AHDB daily market commentary

Friday 12 March
  • UK feed wheat futures (May-21) closed at £204.25/t yesterday, down £0.75/t. This is a far smaller fall than US and Paris wheat futures. It’s likely linked to a rise in Chicago maize futures because of uncertainty about South American production.
  • Paris wheat futures fell yesterday after Egypt bought Romanian, rather than French, wheat in its first tender for over a month. US prices closed lower as forecast rain could support winter wheat crops as they emerge from dormancy.
  • New crop (Nov-21) Paris rapeseed futures set another new contract high yesterday, rising €8.25/t to close at €446.50/t. This equates to approximately £382/t (Refintiv). Tight old crop supplies globally and expectations for only a slightly bigger European crop in 2021 are supporting prices.
  • If you missed our Spring Grain Market Outlook webinar on Tuesday, you can catch up by listening to the podcast. We talk about the key drivers for global and domestic markets, the path for fuel, fertiliser and interest rates, and the future of farm policy.
Today's Grain Market Daily is now now published - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/grain-markets-waiting-for-direction-grain-market-daily

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Tuesday 16 March
  • UK feed wheat (May-21) futures fell for the fifth consecutive day yesterday, to close at £202.60/t. The gap between old crop and new crop prices also narrowed further yesterday. The Nov-21 contract closed unchanged at £170.00/t. The UK market followed moves in the Paris milling wheat futures.
  • In the latest UK average ex-farm prices (Corn Returns), spot feed wheat gained £0.40/t to £204.50/t. Feed barley remains at a strong discount of £43.30/t to feed wheat, at £161.20/t. Looking ahead at April and May delivery, ex-farm feed wheat prices were flat at £206.30/t, suggesting limited demand.
Today's Grain Market Daily is now now published - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/eu-crop-conditions-fair-so-far-grain-market-daily

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

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Wednesday 17 March
  • UK feed wheat futures (May-21) continued to move lower yesterday, down a further £2.60/t, to £200.00/t. This is the lowest close for the May contract since 10 February. The Nov-21 contract closed yesterday at £168.10/t, down £1.90/t on Monday’s close.
  • Chinese demand returned to the maize market yesterday, with a sale reported of 1.16Mt of maize. This is the largest individual sale since the 2.1Mt China purchased on 29 January.
  • Chicago maize prices (May-21) closed yesterday at $218.20/t. Since reaching a high of $221.25/t on 8 February, May-21 Chicago maize futures have generally drifted in a $10/t channel from $209.63/t up to $219.28/t.
Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/supply-side-watch-points-for-rapeseed-prices-grain-market-daily

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

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Thursday 18 March
  • Global wheat futures fell yesterday after SovEcon increased its forecast for the Russian 2021 wheat crop by 3.1Mt. The crop is now pegged at 79.3Mt, compared to 85.9Mt in 2020. The upgrade follows a mild winter and good recent rainfall.
  • For UK feed wheat futures, the impact on old crop prices was offset by a rise in Chicago maize prices. May-21 UK wheat futures were unchanged at £200.00/t, while Nov-21 price fell by £0.80/t to close at £167.30/t.
  • May-21 Chicago maize futures were supported by the purchase of US maize by China mentioned in yesterday’s Grain Market Daily.
  • There was also pressure on oilseed prices after rainfall in Argentina, which could stabilise soyabean yields. New crop (Nov-21) Paris rapeseed futures lost €6.00/t yesterday to close to €438.50/t.
Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/new-season-barley-prices-relatively-supported-analyst-s-insight

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

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Friday 19 March
  • London wheat futures (May-21) fell £1.25/t yesterday to close ay £198.75/t. This is the first time the may-21 contract dropped below £200.00/t since 10 February. This is a total loss of £5.50/t Thursday – Thursday. The Nov-21 contract lost £3.50/t over the same time period, closing at £166.25/t, yesterday.
  • Chicago maize markets were unfazed by the three days of US flash sales of maize this week to China, totalling of 3.08Mt. May-21 futures slipped back by $4.52/t from the previous close, to $215.16/t yesterday.
  • Soyabeans also continue to slide on the news of rains arriving in Argentina and increased plantings in the US. May-21 futures are on track for their second weekly decline and lost $9.37/t yesterday to close at $511.51/t.
  • On Thursday, oil prices fell for a fifth consecutive day and posted the biggest daily loss since April. This is due to increasing coronavirus concerns in Europe and a strengthening US dollar.
Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/how-could-brazilian-maize-production-affect-global-grain-prices

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Thursday 25 March
  • Old crop (May-21) feed wheat futures hit their lowest level since 18 Dec yesterday, closing £2.00/t lower, at £197.00/t.
  • New crop (Nov-21) UK feed wheat futures closed yesterday at £165.40/t, a fall of £0.60/t on the day. The Nov-21 contract has now fallen £5.10/t since the beginning of March. New crop futures have followed trends in the wider wheat market.
  • As we highlighted earlier this week, a lot of attention will be placed on the condition of crops and planting progress in North America in the coming months. With further good crop conditions and a strong US dollar, new crop Chicago wheat futures fell $2.02/t yesterday, closing at $229.47/t.
Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/analyst-insight-how-much-wheat-will-e10-ethanol-production-use

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Friday 26 March
  • UK feed wheat futures (May-21) fell further yesterday, closing £3.10/t down to £193.90/t. New crop futures (Nov-21) also fell yesterday after regaining a little ground on Thursday, closing at £164.00/t.
  • French soft wheat condition remained unchanged week-on-week, with 87% still rated good or excellent in the week ending 22 March, according to FranceAgriMer. For spring barley, the first estimate pegged 92% of crops in good or excellent condition,up from 86% last year.
  • Also, IKAR agricultural consultancy recently increased Russia’s 2021 wheat crop up 1.8Mt to 79.8Mt.
Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/2021-22-new-crop-grain-supply-forecasted-record-grain-market-daily

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

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Tuesday 30 March
  • UK feed wheat futures dropped again yesterday, falling £2.85/t to close at £192.90/t on the May-21 contract. New-crop Nov 2021 prices also tumbled, falling slightly less by £2.20/t to £161.95/t. These falls are ahead of the USDA prospective planting report, due tomorrow.
  • The latest Kansas crop condition report highlights crops are improving. For week ending 28 March, 50% were categorised as ‘good’ or ‘excellent’. This is up 5% from last week.
  • Heavy rains in Argentina look positive for wheat and barley sowing in May-July but may be too late for maize and soyabean yields after months of dry weather.
In Brazil, planting of the second maize crop is estimated to be 98% complete in the Centre-South region by AgRural. Delays caused farmers to sow outside the ideal window but so far, crops are developing well.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/sterling-has-been-strengthening-but-what-could-the-future-hold-grain-market-daily

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

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Wednesday 31 March
  • UK feed wheat futures (May-21) have lost £5.75/t since Friday’s close, closing last night at £190.00/t. New crop (Nov-21) has also lost ground since Friday, although only £2.90/t, closing last night at £161.25/t.
  • US soyabean futures (nearby) are on track for their first monthly loss since May 2020. This is due to improving weather in South America and expectations of increased US plantings in tonight’s USDA predicted plantings report.
  • Ukrainian wheat exports have fallen to a 5-month low on the back of limited demand. The maize area in Ukraine could fall by 14% according to consultancy APK-Inform, the largest reductions are seen in areas worst hit by droughts in 2020.
  • Oil prices fell by over 1% yesterday after the reopening of the Suez Canal and a rally in the strength of the US dollar.
Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/how-has-the-usda-stocks-and-acreage-reports-influenced-prices-over-the-last-decade-grain-market-daily

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

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Thursday 1 April
  • The UK May-21 feed wheat futures contract gained £4.00/t yesterday, closing at £194.00/t. New crop (Nov-21) contract gained too yesterday, up £3.25/t, closing at £164.50/t.
  • Global commodities markets were fuelled by the US stock and prospective planting reports. Both US maize and soyabean futures hit daily increase limits as the figures were lower than expected.
  • US maize futures (nearby) rose to its highest price since 2013 (bar 8 March 2021) at $5.64/bushel (£161.44/t). US farmers are expected to plant 91.14 million acres of maize, the highest since 2016. However, analysts had expected 93.21 million acres (Refinitiv poll). This missed estimate provided the incentive for US maize futures to close limit up.
Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/options-contracts-a-viable-marketing-strategy-grain-market-daily

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

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Wednesday 7 April
  • UK feed wheat futures lost more ground yesterday, despite a large weakening of sterling. Sterling fell by more than 1% against the euro and 0.5% against the US dollar. May-21 futures fell £1.35/t, closing at £189.00/t, the lowest close since early December 2020. The Nov-21 contract closed at £162.90/t, down £0.35/t from Thursday’s close.
  • Brazil’s second maize crop yields will fall by an estimated 3.6% this season, according to Agroconsult. This is due to a delayed soyabean harvest, meaning much of the maize area was planted outside the ideal window. Despite this, production is forecast to increase by 3.5%, due to a 7.3% rise in planted area.
  • Russian origin wheat was the lowest offered in the latest Egyptian wheat tender for delivery 01-10 August. Egypt’s state grain buyer (GASC) purchased 290Kt of Russian origin wheat and 55Kt of Ukrainian wheat.
Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/crop-conditions-report-shows-domestic-crops-are-doing-well-grain-market-daily

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Thursday 8 April
  • UK wheat futures (May-21) closed yesterday at £191.10/t, gaining £2.10/t on Tuesday’s close. New crop futures (Nov-21) gained by £1.00/t to close yesterday at £163.90/t.
  • Driving wheat markets yesterday was the dryness across the U.S. Plains, as this could affect spring wheat plantings.
  • Short-term tightness in the world supply and demand picture underpins maize markets. The market awaits the USDA supply and demand estimates released tomorrow.
Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - Why is it so important to fill out the AHDB Planting & Variety Survey?

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

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Friday 9 April
  • UK old crop (May-21) feed wheat futures gained £3.90/t yesterday, to close at £195.00/t. New crop futures (Nov-21) gained slightly less, £2.50/t, to close at £166.40/t.
  • The markets await the April world supply and demand estimates (WASDE) from the USDA due today. Prices also gained from a weakening US dollar.
  • US maize futures are set for a second weekly gain due to high export demand. According to official census data, February US maize exports totalled 6.3Mt. This is the highest monthly volume since July 2018. Export data collected weekly indicates March exports will likely exceed 9Mt: a record monthly total (Refinitiv).
  • Argentina’s 2020/21 soyabean crop was cut 1.0Mt to 43.0Mt by the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) yesterday due to dry weather. Over 5% of the first soyabean crop has now been harvested. The 2020/21 maize production estimate remained at 45.0Mt, of which 12% has been harvested.
Today's Grain Market Daily is now published -Global markets waiting for today's WASDE

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

Click here to receive AHDB market intelligence content straight to your inbox - https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 

Early moves to target wild oats

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Growers and agronomists now face the dilemma of an early application to remove competition from emerged wild oats, or holding off to allow more weeds to germinate.

Syngenta grassweeds technical manager, Georgina Wood, urges Axial Pro treatment as soon as conditions allow, once weeds are actively growing.

“That offers the chance to control wild oats more cost effectively at lower rates, whilst there is still the flexibility to tailor application rates up to 0.82 l/ha for larger or over wintered weeds and difficult situations.

“The variability of crops and situations this season means decisions for appropriate Axial Pro rates and application techniques will need to be made on a field-by-field basis,” she advised.

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Miss Wood urges...
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