Accuracy of 30day weather forecasts/predictions ?

[Pilatus]

The accuracy of 30 day weather forecasts/predictions has been discussed before , but in case any new members read this thread ,I would be interested to know if you know of any weather forecast provider that provides a 30 forecast/prediction that over a period of time ,you have found reasonably accurate.
I always wonder which 10/14 day weather forecast providers the supermarkets use during the summer, to try and plan whether or not to order more salad type veg and barbecue type food if a hot spell is immiment , leading to a a switch in peoples choice of food .

 

[jondear]

Simon from weather web was alright but no longer on here giving free long range forcasts .Be interested to know if he predicted this long high pressure spell in April !

 

[Andrew K]

I go by the Barometer these days.....

 

[Goweresque]

Simon from weather web was alright but no longer on here giving free long range forcasts .Be interested to know if he predicted this long high pressure spell in April !

I pay for his forecasts, and yes his April prediction was for a dry month, with continued blocking high pressure. But then thats been a feature of the UK weather pattern for 8-9 months now, so its not that big a deal to say that it'll go on the same as it has been. The real trick with weather prediction is predicting when the established pattern changes to a new one - and thats what no-one is very good at sadly.....

 

[METJEFFUK]

Weather forecasting is not an exact science and the further you go out the less reliable the forecast is, but what we all try and see are the weather trends, these can be very complicated, IE sea temp /ice flow /sun spots /air temps, to name but a few. So please don’t shoot the messenger.


Here at metjeffuk we provide a daily forecast for the Farmers forum, we also on our website (metjeffuk.com) provide a 5 day forecast for farmers. You may also like to check out our long range forecast, we currently have our 2017 spring and summer long range forecast ready to view at http://www.metjeffuk.com/latest-long-range-forecast.html

It goes without saying that all our forecast are FREE

whatever your weather enjoy it!
Jeff

 

[multi power]

Remember it's a forecast, not a quote or a gaurentee

 

[multi power]

I go by the Barometer these days.....

And it never ever lies

 

[T C]

Metoffice are still providing a forecast under the events tab for the six nations 2017 !!

 

[jondear]

Metoffice are still providing a forecast under the events tab for the six nations 2017 !!

Did they even manage to get that wright!On it sharp as!

 

[Pilatus]

I go by the Barometer these days.....

I see that on Met office forecast it is meant to be dropping the end of next week.

 

[Pilatus]

Barometric pressure up in the 1020's mb , but rain drizzle and fog forecast.
Is it unusual to have damp weather with air pressure so high?
Cirencester area.

 

[linga]

Barometric pressure up in the 1020's mb , but rain drizzle and fog forecast.
Is it unusual to have damp weather with air pressure so high?
Cirencester area.

I think( but I might be wrong) the classification of air pressure as high or low is not absolute but is relative to surrounding pressure conditions so 1020 mb may be low compared to what surrounds the area.
I guess therefore it might not be that unusual to have rain and drizzle at 1020 mb

 

[METJEFFUK]

With reference to your question; although the barometer may read high air pressure (1020mb), if the air is warm and say the sea is still cool / or there is tropical air in place this would be make the air hold a lot of water vapour at lower levels, while higher up say above 3000ft it could be sunny, but any precipitation like a thunderstorm would normally be prevented to develop due to high air pressure celling off the atmosphere.

Hope this helps

All the best

Jeff

Metjeffuk

 

[Simon Keeling]

Longer range predicting is a totally different beast to day to day forecasting. It's the pattern change which is all important as well as spotting when a forecast might be going awry.
Its for others to decide on the accuracy of our month ahead (June forecast is issued tomorrow to Premium members) and beyond guidance, but I'm proud to say that the commercial customers we supply stick with us, right or not-right
It's so important that a long range prediction is used differently to a short range forecast. Watching the forecast regularly and assessing changes in it is where farmers can gain most benefit from such forecasts.
That's how our trading customers use the longer range predictions; not so much on the day to day forecast themselves but more on the consistency and it is there where I think farmers have most to gain from them.
By the way, you can assess the accuracy of our forecasts yourself because I offer a 3-day free trial or ,my Premium membership at www.Weatherweb.net (shameless plug I know!).
My tips would be teach yourself how to use the one ranges by watching/reading them regularly, assess the consistency of the forecasts, but whatever happens do not use long ranges to predict the weather for a particular day just use them as an overview as to he trend which might emerge.

 

[Pilatus]

Thankyou for your posts,interesting about the rain while pressure high,we all keep learning.