AHDB daily market commentary

[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Thursday 23 February 2023

• May-23 UK feed wheat futures closed at a three-week low yesterday of £232.00/t, down £4.25/t from Tuesdays close. The Nov-23 contract also lost ground, closing at £231.90/t, down £4.10/t over the same period.
• Global and domestic markets were pressured yet again yesterday by competitive Russian supplies, with Russian wheat the cheapest to be offered for the latest Egyptian tender. The most expensive offer, and the only one not from the Black Sea, came from France. After close of trade yesterday, Egypt’s state grain buyer GASC, booked 240Kt of Russian wheat.
• Paris rapeseed futures prices (May-23) settled at €558.00/t yesterday, down €2.75/t from Tuesdays close. Beneficial rains across parts of Argentina weighed on soyabean markets yesterday, pressuring the wider oilseed complex too.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - Large US crop outlook for 2023/24

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Friday 24 February 2023

• UK feed wheat futures (May-23) gained £1.60/t yesterday, to close at £233.60/t. New-crop futures (Nov-23) gained £2.10/t over the same period, to close at £234.00/t.
• Domestic markets followed European wheat markets higher yesterday, as buyers saw an opportunity after Paris wheat futures (May-23) hit a four-week low on Wednesday, pressured by competitive Russian wheat picking up global demand.
• A lack of news on the Black Sea Initiative renewal (Ukrainian grain export corridor) continues to support prices too, as today marks a year since Russia invaded Ukraine. The initiative is due for renewal on 19 Mar.
• Chicago maize futures (May-23) fell $5.90/t yesterday (2%), to close at $259.55/t. The lowest point in 6 weeks. Pressure was felt on markets following yesterday’s US planting data release for 2023/24.
• Paris rapeseed futures (May-23) fell €13.50/t yesterday, to close at €544.50/t. This followed weakness in Chicago soyabeans and soy oil, on yesterday’s announcement of a record US soyabean crop due next season (2023/24), if realised.
• Australian rapeseed export campaign is strong according to Australian Bureau of Statistics data. In December, 884Kt of canola (rapeseed) is set to have been exported, a new monthly record.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - Carbon markets insight

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

• UK feed wheat futures (May-23) closed yesterday at £218.00/t, down £3.50/t on Friday’s close. New crop futures (Nov-23) closed at £224.75/t, down £2.60/t over the same period.
• Our domestic market followed both the Paris and Chicago market down yesterday. Expectations of the renewal of the Black Sea grain export deal is pressuring the market. With Turkish Foreign Minister saying that Turkey is working to extent the U.N-backed initiative.
• The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARES) increased their estimate for 2022/23 wheat production to a record of 39.2Mt.
• Paris rapeseed futures (May-23) closed yesterday at €529.75/t, down €8.75/t on Friday’s close. ABARES also upped Australia’s 2022/23 record canola crop from 7.3Mt to now be estimated at 8.3Mt.
• Despite pressure on rapeseed prices, Chicago soyabean markets felt support yesterday, following the rallying support in soyameal markets. This is from global supply concerns over the ongoing drought in Argentina and their share of soyameal exports to the world – read more on this below.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - Argentina is keeping rapeseed prices supported

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Friday 10 March 2023

• UK feed wheat futures (May-23) closed at £216.00/t yesterday, down £4.00/t from Wednesday’s close. New crop futures (Nov-23) closed at £221.00/t, down £2.75/t over the same period.
• Global wheat markets continue to lose ground on growing expectations of an extended Black Sea deal allowing Ukraine to continue shipping grain, as well as competitive Russian supplies pressuring markets.
• US and European maize and soyabean markets were also under pressure yesterday though losses were limited by the severe ongoing drought in Argentina.
• Paris maize futures (Jun-23) closed at €260.25/t, down €1.75/t from Wednesday’s close.
• Chicago soyabean futures (May-23) were down $2.57/t over yesterday’s session, closing at $555.05/t.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - Fertiliser prices ease with natural gas futures

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Tuesday 14 March 2023

• UK feed wheat futures (May-23) closed at £217.00/t yesterday, up £2.00/t from Friday’s close. New-crop futures (Nov-23) closed at £221.70/t yesterday, up £2.20/t over the same period.
• Domestic wheat futures followed global markets higher yesterday, with gains seen for Chicago and Paris contracts. Dryness concerns for US winter wheat supported prices, alongside spill over of the ongoing market volatility concerns in the US financial sector.
• Yesterday, the USDA released the latest crop condition report (week ending 12 March) for Kansas who account for c.27% of the US winter wheat crop. Their winter wheat crop ‘good’ to ‘excellent’ ratings remained at 17%, unchanged from the previous week.
• Paris rapeseed (May-23) futures closed yesterday at €485.25/t, down €7.75/t from Friday’s close. Pressure continues to be felt, from wider vegetable oils as well as falling Chicago soyabean prices.
• Chicago soyabean futures (May-23) closed yesterday at $547.89/t, down $5.78/t from Friday’s close. Brazil’s large crop coming to the market pressures prices.
• HMRC UK trade data for January has now been released, available here. Season to date total wheat exports (Jul – Jan) inc. durum are up 178% from last season, at 736Kt. Oat exports are up 324% from last season over the same period, at 118Kt.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - Black Sea deal update

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Thursday 16 March 2023

• UK feed wheat futures (May-23) closed at £215.25/t yesterday, down £1.75/t from Tuesday’s close. New crop futures (Nov-23) fell £1.15/t over the same period, to close at £221.05/t at the end of the session.
• Global grain markets remain volatile as they react to any news surrounding talks on the extended Ukraine grain corridor deal – more information on this below.
• Paris rapeseed (May-23) closed at €481.50/t yesterday, losing €1.25/t over yesterday’s session. Rapeseed prices have come under pressure as recent rains across Europe have benefited EU and UK production prospects.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - What are the key market drivers this week?

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Wednesday 22 March 2023

• UK feed wheat futures (May-23) closed yesterday at £199.75/t, down £4.75/t from Monday’s close. This is the first time since February 2022, that the May-23 contract has closed below £200/t. New-crop futures (Nov-23) closed at £212.55/t, down just £1.95/t over the same period.
• Today, UK feed wheat futures (May-23) are trading at £192.50/t as at 13:15. For new-crop futures (Nov-23), these are trading at £206.00/t recorded at the same time.
• Domestic futures followed global wheat contracts down yesterday, on improved weather across the US grain belt as well as the extension of the Black Sea Initiative (Ukrainian grain export corridor) easing concerns over Black Sea supplies. Cheap Russian supplies especially continue to provide tough export competition for EU wheat.
• Financial market concerns, following news on Swiss bank Credit Suisse, weighed on global grain markets too.
• Paris rapeseed (May-23) fell €12.75/t yesterday, to close at €441.00/t, driven by pressure from the wider oilseed complex.
• Chicago soyabean futures (May-23) continue to feel pressure as the Brazilian harvest progresses. Yesterday, the contract closed at $538.98/t, down $6.98/t from Monday’s close. This is the lowest close on this contract since the start of December 2022.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - Rape oil prices to pull rapeseed prices even lower?

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Thursday 30 March 2023

• UK feed wheat futures (May-23) closed at £209.75/t yesterday, up £1.25/t from Tuesday’s close. The Nov-23 contract gained £2.70/t over the same period, closing at £221.75/t.
• Global wheat markets continued to climb yesterday following concerns over Russian supplies. Global grain trader Cargill said that it would take a step back from the Russian market and no longer handle the country’s grain at its export terminal (Refinitiv). According to Bloomberg, Russia is trying to take back control of its own export logistics.
• Paris rapeseed futures (May-23) climbed €7.75/t yesterday, ending the session at €479.50/t. New crop prices (Nov-23) closed at €477.75/t, up €5.50/t over the same period.
• According to Refinitiv, rainfall deficits in parts of Europe are leading to concerns over rapeseed yield potential and therefore production prospects, with more rain needed in south-Western Europe especially.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - Further cuts to animal feed, but increased wheat export prospects in latest UK S&D

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Wednesday 19 April 2023

• UK feed wheat futures (May-23) gained £1.70/t over yesterday’s session, closing at £203.25/t. The Nov-23 contract closed at £216.80/t, up £0.80/t over the same period.
• UK prices followed European wheat markets as they continued to be supported by the ongoing doubt over the future of the Ukrainian export deal. According to Refinitv, vessel inspections were halted on Monday, while Kyiv and Moscow made opposing statements about whether inspections had resumed yesterday. This morning Ukraine confirmed that inspections had resumed.
• Paris milling wheat (May-23) gained €4.75/t yesterday, closing at €260.75/t.
• Concerns over Ukrainian exports also drove up European rapeseed prices yesterday. Paris rapeseed (May-23) gained €16.50/t since Monday’s close, ending the session at €477.00/t yesterday.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - US winter wheat crop struggles while spring plantings progress

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Wednesday 26 April 2023

• Old-crop (May-23) UK feed wheat futures closed yesterday at £191.70/t, near unchanged (down £0.15/t) from the day before. New-crop (Nov-23) futures closed yesterday at £205.70/t, following the same movement as old crop from Monday’s close.
• Global wheat futures felt pressure yesterday, as the market focussed on the negative economic sentiment in markets, as well as ample short-term supplies. Though losses were likely capped by concern on whether the Black Sea Initiative is extended mid-May.
• Russia continues to reaffirm their position that the Black Sea Initiative (Ukrainian export deal) is not working from them, after the UN handed over proposals to improve and expand (Refinitiv).
• Poland have said they will keep the ban on imported Ukrainian grains to the end of the year today, despite the European Commission’s proposed emergency measures released last week.
• Paris rapeseed prices (May-23) fell €16.75/t yesterday, to close at €442.25/t. New-crop futures (Nov-23) fell €21.50/t over the same period, to close at €442.00/t. Rapeseed followed downwards momentum across the oilseed complex, including pressure on Chicago soyabeans, Malaysian palm oil and brent crude oil. Crude oil felt pressure from concerns for the global economic outlook.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - Spring Grain Market Outlook 2023 roundup

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