis, awaiting a vaccine that may not be that effective. How many can self fund this? If not, who is paying and for how long?
If you play Horizon New Dawn long enough, do you actually believe you are in some sort of alternate reality?? I must ask my lads.

Anyway...construction for a start to answer your question. What a great time to patch some potholes properly, even tarmac a motorway or three. Of course the lads will have to get used to not aggregating in discussion clumps at every opportunity, but should be possible.

Technically i suppose, for the sake of keeping the economy vaguely intact, we need workers who produce goods and services actually needed at home in the UK (so not mcD no) and who produce goods / services for which there is still export demand.

Please understand my position is from a viewpoint that sees a Great Depression as absolutely unavoidable. That is debatable...please try.

Thats a very good idea !