Accuracy of weather forecasts around the world.!!

[Pilatus]

Wherever you farm on the planet, how accurate are the 7/10/14 day weather forecasts in your area??
If they are not accurate WHY would anyone take any notice of long range weather forecasts!!

 

[Canada Farmer]

Wherever you farm on the planet, how accurate are the 7/10/14 day weather forecasts in your area??
If they are not accurate WHY would anyone take any notice of long range weather forecasts!!

I'd suspect that if weather forecasters were paid on accuracy, they'd go broke, eh...

 

[Kiwi Pete]

It depends what you expect?

If you want a rough outline, then they're pretty good to make plans.

But most of them just "got too flash" and try to make it appear they know exactly what time the wind will swing around and precisely how many mm of rain will fall - much like Agriculture, all the tech hides the fact it's still the same game as 400 years ago, with the more visible shortcomings painted over.

 

[Deerefarmer]

Yeah what he said ^^^
I use Weather Bug app here(eastern u.s.)its great as far as radar and say 3 day advance past that I'll use 7 day forecast as a rough generalization but at the end of the day it's still only a prediction

 

[Kiwi Pete]

Yeah what he said ^^^
I use Weather Bug app here(eastern u.s.)its great as far as radar and say 3 day advance past that I'll use 7 day forecast as a rough generalization but at the end of the day it's still only a prediction

Sometimes it's as well to look for satellite imagery and do your own forecast; much the same as predicting sport results - the experts have little more idea than the rest of us, and less appreciation of local topography.

They simply make 'posting a letter look like launching a rocket', but it's in no way making their predictions any more accurate.

 

[Deerefarmer]

Just like anything else on the internet ? take it at face value, I tend to think of it as an aid in making educated decisions, for instance my area has extensive mtn ranges to the west of me running north and south roughly, most rains coming up from the gulf of mexico look like real stranglers till the mountains confuse the system, at that point imo i find radar more reliable as even so called experts aren't necessarily able to predict what and how much.... as I said its simply a tool in the box

 

[Kiwi Pete]

Here's an interesting reason why our weather forecasting has become more overreactive: liability

In the past decade, weather forecasts here have been much more "jumpy", and this jumps back to quite a severe blizzard that took out electricity to much of Canterbury (mid south island) for weeks, but wasn't forecast accurately
They've since announced any moisture-carrying frontal system in as a major storm, with warnings etc, because they cannot "stand" fallout if they don't warn us?

A swing in wind direction here, even a few degrees makes all the difference to our weather regardless of total cloud water, temperature etc.

 

[Goweresque]

Most global locations have far more predictable weather than the UK because they have less air masses to predict the movement of. The UK is rather unique (I think Japan is the only place similar) in that it has weather created by 4 different type air masses, the wet Atlantic western air mass, the cold Arctic northern air mass, the hot and cold (which it is depends on the season) Continental eastern air mass, and the hot African southern air mass. At any given point our weather can be created by one of these, or two of them interacting. Thats how we can go (as we did a month ago) from a week of hot 20 degree sunny days, to constant low pressure systems bringing inches of rain, a change that was literally like flicking a switch. A system that contains 4 random factors like that is always going to be highly unstable and very unpredictable.

 

[Paddington]

There are places in the UK with their own microclimate, parts of Devon for example where the topography of the land means rain in one village and bright sunshine a few miles away in the next. Being in a valley we are 6C colder than the BBC forecast is saying. I don't think the UK Met Office accuracy has improved since Michael Fish and the Great Storm of 1987. The Meteo one on BBC based on UK MO data is only accurate say for rain within a couple of hours, often a bone dry day forecast at 8am will give way to heavy rain by lunchtime.

 

[capfits]

All depends where you are in the world in reality.
The UK and the wider northeast Atlantic along with a few other parts of the world does have a very dynamic weather pattern compared to many other parts of the world.
Having travelled awesome bit, it is obvious that patterns of weather tend to be more seasonal but with variations in terms of when they kick in and stop is Monsoon in India,went paragliding in the Himalya the local said that the monsoon was 2 weeks late in going back out result cloudbase 4000 feet lower than expected an a bit more showers.
Summer in Alps sunny and showers every day like clockwork. The best forecast there is if the farmers cut their hay it is a fohn (dangerous, but easy to forecast see) or just plain bloody glorious with no showers.

 

[Bald Rick]

Wind ... and bits of rain just about covers it for me

 

[nick...]

Weather forecasters advertise a bit of everything so they at least get something right.personally I think they are less than accurate
Nick...