AHDB daily market commentary

Friday 12 March
  • UK feed wheat futures (May-21) closed at £204.25/t yesterday, down £0.75/t. This is a far smaller fall than US and Paris wheat futures. It’s likely linked to a rise in Chicago maize futures because of uncertainty about South American production.
  • Paris wheat futures fell yesterday after Egypt bought Romanian, rather than French, wheat in its first tender for over a month. US prices closed lower as forecast rain could support winter wheat crops as they emerge from dormancy.
  • New crop (Nov-21) Paris rapeseed futures set another new contract high yesterday, rising €8.25/t to close at €446.50/t. This equates to approximately £382/t (Refintiv). Tight old crop supplies globally and expectations for only a slightly bigger European crop in 2021 are supporting prices.
  • If you missed our Spring Grain Market Outlook webinar on Tuesday, you can catch up by listening to the podcast. We talk about the key drivers for global and domestic markets, the path for fuel, fertiliser and interest rates, and the future of farm policy.
Today's Grain Market Daily is now now published - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/grain-markets-waiting-for-direction-grain-market-daily

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Tuesday 16 March
  • UK feed wheat (May-21) futures fell for the fifth consecutive day yesterday, to close at £202.60/t. The gap between old crop and new crop prices also narrowed further yesterday. The Nov-21 contract closed unchanged at £170.00/t. The UK market followed moves in the Paris milling wheat futures.
  • In the latest UK average ex-farm prices (Corn Returns), spot feed wheat gained £0.40/t to £204.50/t. Feed barley remains at a strong discount of £43.30/t to feed wheat, at £161.20/t. Looking ahead at April and May delivery, ex-farm feed wheat prices were flat at £206.30/t, suggesting limited demand.
Today's Grain Market Daily is now now published - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/eu-crop-conditions-fair-so-far-grain-market-daily

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

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Wednesday 17 March
  • UK feed wheat futures (May-21) continued to move lower yesterday, down a further £2.60/t, to £200.00/t. This is the lowest close for the May contract since 10 February. The Nov-21 contract closed yesterday at £168.10/t, down £1.90/t on Monday’s close.
  • Chinese demand returned to the maize market yesterday, with a sale reported of 1.16Mt of maize. This is the largest individual sale since the 2.1Mt China purchased on 29 January.
  • Chicago maize prices (May-21) closed yesterday at $218.20/t. Since reaching a high of $221.25/t on 8 February, May-21 Chicago maize futures have generally drifted in a $10/t channel from $209.63/t up to $219.28/t.
Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/supply-side-watch-points-for-rapeseed-prices-grain-market-daily

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

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Thursday 18 March
  • Global wheat futures fell yesterday after SovEcon increased its forecast for the Russian 2021 wheat crop by 3.1Mt. The crop is now pegged at 79.3Mt, compared to 85.9Mt in 2020. The upgrade follows a mild winter and good recent rainfall.
  • For UK feed wheat futures, the impact on old crop prices was offset by a rise in Chicago maize prices. May-21 UK wheat futures were unchanged at £200.00/t, while Nov-21 price fell by £0.80/t to close at £167.30/t.
  • May-21 Chicago maize futures were supported by the purchase of US maize by China mentioned in yesterday’s Grain Market Daily.
  • There was also pressure on oilseed prices after rainfall in Argentina, which could stabilise soyabean yields. New crop (Nov-21) Paris rapeseed futures lost €6.00/t yesterday to close to €438.50/t.
Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/new-season-barley-prices-relatively-supported-analyst-s-insight

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

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Friday 19 March
  • London wheat futures (May-21) fell £1.25/t yesterday to close ay £198.75/t. This is the first time the may-21 contract dropped below £200.00/t since 10 February. This is a total loss of £5.50/t Thursday – Thursday. The Nov-21 contract lost £3.50/t over the same time period, closing at £166.25/t, yesterday.
  • Chicago maize markets were unfazed by the three days of US flash sales of maize this week to China, totalling of 3.08Mt. May-21 futures slipped back by $4.52/t from the previous close, to $215.16/t yesterday.
  • Soyabeans also continue to slide on the news of rains arriving in Argentina and increased plantings in the US. May-21 futures are on track for their second weekly decline and lost $9.37/t yesterday to close at $511.51/t.
  • On Thursday, oil prices fell for a fifth consecutive day and posted the biggest daily loss since April. This is due to increasing coronavirus concerns in Europe and a strengthening US dollar.
Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/how-could-brazilian-maize-production-affect-global-grain-prices

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

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Thursday 25 March
  • Old crop (May-21) feed wheat futures hit their lowest level since 18 Dec yesterday, closing £2.00/t lower, at £197.00/t.
  • New crop (Nov-21) UK feed wheat futures closed yesterday at £165.40/t, a fall of £0.60/t on the day. The Nov-21 contract has now fallen £5.10/t since the beginning of March. New crop futures have followed trends in the wider wheat market.
  • As we highlighted earlier this week, a lot of attention will be placed on the condition of crops and planting progress in North America in the coming months. With further good crop conditions and a strong US dollar, new crop Chicago wheat futures fell $2.02/t yesterday, closing at $229.47/t.
Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/analyst-insight-how-much-wheat-will-e10-ethanol-production-use

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

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Friday 26 March
  • UK feed wheat futures (May-21) fell further yesterday, closing £3.10/t down to £193.90/t. New crop futures (Nov-21) also fell yesterday after regaining a little ground on Thursday, closing at £164.00/t.
  • French soft wheat condition remained unchanged week-on-week, with 87% still rated good or excellent in the week ending 22 March, according to FranceAgriMer. For spring barley, the first estimate pegged 92% of crops in good or excellent condition,up from 86% last year.
  • Also, IKAR agricultural consultancy recently increased Russia’s 2021 wheat crop up 1.8Mt to 79.8Mt.
Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/2021-22-new-crop-grain-supply-forecasted-record-grain-market-daily

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

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Tuesday 30 March
  • UK feed wheat futures dropped again yesterday, falling £2.85/t to close at £192.90/t on the May-21 contract. New-crop Nov 2021 prices also tumbled, falling slightly less by £2.20/t to £161.95/t. These falls are ahead of the USDA prospective planting report, due tomorrow.
  • The latest Kansas crop condition report highlights crops are improving. For week ending 28 March, 50% were categorised as ‘good’ or ‘excellent’. This is up 5% from last week.
  • Heavy rains in Argentina look positive for wheat and barley sowing in May-July but may be too late for maize and soyabean yields after months of dry weather.
In Brazil, planting of the second maize crop is estimated to be 98% complete in the Centre-South region by AgRural. Delays caused farmers to sow outside the ideal window but so far, crops are developing well.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/sterling-has-been-strengthening-but-what-could-the-future-hold-grain-market-daily

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

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Wednesday 31 March
  • UK feed wheat futures (May-21) have lost £5.75/t since Friday’s close, closing last night at £190.00/t. New crop (Nov-21) has also lost ground since Friday, although only £2.90/t, closing last night at £161.25/t.
  • US soyabean futures (nearby) are on track for their first monthly loss since May 2020. This is due to improving weather in South America and expectations of increased US plantings in tonight’s USDA predicted plantings report.
  • Ukrainian wheat exports have fallen to a 5-month low on the back of limited demand. The maize area in Ukraine could fall by 14% according to consultancy APK-Inform, the largest reductions are seen in areas worst hit by droughts in 2020.
  • Oil prices fell by over 1% yesterday after the reopening of the Suez Canal and a rally in the strength of the US dollar.
Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/how-has-the-usda-stocks-and-acreage-reports-influenced-prices-over-the-last-decade-grain-market-daily

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

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Thursday 1 April
  • The UK May-21 feed wheat futures contract gained £4.00/t yesterday, closing at £194.00/t. New crop (Nov-21) contract gained too yesterday, up £3.25/t, closing at £164.50/t.
  • Global commodities markets were fuelled by the US stock and prospective planting reports. Both US maize and soyabean futures hit daily increase limits as the figures were lower than expected.
  • US maize futures (nearby) rose to its highest price since 2013 (bar 8 March 2021) at $5.64/bushel (£161.44/t). US farmers are expected to plant 91.14 million acres of maize, the highest since 2016. However, analysts had expected 93.21 million acres (Refinitiv poll). This missed estimate provided the incentive for US maize futures to close limit up.
Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/options-contracts-a-viable-marketing-strategy-grain-market-daily

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

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Wednesday 7 April
  • UK feed wheat futures lost more ground yesterday, despite a large weakening of sterling. Sterling fell by more than 1% against the euro and 0.5% against the US dollar. May-21 futures fell £1.35/t, closing at £189.00/t, the lowest close since early December 2020. The Nov-21 contract closed at £162.90/t, down £0.35/t from Thursday’s close.
  • Brazil’s second maize crop yields will fall by an estimated 3.6% this season, according to Agroconsult. This is due to a delayed soyabean harvest, meaning much of the maize area was planted outside the ideal window. Despite this, production is forecast to increase by 3.5%, due to a 7.3% rise in planted area.
  • Russian origin wheat was the lowest offered in the latest Egyptian wheat tender for delivery 01-10 August. Egypt’s state grain buyer (GASC) purchased 290Kt of Russian origin wheat and 55Kt of Ukrainian wheat.
Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/crop-conditions-report-shows-domestic-crops-are-doing-well-grain-market-daily

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

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Thursday 8 April
  • UK wheat futures (May-21) closed yesterday at £191.10/t, gaining £2.10/t on Tuesday’s close. New crop futures (Nov-21) gained by £1.00/t to close yesterday at £163.90/t.
  • Driving wheat markets yesterday was the dryness across the U.S. Plains, as this could affect spring wheat plantings.
  • Short-term tightness in the world supply and demand picture underpins maize markets. The market awaits the USDA supply and demand estimates released tomorrow.
Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - Why is it so important to fill out the AHDB Planting & Variety Survey?

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

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Friday 9 April
  • UK old crop (May-21) feed wheat futures gained £3.90/t yesterday, to close at £195.00/t. New crop futures (Nov-21) gained slightly less, £2.50/t, to close at £166.40/t.
  • The markets await the April world supply and demand estimates (WASDE) from the USDA due today. Prices also gained from a weakening US dollar.
  • US maize futures are set for a second weekly gain due to high export demand. According to official census data, February US maize exports totalled 6.3Mt. This is the highest monthly volume since July 2018. Export data collected weekly indicates March exports will likely exceed 9Mt: a record monthly total (Refinitiv).
  • Argentina’s 2020/21 soyabean crop was cut 1.0Mt to 43.0Mt by the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) yesterday due to dry weather. Over 5% of the first soyabean crop has now been harvested. The 2020/21 maize production estimate remained at 45.0Mt, of which 12% has been harvested.
Today's Grain Market Daily is now published -Global markets waiting for today's WASDE

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

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Tuesday 13 April
  • The UK May-21 feed wheat futures gained £0.65/t from Friday, to close at £196.65/t yesterday. But, the Nov-21 contract declined by £0.55/t, to close at £166.95/t yesterday.
  • Customs data for China highlights the huge level of demand from the country. Imports of soyabeans were up 82% year-on-year in March, bolstered by strong purchases and late arrivals of vessels booked for January and February. Total Chinese Q1 (Jan-Mar 2021) maize imports were 6.73Mt, up more than fivefold on last year.
  • The Russian agricultural consultancy firm IKAR increased its forecast for Russian wheat production in 2021 to 81Mt, from 79.8Mt. The increase is a result of a period of favourable weather across the Black Sea region.
Today's Grain Market Daily is now now published - US planting off to a strong start amid developing dryness

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

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Wednesday 14 April
  • UK feed wheat futures (Nov-21) closed yesterday at £169.50/t, a gain of £2.55/t on the day. Similarly old crop (May-21) futures gained £2.35/t, to close at £199.00/t.
  • UK futures largely followed the direction of Paris milling wheat futures. The Dec-21 Paris milling wheat futures contract closed yesterday at €202.00/t, up £2.25/t.
  • For wheat, dry weather in the Northern Hemisphere continues to be a key driver of markets. The EU and US look set for normal to low levels of rainfall in the coming weeks. With soil moisture in both regions already below normal.
  • Finally, for UK prices, currency has been a key influencer, sterling has fallen 2.2% against the euro since reaching its most recent peak on 5 April.
Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - First 2021 GB wheat production forecast

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

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Thursday 15 April
  • UK old crop (May-21) feed wheat futures firmed by £2.00/t yesterday to close at £201.00/t. This is the first time it has closed over £200.00/t for almost a month. New crop also firmed, up £2.55/t to close at £172.05/t. Again, the first time it has closed over £170.00/t in a month.
  • Chicago maize was the leader of yesterday’s rally. May-21 was up $3.48/t to close at $169.90/t and Dec-21 up $1.55/t to close at $146.23/t. Concerns over cold weather damage to crops is currently driving markets up.
  • A severe frost in France has caused some concerns for grain crops in the central and southern parts of the country, although it’s too early to tell the exact damage.
  • India’s palm oil imports in March were up 57% year on year. This is because it is currently an attractive alternative to sun oil, which is very expensive.
Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - How could maize prices in 2021/22 affect UK wheat prices?

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

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Friday 16 April
  • Nov-21 UK feed wheat futures prices rose £1.05/t yesterday to £173.10/t, the highest price to date for the contract.
  • UK new crop prices followed a global trend. Markets reacted to forecasts for cold weather in the US, which could pose a threat to newly planted maize and spring wheat crops. Dry weather is also expected to continue for both US and European wheat growing areas.
  • In the Chicago futures market, new crop wheat (Dec-21) rose $1.65/t yesterday, to $243.15/t. New crop maize (Dec-21) was up $0.39/t yesterday, to $201.27/t. The Nov-21 soyabean futures also gained $1.84/t to $466.23/t.
  • French cereal crop condition scores for 12 April fell on the week (FranceAgriMer), showing the impact of recent harsh frosts. 88% of spring barley is now rated good or very good, down 4 percentage points over a week. Winter barley and soft wheat fared better, with the scores down 2 and 1 percentage points respectively.
Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - Low stocks driving increased volatility

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

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Tuesday 20 April
  • UK feed wheat futures firmed slightly yesterday. Old crop (May-21) was up £0.20/t to close at £199.20/t and new crop (Nov-21) was up £0.65/t to close at £174.60/t.
  • The USDA’s latest crop progress report has said US maize plantings were up 4 percentage points on the week to 8% and are currently in line with the 5-year average. Soyabean planting is currently 3% complete, compared to the 5-year average of 2%.
  • This report also had 53% of US winter wheat rated in “good” or “excellent” condition. This is the same as the previous week, but behind this time last year when 57% was rated “good” to “excellent”.
  • Brazil has suspended import duties on maize, soyabeans, soyabean meal and soyabean oil in an attempt to dampen inflation driven by the rising global prices.
Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - New crop discount to old crop largest in almost a decade

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

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Wednesday 21 April
  • New crop UK feed wheat futures (Nov-21) continued their charge higher yesterday, closing at £178.00/t, a gain of £3.40/t. Yesterday marked the sixth consecutive day of gains for the contract.
  • May-21 UK wheat futures made more modest gains, closing at £201.35/t, up £2.15/t. Both the old crop and new crop took their steer from wider movements in global grain futures.
  • Gains for grains were seen in both Paris and Chicago futures markets, driven by new crop weather concerns and cuts to production forecasts. Yesterday, IHS Markit downgraded its estimate of the Safrinha maize crop by 5.6Mt, to 79.5Mt.
Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - Funds are mental, driving prices higher

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

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Thursday 22 April
  • UK feed wheat futures continue their climb yesterday, with May-21 futures closing up £3.95/t to £205.30/t. This is the largest daily gain in 3 weeks on the May contract. Whereas new-crop UK feed wheat futures for November-21 saw smaller gains, closing £1.75/t up, to £179.75/t. This was the seventh day of climbs.
  • Chicago maize futures gains are at the heart of these climbs, with nearby prices rising to the highest since 2013. Gains have been made over Brazil’s declining Safrinha crop conditions and US cold weather concerns threatening global supply.
  • China have reportedly bought 500-600Kt of new-crop French wheat, for shipping from July to September. This suggests China may continue to be an important destination for French wheat in 2021/22. There are also speculations of China buying Ukrainian maize.
  • The AHDB Planting and Variety Survey provides the only pre-harvest planting view of grain and oilseed crops. Play a part in creating accurate data for your industry by completing the planting survey form. Five minutes of your time can provide huge value to our great industry.
Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - Will China need to import as much maize next season?

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

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AGCO reports sales increase of 43.5% compared to 2020 figures

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Written by Agriland Team from Agriland

The tractor manufacturer AGCO, which consists of brands such as Challenger, Fendt, GSI, Massey Ferguson and Valtra, reported its results for the second quarter ending June 30, 2021.

Net sales for the second quarter were approximately $2.9 billion, an increase of approximately 43.5% compared to the second quarter of 2020.

AEM

Reported net income was $3.73/share for the second quarter of 2021, and adjusted...
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