Agents’ cheery outlook post-BPS

[shearerlad]

Does the "Woodland carbon guarantee scheme" require permanent storage of the carbon in return for the payment?

I'm fundamentally against carbon trading (allowing commodity traders to suck profits from the actions of others whilst delivering no benefit themselves and often using those profits to maintain a high climate footprint) and carbon offsetting (allowing polluting businesses to avoid addressing their underlying pollution)

Can I frame that?
Imo an excellent post that puts in writing what many of us think about all this carbon trading sh1te

 

[glasshouse]

Another way of looking at owned vs tenanted is that the tenant farmer may already have to be more efficient and profitable than the owned land farmer. Rents can come down, reducing the effect of losing BPS. To maintain profitability on an owned farm major changes will have to take place, some in this group might not even realise they're dependent on subsidy, in fact they may never have turned a profit from their farming activities

Especially when boris brings in land tax to pay for covid

 

[holwellcourtfarm]

Can I frame that?
Imo an excellent post that puts in writing what many of us think about all this carbon trading sh1te

Feel free.

I argue this all the time. Leading climate researchers (notably Myles Allen and Dave Frame) regularly state that unless we stop emmitting CO2 from fossil fuels soon then everything else is just window dressing. It's CO2 and N2O that accumulate in the atmosphere long term and need addressing.

Paying a few quid to someone to grow some trees over the next 30 years then harvest half of them for processing achieves little in the long run.

 

[shearerlad]

With regards the OP, what ever happens re brexit, Covid and the likes I think that hands on agriculture in the uk will survive but the support and ancillary industries that rely on subs being passed from UK government to them via farm business are going to have a real struggle. That is feed and fert companies, machinery manufacturers/dealers and dare I say it FACTORS/LAND AGENTS

 

[teslacoils]

There are plenty of bought and paid for farms where granny, uncle, aunty etcs divi or drawings are far in excess of an fbt rent.

 

[neilo]

So long as tenants keep offering more...

In the great depression of the 1930's millions of acres was idle as no tenants were willing to bid. It could happen again.

That will only happen after mass bankruptcies have happened. Of course that situation also created opportunities for those in a position to take advantage, but an awful lot more will have lost everything.

 

[Northernlights]

If BPS is in a way just allowing farm gate prices to be lower than what they should be then surly there’s a possibility that the slack in the shortfall will be taken up. Combine the amount of farmers getting out of the job then maybe the prospects aren’t too bad at all. The proposed 10% reduction has already been more than covered by livestock prices already

Many of our buyers(or their accountants) work on the basis of what price will keep us producing so factor in sub payments and will increase prices to us to keep us producing.I actually think the opposite will happen we are only 60% self sufficient in food in UK and need to import . We have irritated a lot of the world recently for all sorts of reasons and may not be able to get all the food we need so easily what with weather issues in grain producing parts of the world. Sheep are the best example, where is the collapse that was predicted? or is it still coming,prices for cattle are still firm and grain is moving upwards. In Scotland we have a new rent system about to be introduced based on productive capacity so maybe not all bad news. Add a summer coming up with everyone stuck in the UK and like last summer food sales especially for barbecues will increase.

 

[holwellcourtfarm]

That will only happen after mass bankruptcies have happened. Of course that situation also created opportunities for those in a position to take advantage, but an awful lot more will have lost everything.

That could potentially happen. Unlikely but distinctly possible.

 

[Dave6170]

What system are we going to get in Scotland?

 

[warksfarmer]

Recently attended a zoom meeting with a respected independent land agent. He described the next 5 yrs as the biggest change in Farming in a lifetime. He painted a fairly bleak picture of agric under the Tory government’s funding plans, none of which encourage food production:

> £40K BPS will be £19k in 2024!!
> New schemes (ELMS , Carbon trading, etc) collectively will not nearly replace BPS monetarily
> 75% farms are NOT profitable w/o BPS. (obv depend on weather/prices)
> Post Brexit exporting bureaucracy will incur costs which will be borne at the farmgate. Prices will be more volatile too

He foresees 3 types of farm streams going forward:

1 Out and out large commercial hi-tech farms

2 ‘Environmental farmers’ taking advantage of schemes carbon trading, natural capital.

3 Farmers exit sector altogether taking a one off Govt payment of 250/ac to do so

Put like this it and the short timescale involved- there’s nothing gradual about it- we are in for a tumultuous period. In particular for small family farms which may be sink or swim.

Any thoughts?

ELMS will pay £176/ac for not cropping 50% of the farm. If we can put covers on that then we are looking at potentially 120t/ac of carbon stored we can trade. Present idea of price is £25-£30/t.
Long term some are saying it’ll be worth £300/tonne.

We’ve a compost site here and renewable energy and in stewardship pilot. We’ve had approaches for carbon purchase already. The stumbling block is the small print because industry wants more control than any farmer would be willing to give. Industry needs control so they know what they are buying is secure and legitimate.
More red tape is the only way forward with quarterly audits if your selling carbon.

The rest of your farm organic.

 

[Alwayshappy]

Commodity prices, Commodity prices, Commodity prices.

Exactly, a £28 rise in wheat price would offset my BPS, then we can really start to farm properly without tipping our caps to all the inefficient red tape, and constantly moving goalposts, oh sorry I was dreaming for a minute, they will always want to control us, so will dream up more schemes to keep us under control!

 

[Werzle]

I think the retirement payment is a crazy idea, and I don’t think it would go down well with the public if more widely reported.

I think its great if it removes stubborn old sods so a younger generation can have a go. The best farmers and the wealthiest farmers will survive from what i can see.

 

[livestock 1]

Many of our buyers(or their accountants) work on the basis of what price will keep us producing so factor in sub payments and will increase prices to us to keep us producing.I actually think the opposite will happen we are only 60% self sufficient in food in UK and need to import . We have irritated a lot of the world recently for all sorts of reasons and may not be able to get all the food we need so easily what with weather issues in grain producing parts of the world. Sheep are the best example, where is the collapse that was predicted? or is it still coming,prices for cattle are still firm and grain is moving upwards. In Scotland we have a new rent system about to be introduced based on productive capacity so maybe not all bad news. Add a summer coming up with everyone stuck in the UK and like last summer food sales especially for barbecues will increase.

Buyers of prime stock were demanding accounts to honour contracts. They factor bps into what they NEED to give us. The current situation backs the figures. Sheep up cattle up BPS diminishing
Numbers and calculators don’t lie

 

[Spud]

ELMS will pay £176/ac for not cropping 50% of the farm. If we can put covers on that then we are looking at potentially 120t/ac of carbon stored we can trade. Present idea of price is £25-£30/t.
Long term some are saying it’ll be worth £300/tonne.

We’ve a compost site here and renewable energy and in stewardship pilot. We’ve had approaches for carbon purchase already. The stumbling block is the small print because industry wants more control than any farmer would be willing to give. Industry needs control so they know what they are buying is secure and legitimate.
More red tape is the only way forward with quarterly audits if your selling carbon.

The rest of your farm organic.

Have you a link to the detail on that Lee? Effective set aside on 50% @£176/ac and 120t/ac carbon sequestered sounds too good to be true!

 

[livestock 1]

What does elms pay on uplands?

 

[Steevo]

Recently attended a zoom meeting with a respected independent land agent. He described the next 5 yrs as the biggest change in Farming in a lifetime. He painted a fairly bleak picture of agric under the Tory government’s funding plans, none of which encourage food production:

> £40K BPS will be £19k in 2024!!
> New schemes (ELMS , Carbon trading, etc) collectively will not nearly replace BPS monetarily
> 75% farms are NOT profitable w/o BPS. (obv depend on weather/prices)
> Post Brexit exporting bureaucracy will incur costs which will be borne at the farmgate. Prices will be more volatile too

He foresees 3 types of farm streams going forward:

1 Out and out large commercial hi-tech farms

2 ‘Environmental farmers’ taking advantage of schemes carbon trading, natural capital.

3 Farmers exit sector altogether taking a one off Govt payment of 250/ac to do so

Put like this it and the short timescale involved- there’s nothing gradual about it- we are in for a tumultuous period. In particular for small family farms which may be sink or swim.

Any thoughts?

Interesting he focuses on a £40k BPS.

What level will a £200k BPS payment be...? In cash terms an awful lot more lost! That’s not easy to replace.

I question whether out and out high tech farms really will be the future. Tech costs huge amounts of money, and Stone Age commodity prices really don’t justify it in many instances.

I can’t see many environmental farmers existing either. The payment rates won’t be there to just cash in on.....it will be more like “we’ll pay you £100 to do £120 worth of work”. I cannot see a profit element existing, let alone a substantial one able to sustain an income. The government just don’t value these public goods (in cash terms) like they claim to with rhetoric.

What is a farmer that has “exited the sector”...? How will that work? Surely if they cannot make money they will rent it out anyway without a payoff......assuming someone will pay them a chunky rent for it. If pennies are offered as rent, they will just keep it in hand and do as little as possible.

Does having less farmers help the country in any way? I don’t really see the benefit.

 

[Fossil]

ELMS will pay £176/ac for not cropping 50% of the farm. If we can put covers on that then we are looking at potentially 120t/ac of carbon stored we can trade. Present idea of price is £25-£30/t.
Long term some are saying it’ll be worth £300/tonne.

We’ve a compost site here and renewable energy and in stewardship pilot. We’ve had approaches for carbon purchase already. The stumbling block is the small print because industry wants more control than any farmer would be willing to give. Industry needs control so they know what they are buying is secure and legitimate.
More red tape is the only way forward with quarterly audits if your selling carbon.

The rest of your farm organic.

I can’t see carbon trading for cover crops. It’s not permanent enough.

A woodland over a 100 year period onlystores about 4 tonnes of carbon per ha per year..At £30/tonne that’sless than £50/acre. Gross. Carbon needs to trade rather higher to make it worth anyone’s while.

 

[Werzle]

If somebody takes the £250/ac retirement payoff will the entitlements for the farm be as good as sold ,so that the next generation cannot claim anything other than new enviro type payments?

 

[holwellcourtfarm]

Exactly, a £28 rise in wheat price would offset my BPS, then we can really start to farm properly without tipping our caps to all the inefficient red tape, and constantly moving goalposts, oh sorry I was dreaming for a minute, they will always want to control us, so will dream up more schemes to keep us under control!

Good luck with that. A podcast I was listening to yesterday quoted the total agricultural support spend in the USA last year as $46Bn, most of which goes to crop production (crop insurance etc). For wheat you are directly competing with them. It's an international commodity.

The most likely reason for a wheat price rise would be devaluation of the £ which would then push input costs up.

 

[Werzle]

I cannot see £250/ac tempting many unless they are on there last legs, you need about £15k / yr just to survive these days let alone live a half decent retirement.